Should I have bet the turn? Hand History

[loonychune]

Hello FTR members,

Would appreciate your input here:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) -

Villain is 40/10 over about 10 hands. I had him pegged as really pretty poor.

MP3 ($9.55)
CO ($28.05)
Button ($5)
Hero (SB) ($20)
BB ($38.95)
UTG ($10)
Villain (UTG+1) ($12.30)
MP1 ($10.20)
MP2 ($19.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , K

UTG calls $0.10, Villain calls $0.10, 3 folds, CO raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.40, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.30, Villain calls $1.30, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.70) K , 2 , J (3 players)
Hero bets $2.60, 1 fold, Villain calls $2.60

Turn: ($9.90) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $16 (All-In), Villain calls $8.30 (All-In)

River: ($26.50) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $26.50 | Rake: $2

My flop bet was a bit rushed, i'd rather liked to have bet $3.50, but hey...

I'd seen him call to showdown with a horrible hand the hand previous to this one, so think his pf calling range is probably pretty wide. Assuming he's not too concerned about the fact i'm 3-betting, i put him on this range when he calls my flop bet:

JJ+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KTo+,QTo+ and basically any Adxd.

Now when the turn comes the Tc, against that kind of range i've got about 57% equity.

Is that range probably too wide? Maybe he's so bad he doesn't play all the Adxd hands but calls pf and the flop with 9T,Q9s, 88+? In that case i've got about 54% equity.
I think also I should have checked the turn? But I really don't think I can fold this hand anyway(?) and want him to pay me with KQ and draws...

Thanks

[kb coolman]

Big overbet on the turn, but meh. If he's calling down light as you say, I'll stack off with TPTK.

[Erpel]

Ok, looking at this from villain's perspective.

New hand, I'm UTG+1. I have two cards in front me.
UTG limps, I look at my cards. I choose to also limp.

What hands are he limping with?

CO raises, SB 3bets a pretty big amount. UTG calls (limp-call of a 3bet). I choose to also limp-call a 3bet.

What hands are he limp-overcalling a 3bet with?

I mean really? Ok he's poor, but even then he won't just limp-overcall a 3bet with any two cards. We have 10 hands on him which is nothing, and we've already seen him raise once. Any hand like JJ he has to raise when UTG limps unless he's a complete retard. Someone has already expressed an interest in playing a hand - time to make it expensive for him to play so raising JJ+ is pretty mandatory. There's always the argument for open limping AA to let other people think they have a chance in the pot, but that's open limping. It doesn't apply anywhere near as strongly when someone else has already limped - he really should have raised any big pocket pairs when UTG limps in front of him.

Maybe he's a special kind of stupid and will limp after with big pocket pairs - but we do know from the one (!) time he raised that he does raise occasionally - and if he doesn't raise with big pocket pairs, what does he raise with?

All this is less important - the important question here is what he would limp-overcall a 3b with. It cannot be total trash, and tbh I struggle to identify any hand that justifies that move. As it turns out he ends up with position, but at the time he calls he can't even be confident of that as CO might call also. It almost has to be a hand that plays really really well multiway. I guess I can half make an argument for Axs hands hoping for the CO to call and playing for the nut flush. I can't really realistically give anyone credit for anything else.

Ok, back to us. What's our plan when we 3bet AK PF? We want to set up a favourable SPR and stack off on any A or K high flop.

Flop gives us an SPR of 1.9 and 2.3 against our two opponents and we hit our K. Even though it's multiway SPR is low enough that it's time to follow through, commit to the pot and stack off. Even if they may have an AdXd hand, for every AdXd hand they have they also have 3 other suited hands that are not diamond suited. If they both have AXs in a different suit they both fold, if one of them has JJ+, Ad7d+ we're about even money, if they both have a hand like that we're a bit behind and if we take JJ+ out of the range we're even better off. Play with PokerStove imo.

Generally, the flop is wet enough that a small cbet is almost automatically wrong. A flush draw is given good implied odds on seeing a turn card basically. Because of the limited stack size I wouldn't insist on a flop cbet over $4, but $3.5 I think is also at the lower end for a wet flop. We're looking to get the money in here, preferably on the flop imo.

[Erpel]

Big overbet on the turn, but meh. If he's calling down light as you say, I'll stack off with TPTK.

What overbet? Hero bets $8.30 into $9.90. The fact that it's easier to go all-in than type out a bet that matches the effective stack size doesn't really change that.

[will641]

not sure what the question is exactly...this is totally standard. you could bet flop like $3 so the turn seems like an easier call to him, but fairly inconsequential.