ensign_lee's 10/4 winning picks (YTD: 20-15, +29.90 units)

[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee


Bets not tracked at SageStats can be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...DlRSHfbA&hl=en

YTD: 20-15
Units Won: +29.90

Last week: 2-3
Units Won: -2.135

~~~
Ended up on the shorter side of the coin a few times last week. But lal in all, I think I'd make the same bets again. The Texans were in it right until the end last week, and fell *just short*. But hey, them's the ropes.

I usually end up doing poorly in games where the spread comes into play because I almost never take points instead of taking dogs straight up, and almost never take the favorite straight up and instead lay the points. In the last 4 dog moneyline bets I made, 3 of them covered the spread, but didn't get the win. It happens; hopefully, just not so much in the future.

But anyway, enough of last week's recap. I'm posting this thread early this time, because I believe this line will move, and not in my favor.

~~~
Indianapolis Colts -3 (-110)
4.5 units at BetTrojan

Last week's victory was ridiculously deflating, and as a Texans fan, that just sucks. Because our team usually ends up coming in hungover the next. We had tons of opportunities to win the game, notably 4th and 8 when we let Garrard run in for the conversion.

They never do well coming off of an emotional loss. You saw it last year after we rallied back from 25 behind to start the 4th quarter against the Titans, only to fall short at the last second. The next week, at San Diego, final score: 35-10, and the game wasn't as close as that score makes it seem, either. The year before that? Vince Young runs it in against us in overtime...blech, in a closer fought divisional rivalry game. Next week's game against New England? 40-7.

Whether it be because of lack of focus during the week, or players remembering what happened, it just never turns out all that well for my Texans.

I am a little worried that the line came out at -3 and that the IND/HOU game is the first on the board. I expected the line to come out closer to IND -6, as they've owned us so badly in the past, both SU and ATS, and because the public perception of the Texans is low while the Colts is high. But that doesn't change the fact that I don't see how the Texans can pull this one out.

Our defense, already not that good as it was, lost our starting SS this week. Our original backup we ended up cutting; we trie dout 8 new DBs this week, presumably to try to fill that spot and get someone up to speed to matchup against the Colts this week. Seriuosly? We're having tryingouts the week of the game? That's messed up.

And though Schaub looked tons better, I'm not completely convinced that we can win a shootout with the Colts, even if their defense isn't doing as well. Peyton, on the other hand, even though he's been struggling this year, has always wtfpwned my Texans. If you go to NFL.com's preview of the game, you'll even see them mocking us there "Manning has 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in his past four games against the Texans." Blah. It sucks to be a Texans fan.

Indianapolis is also coming off a bye, and I think that Tony Dungy will have used his bye week to effectively heal his players, as well as gameplan around his team's deficiencies. Even if Saturday and Clark aren't back in the lineup (and I'm thinking they will), our defensive line couldn't even get proper pressure against the Jags porous line last week. Damn.

Already 80% of the bets are coming in on Indianapolis and even Pinnacle is bowing to that volume, altering its odds on IND -3. I doubt this line will last, so I'm posting it now so that people can actually get it.

I'll have the rest of my bets up later in the week.

[ensign_lee]

It's Thursday and the Colts/Texans game is the most bet on game of the week, with 4 bets on Indy for every 1 on Houston.

I think I understand why the books put the line at -3 instead of something more like -6.5 which would have drawn even action.

They're thinking that the public is still overvaluing Indianapolis. If you look at their games so far, they lost against a better than expected Chicago Bears team, had to come back from 15 points down in the 4th to win against a 1-3 Vikings team, and then lost in the final seconds to a Jaguars team that last week only beat Houston by a field goal in overtime.

That, and houston was 6-2 at home last year, so I suppose that the books think that the Texans are a young enough team to make our play at home vs. on the road completely different. That, and the fact that the Texans were in the game last week and really dominated most of the stats; in the Tennessee game, the score really wasn't indicative of the game as we could have pulled within 5 with a minute left, but instead we threw a pick 6.

That, and the fact that they think that the Texans will play especially better, since this is their home opener (finally, in week 5)

And to a certain extent, I agree. But despite all that (and it is quite a bit, really), I still think the play is against my Texans. The star of our defense, DeMeco Ryans, is questionable; and even if he might play, he'll be slower to the ball, and won't be able to tackle as well. Our starting FS and one of the defensive captains, is also questionable for the game. Our starting SS is on IR and *out for the season* and we don't really have a capable backup behind him.

The main way that I see the Texans winning is if we can keep the clock moving and score on the ground. Unfortunately, that's not exactly a strong suit for our team.

After taking that all into effect, the Colts at -3 is still a play there. You can still get it at BetJM and Cris at -110 in case you're still trying.

~~~
San Diego -6 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

Yeah, another public play. But I couldn't resist this line. While most other people are holding -6 at heavy juice or even at -6.5 (for instance, Pinnacle), BetTrojan is holding -6 at normal juice. I gotta do it.

I will probably buy back later at +6 to scalp or at +6.5 to offset and try to shoot for the middle later. We'll see what happens. I just wanted to post this now while it was still available so that people don't bitch at me for posting unavailable lines later.

[bigspenda73]

Why not raise your unit if you're never going to bet 1 yo?

Also, have fun at the game

[flomo]

E_Lee
any more free $1,000 out there

and good luck

[zook]

E_Lee
any more free $1,000 out there

oh man, when the Steelers covered that spread that was one of the best moments of my gambling life

gonna go find and bump that thread...

[flomo]

E_Lee
any more free $1,000 out there

oh man, when the Steelers covered that spread that was one of the best moments of my gambling life

gonna go find and bump that thread...

it was beautiful
and i didn't need joey porter

[ensign_lee]

Why not raise your unit if you're never going to bet 1 yo?

Also, have fun at the game

lol, I guess nobody reads my replies.

After week 2, I'd increased my bankroll to 1.5x the size. So I resized my unit.

Problem is, it gets confusing when for weeks 1-2, my unit is x, and for weeks 3+, my unit is 1.5x.

So to keep recordkeeping simple, I just left my original unit size intact, and just started using "1.5 units" and "3 units" instead of "1 new unit" or "2 new units". Make sense?

Also, return my phone call dammit.

[ensign_lee]

flomo, zook: Hell yeah it was. I still can't believe that George (I think it was George? Maybe it was Jyms?) had like a 2k naked position on it beacuse he didn't do the bet correctly.

1 outed FTW! hahahaaaaaaaa

[Trikflow77]

yeah that free 1k was sooooo sweet. I also think the colts -3 is a sweet play, the bye week should help manning get back on track and maybe help the colts sort their defense out. Plus the texans are coming off a really tough loss, im still sick they lost that game.

[gabe]

colts -3, skins+5.5, bucs+3

yee?

[ensign_lee]

Why don't you have the skins +6?

[gabe]

i thought the line was gonna move the opposite way once people found out westbrook wasnt playing

[ensign_lee]

Indianapolis Colts -3 (-110)
4.5 units at BetTrojan

Allrighty. This line hasn't budged but for some juice, and it's really worrying me. I won't have time to time right up until kickoff, because I'm going to be at the game.

Canceling this bet by taking an offsetting position of HOU +3 (+112.7) at matchbook.

[ensign_lee]

So...what am I going to be betting come week 5, eh? Here we go:

3 Team Teaser (+180):
Baltimore +8.5
New York (Giants) -1
open
3 units at thegreek

In an expected low scoring game like Baltimore/Tennessee game, I think that taking the home team and getting 8.5 points with them is the perfect type of situation for teasers. I actually like Baltimore to win straight up, but am afraid of the volatility of having a rookie QB and an injured star RB and so am not taking Tennessee straight up as a straight bet.

Seattle is still pretty banged up on offense, and will be running into the former super-bowl champs. Plus, they'll be traveling across time zones, and that's an angle that I like to play (see week 1 picks for reasoning). After the close call that they had before the bye week, I think that Coughlin will have his troops prepared for this game moreso than normal. If the line happens to drop to -6.5, I'll be taking the Giants straight up as well.

As for the open spot, I'm leaving it open pending information on the Jags/Pitt game. The line moved from 4 to 5.5 last night, and usually that means impending injury news. I'm not going to bet on a Pittsburgh team without a starting QB and both starting RBs, even if I could get 11.5 points with a teaser in an expected low scoring game. Should Roethlesberger not play or not look healthy enough to perform, I'll be filling the last spot with MIN +9. If he looks good to go, then PIT +11.5 looks attractive.

Why Minnesota? This is a team that has come *oh so close* so many times. The public is down on them because they weren't able to pull things out, but that doesn't take away from the team talent that they have. Yes, their weaknesses play into the Saints strengths - Saints can pass: Vikings have difficulty stopping the pass while fairly good against the run. But hopefully that one matchup won't determine the game. Plus, I'm using fishhead's system reasoning. Hopefully it works. I'll have a play on the MIN game closer to gametime on Monday.

Well, enough reasoning for that teaser; onward we go:

Arizona -1.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

Following a handicapper that I respect on this play. That, and the injury list for Buffalo. Two starting DT's, a starting CB, a starting kick returner. That's going to hurt the bills more than people realize. Meanwhile, Arizona is back at home, and last week proved they still had heart in trying to come back from a 31-0 deficit at half (and didn't fall short by all that much). This team is believing in itself. I'll back 'em here, especially when a well known Bills fan says that he doesn't think his team will win.

Indianapolis Colts Team Total OVER 13 (1st Half) (-115)
3 units at theGreek

Yeah, so I hopped of the Indy train as far as the spread went. That line just seems way too odd there, and there is solid reasoning to back the Texans. That being said, the Texans defense is still going to be starting a limping MLB (who was arguably the best or second best player on the team, and certainly the defense), a new SS, an injured FS, and corners that right now don't seem to be able to cover anyone. Meanwhile, the Colts will be bringing back some starters on their offensive line which should massively help Manning's protection. 2 TDs in the span of the first two quarters doesn't seem like a stretch at all to me, especially since Manning and Co. on offense may have an entire scripted series to start the game.

Parlay: Dallas -16, OVER 44.5 (+281)
2 units at BetTrojan

Parlay: Cincinnati +16, UNDER 44.5 (+281)
2 units at BetTrojan

I'm taking a straddle on the Dallas game. Taking the favorite and over, and then the dog and under. When it comes down to it, it's like a 4 unit play on the game at -110 (do the math - it's 4 units to win 3.62 units). The spread is about 35% of the total. I think these things are +EV in the long run.

I'll probably do another one with the first half tomorrow as well. I'm just trying to see if my book will get the spread off of 10 for the first half and move it to 9.5 instead. If not, no big deal, but my straddle will be a little lopsided with -115 on one side and +105 on the other.

For record keeping purposes, I'll keep these two plays as two seperate plays - just know that they are mutually exclusive and I'm shooting to win one of them.

[ensign_lee]

San Diego -6 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

Well, with the bad weather there, and the fact that really, this line has moved from -7 down to -6.5, and even -6 despite more money flowing in on the Patriots. Plus, this goes against the angle of betting against west coast teams traveling to the east coast.

Going to eat the juice, and *CANCEL THIS POSITION* by taking Miami +6 (-105) for a 10 cent loss.

[ensign_lee]

New York Giants -6.5 (-105)
1.5 units at BetTrojan

See above reasoning for why exactly I like the line of -6.5. Gotta go soon

[flomo]

good luck today!

[ensign_lee]

Thanks flomo,

Thanks Junkman,

One more for the day, and then off to the Texans game:

Straddle

Parlay: Dallas, -10, OVER 23 (1st Half)
3 units at BetTrojan

Parlay: Cincinnati +10, UNDER 23 (1st Half)
3 units at BetTrojan

Same reasoning as the other straddle.

[Lukie]

Thanks for doing this lee.. I watch a ton of football but I'm learning a lot about the sportsbetting angle of it from reading your posts.

I don't really like your ARI pick.. just too many awfully blown assignments by their defensive secondary, warner is showing his age, can't hold onto the ball, boldin out, etc.

[Trikflow77]

wow, so gross for you. You cover, but your team melted down, that was almost an auto victory if they just held onto the ball.

[UG]

Thanks for doing this lee.. I watch a ton of football but I'm learning a lot about the sportsbetting angle of it from reading your posts.

this.

I still can't get myself to start sports-betting a lot because it's so random sometimes. a "sure thing" is not always a sure thing. Kansas City beat Denver pretty good last week, I never would have thought that would be possible, I would have bet the house the Chiefs would have gotten the shit beat out of them...

Crazy day so far: Falcons win in Green Bay, Dolphins beat San Diego, Texans meltdown, Redskins come back from 14-0 to win convincingly at Philly

I guess that's why they call it gambling, lol

[Trikflow77]

Thanks for doing this lee.. I watch a ton of football but I'm learning a lot about the sportsbetting angle of it from reading your posts.

this.

I still can't get myself to start sports-betting a lot because it's so random sometimes. a "sure thing" is not always a sure thing. Kansas City beat Denver pretty good last week, I never would have thought that would be possible, I would have bet the house the Chiefs would have gotten the shit beat out of them...

Crazy day so far: Falcons win in Green Bay, Dolphins beat San Diego, Texans meltdown, Redskins come back from 14-0 to win convincingly at Philly

I guess that's why they call it gambling, lol

dont do it george or you will end up losing 5k to your drunken mexican neighbor that bets underdogs straight up.

[Lukie]

Thanks for doing this lee.. I watch a ton of football but I'm learning a lot about the sportsbetting angle of it from reading your posts.

this.

I still can't get myself to start sports-betting a lot because it's so random sometimes. a "sure thing" is not always a sure thing. Kansas City beat Denver pretty good last week, I never would have thought that would be possible, I would have bet the house the Chiefs would have gotten the shit beat out of them...

Crazy day so far: Falcons win in Green Bay, Dolphins beat San Diego, Texans meltdown, Redskins come back from 14-0 to win convincingly at Philly

I guess that's why they call it gambling, lol

dont do it george or you will end up losing 5k to your drunken mexican neighbor that bets underdogs straight up.

haha, wow, thank you for reminding me about this.

I smell a bump...

[ensign_lee]

I am now on life tilt.

OMFG THAT GAME SUCKED SOOOOOOOOO MUCH.

F(# ^*&)E^IHDG&*O^#*Y O*&SYHIYT#(#*^ (&(*DUK D()^#IUY D*O&E^ JKHG *&^E YIU^# (YUKLY



As it stands, I'm down about 3.5 units, with my teaser pending a selection for its last pick. But you know what? I pretty much don't care!!!

(#^ *&#^ *(^*&(

Way to go fucking Sage RosenFAILS. (^ *(&@65 792 6252

[ensign_lee]

Been somewhat of a rough day, with my straddle failing, and then Vinateiri missing a 40 yard field goal that would have tied my Colts TT bet.

And don't even get me started on the bullshitism of the COlts winning that game, with me being a Texans fan and all.

But anyway,

closing out the three team teaser from before with

Pittsburgh +11.5

If this wins, I'll come out ahead...barely. If not, well, dammit.

[ensign_lee]

lol. Pick 6 to start the game. Awesome...

[ensign_lee]

Teaser was +180

~~~
Minnesota M/L +145.04
5 units at matchbook

This is based on the system play provided by Fishhead (props, Fishhead), along with the fact that the line hasn't moved despite 70% of the public being on NO.

That, and then a few cappers that I respect are on it as well.

Here's to somewhat blind faith and hoping that Jason David gets torched by Minnesota.

[ensign_lee]

New Orleans Saints Moneyline (+176.4)
5 units at matchbook

I have no confidence at all that Minnesota will be able to hang on tonight. The only reason they're in this game at all is because of some GIGANTIC plays on special teams and defense.

Getting out of this bet at +175 or so, and I'll take the profit. <3 Profit

[zook]

Wow, I'm pretty surprised you think a team ahead 10 pts. at halftime wins less than 50% of the time. But I'm not watching the game.

[ensign_lee]

The game should have been more like 17-0 at half. But eh, it's all good.

And then I made out pretty well in live-in game betting, except for when I left an offer hanging out there to go and watch the game (stupid me. Cost me like 1k in EV), but all in all a good night.

Woot.