Valuebetting dilemma

[Renton]

First, two hands....

$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG fakker11 ($1594.00)
UTG+1 GIVEmeSOME99 ($815.00)
CO traheho ($1062.00)
BTN Bttech86 ($1000.00)
SB Hero ($1095.00)
BB zero2lose ($2772.75)

Pre-flop: ($15, 6 players) Hero is SB
4 folds, Hero raises to $40, zero2lose calls $30

Flop: ($80, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, zero2lose calls $60

Turn: ($200, 2 players)
Hero bets $160, zero2lose calls $160

River: ($520, 2 players)
Hero checks, zero2lose bets $435, Hero folds




$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG MezmerizePLZ ($995.00)
UTG+1 Floyd1479 ($1012.00)
CO AndrewBoccia ($3129.70)
BTN nobbi745 ($408.00)
SB Hero ($1217.00)
BB jullle ($1803.80)

Pre-flop: ($15, 6 players) Hero is SB
MezmerizePLZ raises to $30, 2 folds, nobbi745 calls $30, Hero calls $25, 1 fold

Flop: ($100, 3 players)
Hero bets $70, MezmerizePLZ calls $70, 1 fold

Turn: ($240, 2 players)
Hero bets $160, MezmerizePLZ calls $160

River: ($560, 2 players)
Hero checks, MezmerizePLZ checks
Hero shows:

Hero wins $557 ( won +$297 )
MezmerizePLZ lost -$260.00
nobbi745 lost -$30.00



These hands have a few things in common:

1. I have a good made hand.
2. I'm out of position.
3. The board has coordinated itself in such a way where I have the worst hand a very significant percentage of the time.
4. My image is kinda weak. By weak I mean I don't really have a developed aggressive image, and they probably expect me to be playing pretty straightforward in these spots. No history of note.
5. Villain is a tough and solid reg.
6. They are spots where (i think) its a decision between betting or check/folding. I didn't see c/c as being an option in either.


I have shown these hands to several people who's opinions I much respect, and they have said that they are both easy bets. But I can't understand why.

I feel like I have a pretty solid understanding of poker, but one thing that I have never fully got was thin valuebetting. Especially thin value betting vs good players when there's not a ton of spewy history. It seems to me like when I bet AK in the first hand, its like I'm basically just praying that he makes a big mistake vs my range and calls with worse, and if he doesn't, then guess what I just made a spewy bet. I think this is a legitimate worry, because we are dealing with a player I believe is playing pretty damn well, so odds are, he figures to play pretty well to my bet.

But the flip side of the dilemma is that if I don't bet in these spots, they don't even get the opportunity to make a mistake to begin with.

Thoughts?

[EzDuzIt]

hand 1: zero2lose doesnt really 3bet very much i would expect him to have Ax a lot here and even AJ/AQ sometimes so i would just b/f.

hand 2: seems like a pretty easy value bet you have the best hand a lot and it seems like a spot where you could be 3 barreling.

[elipsesjeff]

If you 3 barrel bluff in these spots then you should def do it for value. In the 2nd hand he rarely turns a made hand into a bluff which is why c/c is bad, but he still might call you with worse.

Do you think that there is any $ amount of the river that will be of some value if u bet it in either hand? (Anywhere from minbet to shove)

[Alexos]

Both are very easy value bets i think.

[Fnord]

I think hand 1 is probably a river check/fold against your usual, weaker opposition. Against a guy who won't fold his BB exploitivly often to a SB open, will value bet worse aces for nearly the size of the pot and sees you as fresh meat I think you need to look him up.

[Renton]

Ok, this is kinda frustrating. It's not at all helpful when you simply look at these hands and say "thats an easy value bet." Can you explain precisely why its an easy value bet?

And no, "he calls with worse," and "you usually have the best hand" are hardly acceptable reasons.

For example, in the AK hand. Yes if you stoved my hand vs his range on the river there, I'd have the highest equity. Its probably like a 60-40 or a 65-35 in my favor. I don't see how this is at all relevant. What is important is how AK fares vs his calling range, and I honestly felt, regardless of how often i have the best hand getting to the river, that this figure was less than 50/50.


Ok I just stoved AK vs his range on the river.

Board: Ah 6c 9s 5d Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.935% 41.94% 00.00% 26 0.00 { 66, AJs-A2s, 96s, 87s, 65s, AQo-ATo, A8o-A6o }
Hand 1: 58.065% 58.06% 00.00% 36 0.00 { AdKd }



I gave him all the AJ combos, 1/4 of the A9 combos, All Axo combos A6 and up (this might have been erroneous, some ppl defend all Ax's, but i decided that statistically he should be 3-betting or folding a significant percentage of them), 3/4 of AQ combos since he 3-bet gets it in a sometimes, and one of the sets since i believe he slowplays sets a non zero frequency.

So I win 8 cents on the dollar if he calls with his entire range which obv he doesn't since he's not a massive station.

Is there something wrong with my range or with my expectations of him?


Also fwiw, since the second one is probably somewhat easier valuebet than the first one, pretend i have AJ in that hand. Would that be a bet?

[gabe]

hand 1 vil is a nit and he probably doesnt think you are crazy enough where you should value bet that river

[griffey24]

Hand 1 - b/f river. This is a blind vs blind battle, and its definitely possible he called any/all aces preflop and is calling down. How often is he calling your SB raise?

Hand 2 - definitely value bet. The board is soooo coordinated that its very likely that all two pairs on this board (9T,JT,J9,AJ,AT,A9) might not feel comfortable raising, but will possibly call down and call a river bet. Some one pair hands like AQ and QJ might even convince themselves to call, thinking you're either repping KQ or air by putting 3 streets in on this board.

I just see no reason not to b/f here really.

[zook]

If a decent number of regs in these games 3 barrel bluff in these spots then you should def do it for value.

fyp. You don't need history or even to balance your play that well in these spots. Just having taggy pre-flop stats often takes care of both of these, given how many opps are multi-tabling and not taking good notes.

[bair]

1: if i was the other guy i would valuebet AQ and AJ here, and expect to be ahead w/ AQ 90% of the time.
2: not diggin the bet sizing, but since you did it like this the river is probably a bet, but its kinda close

[Alexos]

ohh yeah i agree with bair - bet closer to pot on each street on 2), the board is too drawy for smaller bets and it also allows u to shove river with the nuts.

[Irisheyes]

Idk about the second hand which is a much more complicated spot but with regards to the first I think that the problem you're feeling may have a lot more to do with how you play the rest of your range rather that how much value ther is to be had from this specific hand. I think you feel that your range for betting the river is heavily skewed towards value bets and as such you don't feel like a competent player will call you down with worse. What you really need to do is mix more bluffs in there.

[Renton]

i do mix more bluffs in but the problem is that hasn't been established between us

[sauce123]

renton- first hand bet like 110 bucks if u want, but make sure he ends up calling and feeling owned and not like ur a passive fish he can shit all over

note: if he starts bluffjamming rivers thats just another game of rock paper scissors you can win. dont be handcuffed by traditional thinking, solid players turn out to play poorly when u test them and trick them and tilt them and exploit them.

hand 2 is a much clearer value bet because ur leading range is more nebulous to mezz and so he can either look you up REALLY light or fold, but think of board texture and how extremely rarely he has a hand better than yours: and then think of the tiny number of combo draws which get to the river and have you beat:: which leads me to my 2nd reason why you should make "thin" value bets. Theres a lot of spots in aggressive high stakes poker games where a certain line basically screams that your opponent has mid level nonsense to absolute dogshit: so you can reverse read hands and realized the 34th nuts is actually the 1st nuts given certain action barring some insane level your opponent is pulling which hes not. this is one of those spots, so bet!

[Irisheyes]

sawece123

[sauce123]

oh yea one more thing

you can also create a bad image by value betting. for instance lets say you (renton) start this AK hand wiht the image of a solid smaller stakes regular taking a shot at 5/10. you are immediately assuming that the only way to get the aggro winning image you are used to at your stakes is to run a bunch of bluffs which will come up eventually in med-good spots vs the regulars where they will call u with the top of their range. however, think of what zero2lose has to do if u decide to bet 110 on this river.

1. he has to fold an ace for this price (or any pair really)
2. he wont
3. he then has to assume two things: a) ur a nit or have a polarized range so you small bet AK cause u "wanted a call" in the old live player sense or b) he just got his soul owned
4) he won't want to believe b) so now next time you play a pot with him, you can actually value EVEN THINNER than AK in this spot::: because he now believes your range to be highly polarized cause thats the obvious metagame adjustment to this hand when classifying a new player who he perceives to be weak::: you just go a step further and vbet full pot next time and watch him snap mid pair cause he HAS TO KNOW what you have there or hes just fucked in the information war between you two.


This ties into another concept which im all about at the stakes I play which is building and maintaining momentum. I think we are all used to doing this to some extent HU, and really its what often determines the winner of a hu match. however, you need to do this as well against all the regulars at your level of 6max you play. whether its by taking notes or just intuitive feel you need to know how he classifies you as a player and then what your next counter adjustment is going to be in certain valuebet/bluffing spots liek this one (where we are full potting next time if he calls). once you are able to do things like this you will be able to consciously set an image which is contrary to your actual ranges, and more importantly be aware of that image. and after we know this, turn and river decisions get way way easier...

[Renton]

wow sick thanks

sauce whats the weakest hand you'd bet for value in hand two, JT?

[gabe]

nice posts mr 123

[nutsinho]

poker is ez as one two three

[sauce123]

yea, JT seems about right tho its probably like a neutral ev bet and ur value cutting urself a ton

[Sup3rM4N]

wow. Read and re-read that.