This seemed like my toughest hand from 3k hands

[minSim]

I've moved down a level to really work on my game, as I have plenty of time to play for a week.

After 3k hands this one is about the only one I really had no clue.
Villain was 33/0/inf over 12 hands, basically unknown, although not raising a single hand could mean a little bit.
I guess call, raise and fold are all viable options depending on just a little more hands in or out of his range (i.e. AA/KK). Also if someone says call, please provide a river plan.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer Game#21377518873

SB ($3.85)
BB ($36.40)
UTG ($57.50)
UTG+1 ($22.70)
CO ($29.40)
Hero ($25.25)

Dealt to Hero 7J
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.85, call, call,

FLOP ($2.55) 783
check, BB bets $1, Hero calls $1, SB folds,

TURN ($4.55) 783J
BB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $5, BB raises to $11, Hero ?

[Fnord]

Just go all-in.

Can't put him on a set and there are worse two pair hands in his range. Looks a lot like a straight, but that depends a lot on game texture.

[griffey24]

Given that he just intentionally small bet/induced your raise and now is popping over it, I would be very surprised if this wasn't 9T a huge amount of the time.

I'd just dump it, but I like how its played up till his 3-bet.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Shove

[minSim]

Could you elaborate a bit on why you'd shove ISF?

Fnord; there are as much worse as better 2 pairs in his range, and sets, and T9, and maybe or maybe not something else.

I folded the hand, but I don't want to advocate it, just trying to see the whole picture. It really doesn't seem like villain is trying to get me to fold. On the other hand, I have to admit I never thought of overpairs at the time and they make a big difference.

This seems like the tightest range;

Board: 7h 8h 3c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.182% 18.18% 00.00% 112 0.00 { Jd7s }
Hand 1: 81.818% 81.82% 00.00% 504 0.00 { 88-77, 33, J8s-J7s, T9s, 87s }

This is with some combo draws in it;

Board: 7h 8h 3c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.858% 24.86% 00.00% 175 0.00 { Jd7s }
Hand 1: 75.142% 75.14% 00.00% 529 0.00 { 88-77, 33, J8s-J7s, T9s, 87s, 6h5h, 5h4h }}

This is one is with AA in it (equal to KK+ 50% of the time, or about equal to JJ+ 50% of the time as JJ made a set)

Board: 7h 8h 3c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.393% 40.39% 00.00% 391 0.00 { Jd7s }
Hand 1: 59.607% 59.61% 00.00% 577 0.00 { AA, 88-77, 33, J8s-J7s, T9s, 87s, 6h5h, 5h4h }

[skadaddle]

I think he shows up with a straight almost always here, he has played it in the typical fish style of min bet then min raise, whenever I look up a fish in a spot like this they always have the nuts.