AA iffy board weird action

[drmcboy]

This is the mini FTOPS ME, 50 FO, 20 hands in. Both Vs have passive stats, I was eating dinner so I dunno where MPs chips went (started with 7500).

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t10537)
UTG+1 (t6840)
MP1 (t5483)
MP2 (t6970)
Hero (CO) (t7435)
Button (t7510)
SB (t7260)
BB (t7965)

Hero's M: 165.22

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
2 folds, MP1 bets t90, 1 fold, Hero raises to t270, Button calls t270, 2 folds, MP1 calls t180

Flop: (t855) J, 9, 8 (3 players)
MP1 bets t30, Hero raises to t530, Button raises to t1290, 1 fold, Hero

[Fjaman]

looks icky but he could do that with J10,1010-KK, i would just call and re-evalutate on the turn

[dafu]

looks icky but he could do that with J10,1010-KK, i would just call and re-evalutate on the turn

I agree I could call also. Never know another ace could come on the turn. Or on the very rare occasion you guys could split the pot with pocket aces. seen it happen once.

[mcatdog]

Seems like a very easy fold vs. such a passive opponent.

[2ndline.4thstreet]

Am I the only one that thinks this should be a shove here?

[Fjaman]

you could shove but you are too deep, you will only get call when your beat

[Sprayed]

Over pair, drawy board, passive player becomes aggressive, deep stacks = fold.

[golfguy37]

I think that was a nice fold if they truly are passive. I'm guessing one of them had a strait, and the other maybe had two pair.

[chardrian]

what do passive stats mean?

if they are based solely on preflop stats it doesn't mean much for his postflop play.

[fjuanl]

Seems pretty close if you take out QT from his range. Given he cold called a 3bet, I'd say its pretty unlikely that he has QT. Kinda debatable since your 250BB's deep. There might be more clubs in his range too

w/o QT

Board: Js 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.958% 48.29% 02.66% 12909 712.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 49.042% 46.38% 02.66% 12397 712.00 { JJ+, 99-88, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc }

with QT

42,570 games 0.005 secs 8,514,000 games/sec

Board: Js 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.209% 31.37% 01.84% 13353 784.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 66.791% 64.95% 01.84% 27649 784.00 { JJ+, 99-88, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc, QTs, QTo }

Sets and overpairs only

Board: Js 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.266% 47.12% 03.15% 10263 685.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 49.734% 46.59% 03.15% 10147 685.00 { JJ+, 99-88 }

[golfguy37]

Someone is going to have to explain the whole equity thing to me. I'm clueless.

[bigspenda73]

google

[mcatdog]

what do passive stats mean?

if they are based solely on preflop stats it doesn't mean much for his postflop play.

More often than not, guys who have passive preflop stats are going to be passive postflop as well. I mean you're not wrong that there are plenty of exceptions, and you're definitely right that actually seeing the lines he's taken postflop would be best. Unfortunately, doc was eating dinner so he can't give us anything more substantial.

I really disagree with the mentality that your reads need to be rock solid before you can apply them in any way. I jump to conclusions all the time that are obviously shaky but it's got to be better than playing completely in the dark!

[drmcboy]

i folded FWIW. in the chat he said "QQ" ldo

the stats are just pre

[revolvingiris]

Seems pretty close if you take out QT from his range. Given he cold called a 3bet, I'd say its pretty unlikely that he has QT. Kinda debatable since your 250BB's deep. There might be more clubs in his range too

w/o QT

Board: Js 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.958% 48.29% 02.66% 12909 712.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 49.042% 46.38% 02.66% 12397 712.00 { JJ+, 99-88, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc }

with QT

42,570 games 0.005 secs 8,514,000 games/sec

Board: Js 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.209% 31.37% 01.84% 13353 784.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 66.791% 64.95% 01.84% 27649 784.00 { JJ+, 99-88, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc, QTs, QTo }

Sets and overpairs only

Board: Js 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.266% 47.12% 03.15% 10263 685.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 49.734% 46.59% 03.15% 10147 685.00 { JJ+, 99-88 }

@ drmcboy when you say passive, do you mean their play style? I mean yes obviously but I was wondering if you have anything on their pf hand selection. If bb is semi-loose/passive than the above hand range needs to be opened up a little more....I wish I wouldnt have read the whole post because I know the "outcome".