TPTK vs turn aggression on flush draw card

[jtx51]

So I had this hand today against a 44/2/2.2 over 41 hands.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed)

saw flop | saw showdown

SB ($2.49)
BB ($1.76)
UTG ($3)
Hero (UTG+1) ($2.91)
MP1 ($5.20)
MP2 ($1.39)
CO ($2.04)
Button ($5.18)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Qd, Ad
UTG (poster) checks, Hero raises $0.10, 5 folds, BB calls $0.08, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.23) Qc, 8d, 2c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.12, BB calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.47) 6c (2 players)
BB bets $0.18, Hero ???

Is there a good enough chance he has the flush here to warrant a fold?

Cheers

why did you give him odds to draw? pot the flop

[Zel]

Yeah! The hand should have been dead on the flop, but if he was on a draw, he'd probably call you if he didn't know poker theory... Then you might know for sure he was on the draw, when the 6c hits.

As for the turn, its really risky, but I have to call. You put yourself in a difficult position, and you need to see his hand to review your mistakes. If this is a hand you did not see, you wouldn't know how to deal with it in the future, and secondly you're holding top pair, and he could be on a runner draw. Call the turn. A Club comes out on the river. Call the river. You NEED to see what he has, so you can play this hand better next time.

lolno
if a club comes on the river I'm c/fing, especially if the villain decides to shove the river with the nut flush draw hoping I have a high club

[JinxT4]

Yeah! The hand should have been dead on the flop, but if he was on a draw, he'd probably call you if he didn't know poker theory... Then you might know for sure he was on the draw, when the 6c hits.

As for the turn, its really risky, but I have to call. You put yourself in a difficult position, and you need to see his hand to review your mistakes. If this is a hand you did not see, you wouldn't know how to deal with it in the future, and secondly you're holding top pair, and he could be on a runner draw. Call the turn. A Club comes out on the river. Call the river. You NEED to see what he has, so you can play this hand better next time.

Lol, I'd have to disagree with pretty much everything in this post.

Iopq - you managed to post twice & didn't even answer his question.

Jtx51 - folding is probably acceptable. I'd probably call & see what he does on the river b/c he bet so weak.

[Zel]

"Jtx51 - folding is probably acceptable. I'd probably call & see what he does on the river b/c he bet so weak."

Hehe that sounds a lot like what I pretty much said! I'd like to know why you disagree with what I said. I may have overlooked a lot of things, so please explain :]

Maybe I was overboard saying call the river lol. If he shoves all in.. yeah the fold is clear. I just wanted to make a point to find out. I kinda want to learn hehe. That's all there is to my reasoning.

[killerkebab]

"Jtx51 - folding is probably acceptable. I'd probably call & see what he does on the river b/c he bet so weak."

Hehe that sounds a lot like what I pretty much said! I'd like to know why you disagree with what I said. I may have overlooked a lot of things, so please explain :]

Maybe I was overboard saying call the river lol. If he shoves all in.. yeah the fold is clear. I just wanted to make a point to find out. I kinda want to learn hehe. That's all there is to my reasoning.

He's saying you don't HAVE to see what he had, and that sort of thinking tends to lead you to lose a lot of money, especially if villain figures out you'll look him up every time he bets

Iopq - you managed to post twice & didn't even answer his question.

Because flop play is more important here, you can get a LOT of value just potting donks with draws. Not only that, it shows lack of understanding of pot odds and implied odds.

Anyway, whatever amount you bet you must make sure he's not getting the implied odds to chase his draws. You have a limit of how much money you want to put in after the draw comes in. He had about a 1/6 chance of making his draw on the turn. After you call his small bet, he's breaking even. That's why you bet more on the flop.

[badgers]

ahhhhhh this thread is silly.

REALLY SIMPLE ADVICE

Nice preflop, good raise size considering the limper.

Bet harder on the flop, 3/4 pot is a nice bet size for all of your cbets unless it's a 3bet pot in which case you can bet less.

Folding on the turn is really weak, you are getting ~3.5:1 and you have position, perhaps if he bets hard on the river you can fold but you shouldn't fold now, the price is too good.

[chuckc3401]

At this level you get calling stations and chasers galore. With TPTK on a drawy board I would bet pop on the flop at least. You want people to make the biggest mistake possible and so many donks here will call down with draws you have to bet bigger. A donk knows his 9 high flush draw will win because he's seen it on TV. When he donk bets on the turn I think a fold is better. Donks will tell you what they have and not play very tricky often. Unless you have a read that he bluffs often I would fold.

[jtx51]

Thanks everyone. The funny thing is that I usually do at least 2/3 pot if not 3/4 on cbets, but I had been taking down a lot of pots lately without much value, and I wanted to try a bit smaller cbet to see if I could get any more out of it. That was a mistake, obviously.

Anyway, I re-read the pot odds article since I evidently had not fully grasped it, and I understanding the reasoning for a larger bet here. I'll try to not make this mistake again.

Follow-up question: What kind of range can we put him on at the flop? I'm not good at assigning ranges yet. His vpip is huge, 44%, but his PF raise is only 2%, and he'd probably reraise the hands that have TP queens dominated, right? So I'd say we can rule out AA, KK. Also, given his lack of aggression on the flop, can we rule out a set or two pair? If he hit either, wouldn't we normally see a bet or a check/raise? That leaves us with TPTK against at best a weaker queen or a gutshot/flush draw. Is my thinking correct here?

Assuming it is, if I put in a good cbet here instead of my crappy one, and he calls then bets the turn as played with a weenie bet, I call and evaluate on the river? If he calls and checks the turn, do I fire again? I'm thinking I would, with a fold to a large check/raise that would most likely mean he hit his flush.

I'm trying to learn better postflop play, so please pardon any obvious noobishness Or rather, please tell me that it's both obvious and noobish so I can fix it.

Thanks and cheers

When you get called on that flop, he usually has a flush draw. He may have a set. Two pair is less likely, but possible if he plays Q8. People have two pair more often on flops like JTx than Q8x.

I'm paying him off one small bet because small bets usually mean either really weak hands or really strong hands. Sometimes people will throw out a small bet in hopes you don't have anything and you'll go away. If he pots the turn I'd just fold.