Deep vs I Win Flips 3 bet pot

[thizzSantaCruz]

Villain is I Win Flips. Hes a very successful 2p2er and runs 31/25. Since I have just started playing 1k NL he probably views me as scared money.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($2136)
UTG ($2000)
MP ($1333.05)
CO ($1141)
Button ($2622.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
2 folds, Button raises to $30, Hero raises to $120, 1 fold, Button calls $90

Flop: ($250) 3, Q, K (2 players)
Hero bets $180, Button calls $180

Turn: ($610) A (2 players)
Hero bets $400, Button raises to $2322.50 (All-In)

[zook]

That guy's crazy, esp deep. I would call.

[pocketfours]

I'd fold but I guess it's pretty close and depends a lot on how loosely he like to call 3bets IP (this deep I bet he's very loose). He will certainly have decent equity when called if he is behind. If you are behind then you're in bad shape...

[griffey24]

That guy's crazy, esp deep. I would call.

Doesn't he expect this board to hit our range ridiculously hard. Given this, doesn't he expect most of our value hands to be b/c this turn?

I think this entirely depends on what level we think he's on? The "we're gonna call with our two pairs/sets' level", or the "we're rarely 3betting JT, so we rarely have the nuts so we can't call this deep" level.... hmmm

[zook]

That guy's crazy, esp deep. I would call.

Doesn't he expect this board to hit our range ridiculously hard. Given this, doesn't he expect most of our value hands to be b/c this turn?

First, we're double-barreling close to 100% of our range here, including all of our air, so while I agree this board hits our range hard, he knows that AQo isn't the bottom of our range. Second, we have to seriously contemplate folding AQo here, and so we also would have to contemplate folding AKo, which leaves very few hand combinations we would call with.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's really close. He's good enough not to bluff when he's repping one hand to try to get very strong hands to fold. But he's also crazy enough to do that, esp with the FE that comes from being this deep.

[IowaSkinsFan]

This is pretty tough, i prob fold but idk, if hes bluffing here i dont think its good.

[Ravageur]

I feel like I call here a lot of the time though in the heat of the moment I would be disgusted by the shove and have to time down and make a lightning quick decision (with the possibility of 'accidently' timing out lol).

I mean...we're ONLY worried about j10 here right (AA/KK/QQ/AK 4-bets and 333 raises the flop most of the time? Too bad there's no combo draws that he can now have that he wouldn't have raised the flop with...and we have the A of clubs. Meh this is a very tough spot. Would he shove like A3 of hearts here for value or anything worse? That would seem bad.

I guess it comes down to him thinking that you basically need a set/j10 here to call (especially if he thinks you're scared money) and there's a lot of money there for the taking so I think you gotta pick this one off.

[pocketfours]

I feel like I call here a lot of the time though in the heat of the moment I would be disgusted by the shove and have to time down and make a lightning quick decision (with the possibility of 'accidently' timing out lol).

I mean...we're ONLY worried about j10 here right (AA/KK/QQ/AK 4-bets and 333 raises the flop most of the time? Too bad there's no combo draws that he can now have that he wouldn't have raised the flop with...and we have the A of clubs. Meh this is a very tough spot. Would he shove like A3 of hearts here for value or anything worse? That would seem bad.

I guess it comes down to him thinking that you basically need a set/j10 here to call (especially if he thinks you're scared money) and there's a lot of money there for the taking so I think you gotta pick this one off.

I don't think AK will 4bet this deep IP almost ever. I certainly wouldn't. Especially against someone who might be viewed as scared money it would be a pretty huge mistake. Also QQ would often play like this and AA/KK sometimes.

I think 33/JT/QQ/AK are all very likely hands that we should expect to see the vast majority of the time. Something like KcJc/KcTc might play like this also.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I fold, i don't think it's close either. This is never a bluff even from him.

[sauce123]

pretty hard to find a fold here i think when hes repping exactly JT/QQQ maybe, so without having played with him id probably call, but impossible to know really

[IowaSkinsFan]

pretty hard to find a fold here i think when hes repping exactly JT/QQQ maybe, so without having played with him id probably call, but impossible to know really

You don't think AA, AK, or KK are possible either? It seems like he's repping a good 5 hands, maybe not full weight on any of them but we have to put these in his range, right?