River decision, to induce or not to induce?

Read on villain: aggro monkey, plays back at me a lot, even though his stats don't show it

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($4.20)
MP2 ($9.20)
MP3 ($11.55)
CO ($6)
Button ($12.75)
Hero (SB) ($10)
BB ($4)
UTG ($13.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K
5 folds, Button calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Button calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.90) 6, 2, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, Button calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.90) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, Button raises to $4.40, Hero calls $3.30

River: ($10.70) Q (2 players)
Hero ?

Total pot: $10.70 | Rake: $1.05

[yourfather]

Bet more on flop
Also, I could be wrong but I don't like b/c too much on turn. If you think he plays back alot I would b/shove and against super nits maybe b/f.

I prob just shove river.

[wellrounded08]

This is a response/Question.

Why don't we just c/c this river? Imean. He's shove calling range is alot more narrow than his Bet/Shove range.
Call-a-shove Range:
Ad
Boat
Maybe Jd- MAYBE.
Maybe a Q.MAYBE.
The fact is, w/o a Strong Diamond or better, he's prob. not going to CALL a 4 to a flush board Even if he thinks you might be bluffing. Because he either has you beat, or has Jd-.

Bet/Shove Range:
Any Diamond. Maybe.
Boat
Qx Maybe.
the straight.Maybe.(since he plays at you so much, 34s could be in his range.)
Various other bluffs. Maybe.

Theres alot more hands he's betting with than he's calling with IMO.

Anyway, I c/c this river.(ohh, And I pot the flop, but thats just me, a fish.)

[yourfather]

As I said, I could be off but:

If we decide to c/c I think he might check behind his non nut flushes. Looking back on the hand this looks alot like a smaller flush, jxD 78D or something like that. But I also think he will def. call a shove getting 3:1 with these hands. It's also 10nl and I expect a Q to call here a fair amount cuz trips r good. I don't think he calls flop and raises the turn too often without a made flush or 55 (which is a small part of his range) and not the nut flush cuz they usually slowplay that. So that's why I shove river.

But being that he's aggressive, wouldn't he bet a way wider range than call?

[Fnord]

I would go all-in, but I think it's close.

[Chopper]

look at your odds if HE shoves. youre basically committed. if i'm you, i shove and put the onus on him since i cant see myself folding this against an aggro at 10NL. your decision was on the turn.

that said, i didnt see the four flush until just now. i dont like four card boards at any time. you can shove, c/c, c/f, or block bet the river making it look like you are begging for a call. i dont know which of those is best. i think it has much more to do with the villain and your image of him.

look at your odds if HE shoves. youre basically committed. if i'm you, i shove and put the onus on him since i cant see myself folding this against an aggro at 10NL. your decision was on the turn.

that said, i didnt see the four flush until just now. i dont like four card boards at any time. you can shove, c/c, c/f, or block bet the river making it look like you are begging for a call. i dont know which of those is best. i think it has much more to do with the villain and your image of him.

Dude, I have the best hand here 99/100 times I already said, this guy is an aggro monkey just because he raised the turn doesn't mean he even has one card to the flush
I'm just trying to get more money out of him, will I do that by betting or checking?

[Fnord]

The Q pairing will get him to call with trips, hence I'm more inclined to make a bluffy shove.

[will641]

i would bet more on the flop and turn. as played im jamming his turn raise.

[CBAT]

Bet more on the flop

And its a reraise or a fold on the turn. Depends on if you think he hit that flush.

Dude, I have the best hand here 99/100 times I already said, this guy is an aggro monkey just because he raised the turn doesn't mean he even has one card to the flush
I'm just trying to get more money out of him, will I do that by betting or checking?

You definitely don't have the best hand 99/100 times. He could easily be in there with some time of suited connectors.

Bet more on the flop

And its a reraise or a fold on the turn. Depends on if you think he hit that flush.

Dude, I have the best hand here 99/100 times I already said, this guy is an aggro monkey just because he raised the turn doesn't mean he even has one card to the flush
I'm just trying to get more money out of him, will I do that by betting or checking?

You definitely don't have the best hand 99/100 times. He could easily be in there with some time of suited connectors.

I have suited connectors crushed

[Stacks]

Bet more on the flop

And its a reraise or a fold on the turn. Depends on if you think he hit that flush.

Dude, I have the best hand here 99/100 times I already said, this guy is an aggro monkey just because he raised the turn doesn't mean he even has one card to the flush
I'm just trying to get more money out of him, will I do that by betting or checking?

You definitely don't have the best hand 99/100 times. He could easily be in there with some time of suited connectors.

I have suited connectors crushed

What about 3d4d?? Think of that one??

And yeah I agree with everyone that says it's a b/3b on the turn. Mainly for this very situation. Here you have a shitty situation because your hand is good enough that you want/need to get value; however, he likely isn't calling much, and is checking behind with alot of hands now. That's why you should get it in on the turn, so if something like this happens he can't get away from his hand.

holy crap I missed the straight flush... this is not the first time! I really should watch out for them... srsly

[yourfather]

Results? Are you saying he actually had sf?

[SiCK_Boy]

The only things to consider are:
- Your estimation of your win percentage (you said 99 % of the time... would you keep that same estimation wether you check and he bets enough to put you all in?), which should be fairly high (but not as high as you estimated, I think) since a few hands can beat you (Ad+X, Q+6, Q+5, Q+2, 3d+4d, 66, 55, 22)
- The probability he'll fold if you bet all your money
- The probability he'll bet enough to put you all in if you check

I wouldn't consider any amounts less than your stack, since it's not even half of the pot (you have 4,70 $ left for a 10,70 $ pot).

Just estimate those numbers, and calculate your EV. That's the best way to get the answer to your original question.

If you're convinced you have a 99 % win rate, you're better off betting, even more so if you estimate he's the kind of player that'll bet back at you more often. Even with a lower win chance, you're probably better off this way, because of the gain you do when he folds (the extra 4,70 $ you can gain if he calls isn't enough compared to the 10,70 $ already in the pot... that's the money you're after, really).
Another reason to bet instead of checking is that, if he checks after you, you still stand with your 99 % (or slightly less, but still very strong) chances of winning the pot. But if he bets for your remaining money, he's probably announcing a stronger hand, giving him a much higher win percentage (probably as high as 40 %), forcing you to fold more hands which you probably don't wanna do at that point.

So, by being the agressor, you don't have to worry about his hand more than necessary. And you'll give him 4,7:15,4, or 1:3,28 pot odds, so he needs to beat you more than 23 % of the time to make it worth his money.

99% of the time is a gross over-estimate
in reality any estimate has a top ceiling of 95% and that's when I say I'm 100% sure (other than when I have the stone cold nuts)

I have the third nuts against a button limper
if he had a suited ace, wouldn't he raise to steal the blinds? Maybe he'd limp the lower end of the range, but it would take a nit to limp ATs+

so he's only limping A2s-A9s
and he might actually dump or raise an offsuit ace, not a lot of people limp those

so that's how I can argument my 90% win rate in this spot
if he has a flush, he has a small one
Q6/Q5/Q2 type of hands I'd say only 5% chance
sets are a distinct possibility since he might be one of those people who limp pairs on the button for set value + especially since he called my raise
I can discount 5s slightly more because he might think that the queen hit me

so let's pokerstove this, I'll put in the most likely hands and see how often he has this

66,22,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad4d,Ad3d,4d3d
is 1.4%
I'm going to add 5% for all the other crap that I discounted but it can still show up unexpectedly + because we need to weigh the 1.4% figure since those hands are more likely than air
so 6.4% is probably the chance that I'm beat

if he pushes into me needless to say I call a push 100% of the time since I'm getting 3-to-1, so even if his range is weighted heavily towards the hands that have me beat, it happens so rarely I'm getting value from Qx and more importantly small flushes that got counterfeitted

SiCK_Boy, your argument is that I gain when he folds
this is not true, he will not fold a full house or ace high flush on this board, and certainly not a straight flush
and those are the ONLY hands that beat me, he will fold them 0% of the time

so if he's folding, he's folding a worse hand and that's a bad result
if he's checking behind he's also checking behind a worse hand, which is as bad as us going all in and him folding
so we have two good results only:
1. we go all in and he calls with worse
2. we check and he goes all in with worse

on this board, which is more likely?
we actually don't care how often he's ahead because we're paying him off

btw, I don't feel like giving results since they ruin the discussion but PM me if you really wanna know

[SiCK_Boy]

Why do you think he made that raise on the turn? Was he trying to push you out of the hand, or set up a large pot from which you wouldn't be able to go away?

If he had a small flush it was for value, but now I have him beat unless he limped Axs on the button
If he had air it was to push me off my hand

there are way more small flushes than Axs flushes possible so that's why I said I'm ahead very often