Downswings

[fisherman]

I have gone / am going through a bit of a a torrid time at the moment. Everything seems to be going against me. Let me just give you some background:

I started at FR 25nl with absolutely no concept of bankroll management or poker in general really. I put $20 (not even a full buy in) and had a winrate of 7.55PTBB/100 over 23k hands, making $850 and learnt many things along the way. I then moved up to $50nl FR with a win rate of 5.88PTBB/100 winning $1400 over 24k hands. I then moved on to $100nl FR and had a winrate of 8.36PTBB/100 over 13k hands winning $2200. By now I had won about $5k including bonuses. As you can imagine I was pretty happy and thought I was a solid winning poker player and although I was up about $400 on poker EV I though I had made $5k more by skill than luck. I thought I had a sound understanding of the game at micro and small stakes and was quite content to grind it out at 100NL making $50/hour as I was doing with maybe a view to moving up to 200NL when I had a sizeable bankroll.

However from thereon in it all started going wrong. I had had minor downswings of maybe 3 BIs before but out of nowhere I lost 6BIs at 100NL in 1500. I switched to 6-max, something I saw as necessary to continue to maximize profit since there were many more games available. I then lost a further 6BIs at 100NL 6-max. I was down $400 in EV for this period meaning I was level in EV overall. At this point I was in freefall so I decided to stop and pulled all my money out of my poker account.

I didn't play for a couple of months until recently when I deposited $200. I ground that out at 10nl to $500 at a winrate of 8.4PTBB over 17.5k hands. I found making a few $/hour very frustrating and was on the end of some horrific luck, for example I flopped set over set twice and failed to win either: on one the guy hit quads on the river; on the other the cards came runner runner to make a straight for a split pot. Having reached the magic 20BI I moved up to 25nl 6-max but had another large losing streak, dropping 10BIs in 3.5k hands. At this point I was so frustrated it is untrue. I was running sooooooooooooo bad - poker ev said I was down 6BI for 10nl and 7BI for 25nl. Admittedly I should have dropped back down to 10nl but I couldn't face making $4/hour so I just decided that I would stay at 25nl and if I dropped to my original $200 that I would take that money out and be done with poker completely. Fortunately my luck seems to have turned around and I am at $460 but I my luck is still against me!

Forgive the long winded post but I just needed to explain what's happened. Basically I have just doubted my poker skills massively. I don't understand how I could be such a good winning player in my first 60k hands but then have such a terrible downswing and then suck at 25nl where the players play way too loose! I had planned on making money from poker over the summer as I am a student and £20/hr at 100nl is much better than any £6/hr summer job I can get (I'm English). What I want to know is:

1. Does it sound like I am a good player and should I continue?
2. What is the longest / worst downswing you guys have had in terms of hands played and money/BIs lost?
3. How did you cope with it?
4. Is 6-max more swingy than FR and if so why?

[AlphaKennyBody]

Sounds like you're in the middle (or hopefully end) of a standard cooler. 3.5K hands is really nothing at all. A couple months ago I went through my own 10 buyin downswing through about 2K hands, and a couple of days ago dropped 4 BIs in 500 hands. Both times I shut down the tables for the day and took it upon myself to analyze my play: run everything through PokerEV to determine if it was variance or bad play, look at the hands in which I had lost the most and see if I could've played them differently, post hands, and read/reread articles around the site. The important thing is to realize when to stop if you're tilting or whatever, and take a break from anywhere from several hours to a couple of days to clear your head.

And yeah, 6-max is higher variance than FR because you are forced to play more hands since the blinds come around quicker. You can't just sit and wait for monsters as the blinds will eat you alive and you'll also become soooooo exploitable. Btw, why the switch to 6-max if you were destroying FR? Could the problem be that you're playing 6-max with a FR strategy?

[grnydrowave2]

It sucks, doesn't it?

I'll start by saying that I very much doubt that you crushed FR over 60k hands with a losing style. It's certainly possible, but very unlikely. I don't have an intimate knowledge of the mathematics of variance, with the standard deviations and probabilities of prolonged downswings, but I do know that it happens to the best of us. Perhaps someone else will enlighten us with some numbers.

I would think that 6-max should actually be less swingy because you ought to be netting a higher winrate there, which generally results in less variance. I could be wrong. Perhaps you haven't adjusted properly to 6-max. Study your game closely, post hands, ask questions, and see if there are any glaring leaks in your play.

I know exactly how you feel. I crushed the micros over ~35k hands without any considerable bumps in the road, and proceeded to hit a 10 buyin downswing at 50nl. I too was demoralized and doubted my skills. Ever since, I've found myself quitting poker for months at a time whenever I hit a rough patch. I'm currently experiencing a 20k hand breakeven stretch.

Don't fall into the same self-defeatist mindset as I have. As long as you are a winning player, and I think you are, then you will prevail over time. Downswings are inevitable, but you just need to keep your chin up and fight through them.

[fisherman]

Poker EV has a new feature which I've just noticed which is that it tells you the chance that you would run this bad or good. For my time at 10nl and 25nl there was a 4.9% chance that I would run this bad or worse which is slightly annoying! O well, just got to keep grinding away and hope my luck turns...

[fisherman]

OK this is ridiculous. I try to play another session and it just keeps on happening. I get my money in as a 91% and 68% in pots worth a total of 220BB and I lose both (less than 3% chance of that happening) so I run 1.75 BIs down in luck in 400 hands again.The strange thing is I am above expectation for number of sets flopped but, if they lose every time it's not good! I really don't know what to do. I have dropped to $400 and am now gonna play 10nl til I get up to $500 and try and pick up 25nl again then. That's the best I can hope for really. I also tilted away $15 CR bluffing people who can't be bluffed!!!!

For the 10k hands I've played at 25nl I have run -9BIs for to add to the -6 which I ran at 10nl. The chance of running that bad is now under 1.5%. Ridiculous. All I can say I'm glad this isn't at 100nl where I used to play because that would be $1500 under expectation and that really would hurt.

[BankItDrew]

Keep your chin up.

Try not to waiver from your game.

grynydrowave hit everything on the head.... he said everything i wanted to say.

[speedcake]

dont feel bad man. I'm currently on easily my worst downswing since I started playing the game. Ive been learning for a while and really feel like I understand the game better than I ever have, and I had been playing like it. Was on the verge of moving up to $25NL with (300 online BR and another 100 or so won in local home games Im ready to upload), and then it hit.

I'm down 24 BI's in the past week and have dropped to 6max .02/.05 limits. I know some of it is my poor play, I've made some bad decisions, called a few bets I knew better than to call. But I've also hit a string of coolers/bad beats that have left me really discouraged and like you , questioning my game. It's been so sick, and endless parade of 2 outers and other fun beats.

I keep thinking the best way to get through it is to just keep playing my game, but it the hits keep coming. Im on the verge of dropping to $2 NL with my last 60 online bucks, probably should anyway. But I'm sloggin it out with $5 buy ins at .02/.05.

Every hand I keep thinking ok this is the one things will begin to look a bit brighter. Hasn't happened yet, but I'm keeping position because seriously, it can't get much worse.

So don't stop, tighten up and play your game. It will turn around. PM me if you want to compare notes and tales. maybe we can help each other get over this hump.

[jyms]

Go read This--> The Newbie Circle of Death

[fisherman]

Go read This--> The Newbie Circle of Death

That is an interesting and useful post and something which I can relate to. However, I would say that I have not been on a true cycle because I voluntarily withdrew my bankroll, I did not lose it. Also with phase V the guy appears to be emboldened by his success and therefore loosened up thinking he can hit a flop with 72 but I have not done that and have stayed pretty true to my game. Phases VI and VII is right where I'm at at the moment!

I think I'll save myself. I have 40BIs at 10nl. That should be enough surely. I'm going away for a long weekend, hopefully that will clear my mind and resettle myself so that I can come back on Monday and get some healthy results!

[Stacks]

40BIs at 10nl is plenty. I would suggest playing 10nl until you turn that $400 into at least $600-$700 dollars. Then move up to 25nl. Staying at 25nl until around $1100 or so. Now if you start losing alot at 10nl don't get overanxious and jump up to recover; instead drop down and rebuild at 5nl. Yes it will take time, but all good things do. So you must be willing to put in the hard work or else it won't pay off in the end.

[speedcake]

well....I think posting in this thread has done something to the monkey on my back. As I said before, I dropped down to .02/.05 NL buying in at $5. Was a little rough at first adjusting to the level and I only sat at 2 tables at a time to start, but I had a +6 buyin session this afternoon. Woot!

You might be rolled for $10NL, but dude try one lvl lower. Even if only for a couple thousand hands, pwning those noobs will make you feel better and get some confidence rolling. You'll also likely learn a couple of things.

Good luck!

[fisherman]

AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

Just a quick update. I finally got a goodish run at 10nl (read: break even) and cleared a $75 bonus so moved up to 25nl when I reached $580. Had a great first couple of sessions to get up to $710 but am now back in my old ways and am back down to $630 after some bad luck...again! Since I started in playing in April I am down 10BIs in luck at 25nl over 13k hands and 9BIs at 10nl over 29k hands...ridiculous

[bjsaust]

If you're just going to focus on your bad beats and how you run bad in AI pots when you get in as favorite, you're probably not going to fix anything else.