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 Originally Posted by Pig_Vomit
I suck at understanding hud stats so for the purpose of this i' m ignoring them. If someone could illustrate how my thought process should change based on these stats it would be greatly apreciated.
1) Hell yeah. Villian's check indicates he doesn't have an ace and we can probz push him off whatever garbage he's playing. insta fold to check/ raise though.
2) Hell noes. He may be drawing may be slow playing. not worth finding out.
3) Check fold. I don't think their is any value in calling here. I think his bet screams "I've been slow playing you sucka! Now I wants to get paid." I see him with trip 6 or 7 maybe even A probz two pair. I suppose he could have some sort of A but I would have thought he'd be less willing to slowplay it. What could he have that we beat? Not much i'd think. Busted flush that thought "fuck it" when you checked the river?
How'd i do?
36 means he is playing too many hands. and, i, by being tighter, have some inherent advantages against him...like kickers. 6 means, in terms of how many hands he limps, he raises fairly rarely. meaning, when he does, its likely a decent hand. (or just run 6% through pokerstove and find its about 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo...maybe a bit wider) and, the .1 is his aggression factor. a "1.0" means he bets/raises as often as he calls bets. so, a "0" means he has not bet as of yet. 100 hands is just an "ok" sample, and when referring to AF #'s it's not the whole story. but, what it tells me is...
- he plays loose pf
- when he raises, its pretty strong
- he RARELY, if ever bets post flop. which means, when he does, i should respect it. but, he is more likely to just call along with much worse stuff...like mid and bottom pair hands. if i am oop, he probably gives me a lot of free cards, so i can draw against him quite often.
so, when this guy "comes alive" on the river in hand one, he MAY have called down with a weak ace and decided to bet a strongish hand here like A8/other aces up hand...or it could be the 5 for the rivered straight. being that he doesnt apparently bluff (miniscule AF), he probably has a one-pair hand beat. and, we have to be right between half and one-third of time to call that river bet. i dont like it there.
however, when that second HH shows the A hit the river, there is no realistic straight possibility out there. two pair may have done something earlier, maybe not. the likelihood of him having an A drastically drops off, although he may not have raised it anyway. and, every pp has two pair now, too. there are so many hands we now beat that i feel we are ahead better than half the time, and this warrants a call.
so, i think flop and turn bets are good value here, at these stakes and against this villain. he will likely call with much worse and wont raise/semibluff. sure, he will call down with AX, but he will also call down with pp's, draws, midpair hands. and, he likely wont fold until the river, if at all.
PLUS we have position here. we bet the turn both for value AND for a free showdown. we dont want to bet all 3 streets with QQ here, imo. not into THIS villain. he may never tell us he has an A, especially if its weak. so, we can just check behind.
free card, and free showdown, plays arent used often enough in NL, imo. when in position and against calling stations, i think they are very valuable plays for both value and pot control.
a lot of people will argue that we should check the flop because villains range holds a lot of aces. i agree, but i also think that we miss value AND give him the opportunity to bet anything w/o us knowing where we stand. almost anyone will take a shot at a pot, even if with a minbet, when they see no one else wants it....at low stakes. we want to maintain a little initiative here, so we know we are beat when he raises us. and, we only take this approach because, as a station, he will call with a lot of worse hands, too.
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lets exhaust a hand...
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