AJ in BB on the bubble, shove?

[rong]

$10 + $1, 10 man SnG on Titan. Blinds are 150/300.

Villain has been pushing a lot for the last few hands and as such I estimate his range as 22+, Ax+, Kx+, Q9+, JTs+. I'm confident I'm well ahead of his range, but not sure if it is correct to shove as I am confident he will call & have no ICM calculator.

Button MichaelHuzzle (6280)
SB tquenzentes (1960)
BB Hero (2805)
UTG conco2 (3955)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with A J
1 fold, MichaelHuzzle raises to 1200, 1 fold, Hero?????

[taipan168]

This sounds insane, but unless opp is raising wide and will only call your shove over tight, we have to fold this. Opp is getting better than 2.5 to 1 on the call and because he is the big stack he's still well in the game if he calls and loses.

You're well ahead of his range from a chip equity perspective but once you throw ICM into the mix, it's becomes a fold.

Why don't you get SNG Wiz? If you're serious about SNGs (which it sounds like you are) it is indispensable IMO.

[golfguy37]

What? If hes been raising every hand, chances are he's way ahead. ANd hes already got 1 BB invested. I would definately make this call.

[rong]

Thanks Tai, once I move house & have free cash again I am definitely going to get it (should be next week, fingers crossed).

But I had a feeling I should have folded this hence why I asked the question, although I knew I was way ahead (worse still I was super confident he would have a weak dominated Ace) I just thought due to stack sizes this should be a fold.

GOlfguy, the 1 big blind already invested is irrelevant aside from what it does to the current pot size(ie the fact I put it in is irrelevant) all that matters is the total in the pot, my remaining stack size, villlains stack size & the other players stack sizes. You can consider my bigblind like a sunk cost from accounting.

[kevster]

You're well ahead of his range from a chip equity perspective but once you throw ICM into the mix, it's becomes a fold.

+1

[golfguy37]

1)oh OK, did you end up losing the hand? 2)Would you have gone all in if you weren't on the Bubble?

[rong]

1) yes he had A5 & hit a straight
2) depends how the extra player changes the chip distribution I guess.

Tai, if he had shoved preflop & turned over A5 before I made the decision, would it still be correct to fold or would this be an insta call then?

[majiktiki]

Always fold this hand on the bubble, It will just get you in trouble, over and over again.
From experience come this reply.
I always was shoving and the number of times i get smacked by poket jack queens king and even aces, and then dont make the money is about a 7-1 ratio.
fold it.
especially against me LOL

[Lance]

You're well ahead of his range from a chip equity perspective but once you throw ICM into the mix, it's becomes a fold.

100%.

What about AKo, QQ ? Can you anybody let it go through the Wizard ? (my trial version is up )

[taipan168]

You're well ahead of his range from a chip equity perspective but once you throw ICM into the mix, it's becomes a fold.

100%.

What about AKo, QQ ? Can you anybody let it go through the Wizard ? (my trial version is up )

From memory, with the ranges that I used (which I think was that opp was raising about 35% of hands which roughly approximated opp's estimate of big stack's range) I think the shove over range was TT+, AK. Whether we shove over wider is read dependent on opp. In a game if opp has been raising very wide my range would be 88+, AQ+.