100NL AQ TP vs nit

[mg0698]

Villian is 17/11/8 over 93 hands, river looks like a real good value bet. What do you guys think? Comments on all streets appreciated.

Button ($102.35)
SB ($100)
BB ($119.30)
UTG ($100)
Hero (MP) ($101.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) A, 2, 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12

River: ($41.50) 6 (2 players)
UTG bets $34, [color=#666666][i]Hero ????

[nutsinho]

sigh and click the middle button

[bode]

edit: im special needs and didnt read right. i call probably.

[jimmy44]

I don't agree that river seems like a good value bet.
You've called 2x 2/3 PSB on flop and turn. Then villain fires 7/8 on river ... This looks to me to be more a bluff then a value bet. A good value bet would be more like 2/3 PSB again.
Villain's hand:
You are only behind 3 hands (IMO): AA/AK/22 and maybe 66.
I believe that a 17/11/8 player with AA/22 would c/r turn.
So I'd say that the only hands you are behind are AK and maybe 66. 88 he would have maybe c/r or c/c turn.
Your hand from villain's perpective:
You call 2 streets a 2x 2/3 PSB, so he either put's you on a FD, a weak A, something like TT-KK or maybe a 2.[/u]
So your range is pretty weak here. Therefore, why bet 7/8 river?

[nutsinho]

to make u think he is bluffing because he thinks u have a static calling range on this board...if hes any good