TPWK from da blindies (10NL)

[kfaess]

Villain is 77/0/0.8 over 28 hands. Analysis to follow HH:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed)

MP ($14.20)
Button ($6.55)
SB ($5.25)
Hero (BB) ($10)
UTG ($3.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 3
UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.30) K, 2, 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, UTG calls $0.20, 1 fold

Turn: ($0.70) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40

River: ($1.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.45 (All-In), Hero insta mucks??


Alright so his limping range is basically any two cards. SB also seems somewhat loose and completes so we don't really have any info from the preflop action.

We flop Top pair with a weak kicker on a pretty dry board. I bet out two thirds of the pot for value to try and get a FD, 7, pp under K, and maybe a deuce or high cards to call. He calls and the small blind folds. After he calls I'll set his range at {AK, A7, A2, KQ-K2, Q7-57, Q2-J2, AcQc-Ac2c, QcJc-Qc2c, JcTc-Jc8c, QQ-88, AQo-AJ0 (the random high cards)}

I didn't include AA, KK in this range because I think he would have either raise pf or raised the flop. He has a fold to c-bet of 67%, so even though this isn't a raised pot I don't think he's contuning very often with nothing here.

Hands with a king: 82 (we're behind 76 of them)
Hands with a 7: 108
Hands with only pair of 2's: 24
Flush Draw: 21
pocket pair: 30
High cards: 32

So given my estimation of his range, the range is weighed towards a 7 or a K, with (2's+FD+pp+high cards) added together about as likely as a 7 or K. In poker stove our equity at this point is 61.6%.

Turn comes an 8 and I lead out .40 into .70 again for value. Its not that big becuase I want his 7's and FD's to continue still. He calls the bet and I think we can only eliminate the 2's and High cards from the range above. So now his range is {AK, A7, A2, KQ-K2, Q7-57, AcQc-Ac2c, QcJc-Qc2c, JcTc-Jc8c, QQ-88} Against this range we have 59% equity.

River comes another 8 and I checked to give him a chance to bluff his FD's and bet his 7's. If he bet my plan was to call a small-med sized bet.

He shoves river and /w and AF of 0.8 I think we're almost always behind here. When I was actually playing I didn't really pay attention to his AF and I was trying to think what he might shove. I came to the conclusion that it wasn't that likely he would shove a marginal king, so either he has a good king, and 8, or hes bluffing. Looking back at it now, even if thats the case I still don't think he's bluffing often enough (could someone tell me how we calculate the percentage he needs to be bluffing for us to call his river bet given his shoving range and our pot odds?)

I ended up convincing myself to call and he had: (In white hereHe had 78.)

Obviously I wasn't thinking this in depth at the table but the logic above regarding why to bet and the bet sizing was in my thought process during the hand.

In the replies, could you say something besides "I wouldn't call the river" becuase I already know its a bad river call.

Thanks

split at best

[dev]

Remove the word 'blindies' from the title, and I guarantee you get more responses.

[xX zorrito Xx]

check/fold the flop and lead the turn if it's checked around imo...

[bigspenda73]

split at best

check/fold the flop and lead the turn if it's checked around imo...

Remove the word 'blindies' from the title, and I guarantee you get more responses.

stop posting if this is all you're going to say

OP, the flop bet is fine, as is the turn. The river is a tough spot, have we seen him check down any bricked draws in the past? Have we seen him play flush draws aggressively? Have you seen him slowplay big hands on draw-heavy boards.

[dev]

sir yes sir...

28 hands isn't enough to get a read on his post flop play, but since he VP$IP'd 22 of those hands he's probably a loose passive donk. This could be a flush draw, but the odds we're getting are so bad that I think we just have to accept the loss and fold. Valuetowning this guy was the way to go, but given the size of that river bet, we can wait and stack him later.

If we want to bang our heads up against the wall and put him on a thinking player's range, the way he plays this really only says 8cxc, k8, 87, 77,22.

[Da GOAT]

why are we checking river??? imo utg isnt limping a huge amount of Kx hands in comparison to SC and suited broadways, so i like a c/c plan for river, the overbet sucks for us abit but he is also doing this on a now paired flop. Alot of opp's may not even VB a Kx hand on river so i call and expect to see a missed draw.

[dev]

Hmm, I like the blocking bet option better. But against a passive opponent I think we have to fold as played.

[Fnord]

Check the turn.

[bigspenda73]

Check the turn.

why?

[kfaess]

OP, the flop bet is fine, as is the turn. The river is a tough spot, have we seen him check down any bricked draws in the past? Have we seen him play flush draws aggressively? Have you seen him slowplay big hands on draw-heavy boards.

No I didn't really have any reads since this was the first time I'd played with this guy. IMO, without any reads we just have to go by his AF, which is at 0.8. With this AF I'm going to assume he won't play draws aggressively and won't make a large river bet as a bluff. Against a more aggressive player I would probably be more inclined to call the river bet because its a pretty bluffy looking bet when the player is a thinking player.

Fnord wrote:
Check the turn.


why?

Yea I'm also confused as to why you would want to check the turn. A large portion of his range is FD's and a pair of sevens, and I don't think we want to give a free card to those hands. I would rather bet for value because this guy is sooo loose and will def call with worse. Why not get value when he's probably not folding most of the hands we beat?

One comment: When I go back and pick hands from a session that I'd like some feedback on, I often find myself saying 'its a fold because of his AF', so I think I need to start paying more attention to this stat because I seem to be overlooking it when I'm playing.

[bigspenda73]

why?

It defines our hand, makes the pot bigger and stops him from double barrel bluffing.

these aren't argument for checking the turn

[dev]

They aren't meant to be, that's why the next line starts with "However".

However :P, I think our opponent is so loose passive that we're better off betting the turn and going for value.

[Fnord]

Nevermind, thought this was blind defense.

Yeah, bet more on the turn and bet the river too because he sucks.

pot on the turn and shove the river is a line I would like because then it's up to him to determine a way to pay us off

[Fnord]

Potting the flop makes it a lot easier to get it in by the river if you want to. Something to keep in mind in these dinky little limp pots. What you lose in bluff value you will more than make up for by being able to make bigger value bets later.

[kfaess]

Potting the flop makes it a lot easier to get it in by the river if you want to.

I don't think we want to get this in unless we improve since we only have TP??

Something to keep in mind in these dinky little limp pots. What you lose in bluff value you will more than make up for by being able to make bigger value bets later.

That's a great point, especially in this case since we're facing a passive opponent who likes to call, so we can expect to be bluffed less and make more on value bets.

[Fnord]

I don't think we want to get this in unless we improve since we only have TP??

Is he terrible enough to call with worse?

What if we turn two pair?

Also, consider the range of hands you're betting here. Potting the flop gives you move options when you want to put in three big bets without having to put in a make-up bet.

[Otter_Brothface]

I would be betting all 3 of the streets because we have a king hand that has made top pair. If the other guy is going to play this passive we can make him suffer for the times he had middle pair. I think if we check the river we are letting him give us a hard question that might mean we are make mistakes.

[kfaess]

kfaess wrote:

I don't think we want to get this in unless we improve since we only have TP??


Is he terrible enough to call with worse?

What if we turn two pair?

Also, consider the range of hands you're betting here. Potting the flop gives you move options when you want to put in three big bets without having to put in a make-up bet.

I don't know him well enough to know whether he would stack off with worse so I usually just assume they won't stack off with worse than TP.

I def agree that potting the flop and betting bigger on the turn is the correct play here since it prob gets us more value than making smaller bets and hoping to induce calls from worse/bluffs against a passive call station.