$4,40/180, itm, QQ

[lestic]

What would you do here? We've just made itm. BB is 15/8 after 26 hands, I don't have much of a read on him.

If I call and beat him, I've got a very good stack to enter final table - or I'm out and getting double my buy-in back.
Even my current stack would be ok for the final table, they're pretty soft in these.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00+$0.40 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 75 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t24996)
Button (t8600)
Hero (SB) (t22011)
BB (t21756)
UTG (t7723)
UTG+1 (t21598)
MP1 (t22715)
MP2 (t4246)

Hero's M: 12.23

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
UTG calls t800, 5 folds, Hero bets t3200, BB raises to t21681 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ???

[mcatdog]

If I call and beat him, I've got a very good stack to enter final table - or I'm out and getting double my buy-in back.
Even my current stack would be ok for the final table, they're pretty soft in these.

These are pretty much exactly the wrong things you should be considering in this spot.

What do you think his range is?

[baudib]

I would never fold in this spot.

[lestic]

If I call and beat him, I've got a very good stack to enter final table - or I'm out and getting double my buy-in back.
Even my current stack would be ok for the final table, they're pretty soft in these.

These are pretty much exactly the wrong things you should be considering in this spot.

What do you think his range is?

I'd say it's about AJ+, possibly any pair. Could be even broader if he thinks I'm stealing, and I've been stealing a fair bit in the last few rounds..

[baudib]

Just shove it in preflop. Your raise is essentially pot-committing UTG. We know he's terrible because he's limping for 10% of his stack and he's very likely to call with any pair, any A, etc. If he calls this raise you really can't fold even on an A-high flop so just get it in.

[baudib]

If I call and beat him, I've got a very good stack to enter final table - or I'm out and getting double my buy-in back.
Even my current stack would be ok for the final table, they're pretty soft in these.

These are pretty much exactly the wrong things you should be considering in this spot.

What do you think his range is?

I'd say it's about AJ+, possibly any pair. Could be even broader if he thinks I'm stealing, and I've been stealing a fair bit in the last few rounds..

I think you just answered your own question, turning this from a instafistpump call to a yaylolfistpump call.

If you needed any extra assurance, the UTG donk's limping range has a ton of Ax and Kx, making your equity even greater.

[Fjaman]

all in!

[hopeful]

I would put the range much tighter than any pair, AJ+.
In this spot it could be as tight as JJ+, AQ+.

Against my tight range QQ is still a favourite, you have to call.

[mcatdog]

I'd say it's about AJ+, possibly any pair. Could be even broader if he thinks I'm stealing, and I've been stealing a fair bit in the last few rounds..

Then I don't understand why you posted this thread, call obviously.

[Poker Orifice]

I'd say it's about AJ+, possibly any pair. Could be even broader if he thinks I'm stealing, and I've been stealing a fair bit in the last few rounds..[/quote]

So you've created a bit of a loose/aggressive image, you figure he thinks you've been stealing (because you have been),... haven't you been setting him up for exactly a situation like this one?
That said,.... what would keep you from calling?

[lestic]

Thanx for the replies!
And of course I called him, and won the flip against his AK.
It just got me wondering afterwards, that whether this kind of flip was a bit too risky at this stage of the tourney..

[mcatdog]

It just got me wondering afterwards, that whether this kind of flip was a bit too risky at this stage of the tourney..

Please quantify this question. What percent equity do you think you need for the "risk" to be worth it?

[lestic]

It just got me wondering afterwards, that whether this kind of flip was a bit too risky at this stage of the tourney..

Please quantify this question. What percent equity do you think you need for the "risk" to be worth it?

60 / 40 ?

What do you think?

[baudib]

You don't need an edge to call in this spot. You should call this with AQo.

[Sprayed]

I would even take the equity below in order to win, because that is your goal.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

421,226,784 games 0.005 secs 84,245,356,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.371% 50.99% 01.38% 214798848 5801790.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 47.629% 46.25% 01.38% 194824356 5801790.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

[AFchung]

I would even take the equity below in order to win, because that is your goal.

we could actually take slightly worse equity than that given the dead money in the pot

[revolvingiris]

open push pf/insta-call his AI

[golfguy37]

CALL!!! He has AK, JJ, or 1010.