AA OOP on wet board

[minSim]

Villain in the hand 20/11/1.7 over 1.9k datamined hands from like half a year ago. His BTN steal stat is 25% and his cbet raise 16%.
No recent reads or history.

It's a very standard spot of course. We're a little bit deeper though and villain isn't really aggressive. What makes it a tad more interesting imo is that I'm at the very top of my range here when raising from the SB and vs a BTN's limp/calling range instead of a standard calling range.

For the people calling, please provide some plan for turn/river.

Also do you think having the Ah a positive (more equity) or negative (villain can't have the NFD) thing in general?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($33.20)
UTG ($76)
MP ($50)
CO ($24.05)
Button ($86.25)
Hero (SB) ($59.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, Hero bets $3.50, 2 folds, Button calls $3

Flop: ($8) 9, 5, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, Button raises to $15, hero ?

[mixchange]

limp calling from him is mostly small pairs and low-mid connected cards

pretty much an easy muck on the flop given that villain is not considered aggresive or the type to raise scary boards. Vs. other villains who know this board texture is bad for us we have to consider 3betting or flatting and playing the turn. A limp caller in this spot is not one of them though


having Ah makes fold easier

[kmind]

I agree completely with mixchange

[bjsaust]

Hmm, I normally call here then b/f turn. I just dont see a lot of people raise flops for value unless theres a broadway on the flop.

[edit] err, obviously lead out on blank turns I mean.

Then again, theres a heap of bad cards so maybe its better to just save money

[Fnord]

Never folding this in an online 6 max game. If he can beat Aces, good for him. I'm gamb00ling here.

[Marshall28]

There's like no way I'm bet/folding this hand on this flop. If I'm betting the flop I'm at least calling one raise and likely calling a bet on a good turn card.

The fact that you have the Ah is good and bad... It's good because if you're behind you have a nut draw, and it's bad because it removes a bunch of NFD's from villains range. But if this guy is pretty nitty anyways he likely didn't have a ton of NFD's in his range as it is?

[mixchange]

If a passive player doesn't have NFD's in his range here, what on earth is he raising the flop with?

[shame_on_me]

I bet he has a low-mid connector like 78s, 56s or a small pair.
I dont see people limp/calling and then raising this type of boards with air.

And I don't like calling this raise also. If we check and he bets turn we won't know what to do. If we bet and he raises we also will be in tough spot.

If you think this guy is not aggressive then he probably raises on this flop with two pairs, str8, set and sometimes FD. Some of this hands in my opinion he cannot have cuz his raise is rather small for this board texture.

Let's put in pokerstove his msot loose range for raising on this flop:


Hand 0: 44.855%
{ AhAs }
Hand 1: 55.145%
{ 77-55, KhTh, Ts9s, 8s7s, 6s5s }

This is an extremely loose range IMO and we better fold AA this time and see what he limp/calls IP with and what he raises this board textures with.

[Da GOAT]

I'm stacking here. I'll take my say 25% equity if behind

[minSim]

My thoughts are completely with mixchange's on this.

Also Marshall am I right you suggest checking this flop sometimes? As imo there's a ton of value in cbetting.
Against more aggressive villains that's a b/c or b/3bet, but checking can't be best can it?

[shame_on_me]

My thoughts are completely with mixchange's on this.

Also Marshall am I right you suggest checking this flop sometimes? As imo there's a ton of value in cbetting.
Against more aggressive villains that's a b/c or b/3bet, but checking can't be best can it?

I'm not Marshall but...
Against aggressive villains it's an easy b/3bet but aggro players don't play limp/calling OTB imo.

And I think checking sometimes this flop is good. What do u think is the value of cbetting this board texture? It's all about his limp/calling range.

[minSim]

Any FD, 9x, pair+gutshot, anything else these loose passives decide to call with IP.

[Marshall28]

I wasn't really saying one was better than the other, was just saying that if I did decide to bet the flop, I wouldn't be folding to a single 2.5x raise from a player who's range I'm unsure of.

So you have 2k hands on this guy and have no idea how often he raises the flop and/or what he likes to raise the flop with???

It's good to bet if you expect him to call (and not raise) very very often.

Against a better player I'm checking here pretty often, either to c/r or c/c-->lead good turns.