99 facing donk bet.

[Carroters]

Just had an interesting discussion with a friend about this hand I played today and hoping we can go through it stage by stage. Wondering what people think our play on this flop should be and what our turn plan is. I'll post the turn when we've had some discussion about the flop.

Villain is 20/14 over 30 hands and pretty much an unknown to me.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($22.42)
Button ($5.09)
SB ($22.32)
BB ($19.70)
UTG ($60.03)
Hero (MP) ($20.43)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, 9
1 fold, Hero bets $0.80, 2 folds, SB calls $0.70, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.80) 10, 8, 4 (2 players)
SB bets $1.60

Total pot: $1.80

[Illfavor]

Aren't we either crushed or barely head here? A common theme arising recently on this forum is calculating our equity on boards full of draws. We consistently get responses from people saying how "they" would play it with little regard to how the villain might. Everyone speaks from their own experience, but my experience at 10-25NL has not included many players who are hyper-aggressive with their draws. Has yours? Most microdonks are extremely passive, imo. They do not typically donk/cr/raise with NFDs. A bet typically means they have it. A near pot-sized donkbet on a wet board is likely a very strong draw, or some TP/set type hand. We don't really beat anything on this board, and will be folding to every non-9 turn bet. I just let this go.

[2ndline.4thstreet]

I think this is either a raise or a fold situation for me. 2 overcards is in his range here and I can see being ahead although not by much. Villain dependent for me.

[kmind]

I'd just muck. I put his range on sets/rarely JJ/and then overs + FD. This has us crushed.

[lockpull]

A common theme arising recently on this forum is calculating our equity on boards full of draws. We consistently get responses from people saying how "they" would play it with little regard to how the villain might.

Starting to understand some of your post back a little more after reading this.... so I take back some of the thoughts I had about them. (there is no handshake emoticon so just imagine it)


As for the hand ..... what could the SB be calling a raise with then betting the flop that big OOP? His stats don't seem too loose/spewey to me. Do you know his aggression factor? Our best case scenario is two overcards, 22-33 (unlikley), 55-77 (maybe but a big bet for these unless he puts us on overcards). We will also be in a difficult spot on any card that hits the turn, even a 9 IMO. I think we will end up in a very uncomfortable position for what looks like a big pot brewing based off flop action. In other people's opinions, is there more value in folding to his flop bet trying to induce these kind of bets from him later when we have a better spot or calling this one bet to see what he does on the turn when called down on the flop?

[Vinland]

I run into this a lot, so what kind of a board do we NOT fold to a donk bet?

Aren't the villains often just assuming that with that board, it probably didn't help you so they bluff at it thinking your sitting there with 2 high unpaired cards and likely to fold?

[Carroters]

Yeah folding to donk bets often feels wrong. People just love to slow play at these limits so I wouldn't give villain as strong a range as the posters above have. I think there's more than just strong draws, and stronger made hands. I'd put A8, A6, as well as lower pps and random overs just as agenral range for the avg 20NL player who donks out.

Folding is maybe best though sicne all turn bets are going to fold us out and there's plenty bad turns that make our equity look even worse. Also, we have 2 outs if behind......

I just feel this is such a weak line though and decided to call and evaluate the turn - this was a little rash and not thought through since I was 6 tabling and in a hetic spell.

Turn:

Villain bets pot, ez fold?

[Illfavor]

Starting to understand some of your post back a little more after reading this.... so I take back some of the thoughts I had about them. (there is no handshake emoticon so just imagine it)

Carroters, you will rarely go wrong by assuming your opponents range is too tight (within reason). A6 makes no sense on this board, and is stretching to make a call not bad, imo. Folding when you are likely dominated isn't "weak." His range is not folding to a raise. We are beaten, shrug, and wait for the next hand. Yes, micro donks spazz out sometimes, but without reads there's really no point in trying to bluff-catch with 2 more rounds of betting.

Muck turn imo.

[BooG690]

I'm curious as to why we wouldn't raise here and see exactly where we stand? He may call and NOT bet the turn. If he reraises, we're gone. If he folds...you know the story.

I'm new to this...so maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I would play such a hand. If I'm not raising, I'm definitely folding. Calling wouldn't be an option.

[Illfavor]

I'm curious as to why we wouldn't raise here and see exactly where we stand? He may call and NOT bet the turn. If he reraises, we're gone. If he folds...you know the story.

I'm new to this...so maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I would play such a hand. If I'm not raising, I'm definitely folding. Calling wouldn't be an option.

What hands in his range are folding to the flop raise? We bet
(raise) for bluffs and for value. You're saying raise to fold out the second pair hands and keep in all the ones that beat us. Is his range mostly air/2ndpair/crap or hands that beat us? A raise turns our hand into a -ev bluff.

[BooG690]

I'm curious as to why we wouldn't raise here and see exactly where we stand? He may call and NOT bet the turn. If he reraises, we're gone. If he folds...you know the story.

I'm new to this...so maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I would play such a hand. If I'm not raising, I'm definitely folding. Calling wouldn't be an option.

What hands in his range are folding to the flop raise? We bet
(raise) for bluffs and for value. You're saying raise to fold out the second pair hands and keep in all the ones that beat us. Is his range mostly air/2ndpair/crap or hands that beat us? A raise turns our hand into a -ev bluff.

Good point. But isn't it possible that he may have overcards and be simply bluffing? Maybe he has A4spades and a raise will get us a free card on the turn. When do we NOT fold flops like this to donk bets? I honestly believe he's on a flush draw (perhaps catching the 4) and I would just like a deeper understanding of when NOT to fold this.

[Carroters]

Yeah rasing for information is such a dumb thing to do hence raising the flop forces him to only continue with hands that crush us or have good equity vs us. A raise solely for the purpose of information with a marginal hand is just a bluff and this isn't going to be a profitable one.

Illfavor - I'm in no way arguing this should be a call, but I think calling > raising and these "raising to find out where we are" ideas should be shot down so people on this forum don't raise solely for this purpose. Finding out information is a bonus that comes with making the most +EV play.

Okay what if villain donks half pot, now what's our play?

[BooG690]

Got it...I appreciate the explanations guys.

[lockpull]

I think there are some weaker hands in his range than sets, Overpairs, FD's when they make this sort of play. But if we sart adding in all the hands that they might have after flatting your raise that still make some sense with their flop bet:
Hand 0: 43.392% 43.25% 00.14% 53520 177.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 56.608% 56.47% 00.14% 69876 177.00 { TT, 88-33, ATs, As9s, A8s, A4s, KQs, KsJs, KTs, QsJs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, ATo, A8o, KQo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o }

I know this range may be wide but if we are going to assume he bluffs this big with air or calls PF raise wide then there is my opinion. Calling would be better than raising here since we are in position but it still puts us in a difficult position since almost any turn card completes some part of his range that beats us.

I am still working on hand ranging and thinking throughout the entire hand/future hands instead of concentrating on the current bet/call so let me know if any of this doesn't sound right.