100NL: River: hand aginst passive nit

[jimmy44]

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players
Seat 1: Hero [ AC,KH ] ($98.50 in chips)
Seat 2: SB ($103.05 in chips)
Seat 3: BB ($159.05 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG ($49.90 in chips)
Seat 5: UTG+1 ($208.55 in chips)
Seat 6: MP1 ($130.40 in chips)
Seat 7: MP2 ($101.25 in chips)
Seat 8: MP3 ($110.15 in chips)
Seat 9: CO+1 ($96.35 in chips)
Seat 10: CO ($108.70 in chips)
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is Button with A K
6 folds, CO calls, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: K T 2 ($10.5, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8, CO calls.

Turn: 8 ($26.5, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks.

River: 8 ($26.5, 2 players)
CO bets $20, Hero ???

No specific reads.
CO was 13/5/0.7( river AF: 2)
Do you think this guys could bet river OOP a hand like KQ or KJ? Maybe I'm being too nitty ...

(Edit: Corrected the wrong BB & the wrong CO/Button reference)

[pokerfan]

you mean CO is 13/5/0.7( river AF: 2) or your own stat? confused. i think you raised too much with AK hand IP preflop if big blind is $0.5. As played, pot control on the turn against a nitty player is great but you gotta value bet vs loose fish/donk in my opinion. River is a call.

[DaHorror]

Judging by stacks this is likely a $0.50/$1 table and the converter doesn't reflect that properly.

I agree that there's nothing generally wrong with checking the turn on this board if you are looking to showdown reasonably and/or get a river bet in from a weaker hand...in which case you pretty much have to call the river as you've induced a bet from Tx, Kx, pairs, QJ, etc.
It's a little odd that he fires more than just a blocking bet on the river though...that pretty much marks him as really strong or really weak and trying to push you off of JJ/QQ/less but I'd sniif out that it probably leans more toward the bluff-only side on his part. Meaning that you haven't shown much strength so are likely to be weaker than a pair of kings and he still expects you to call a big bet on the river?
That doesn't make much sense from a 'standard-play' perspective.
Granted many folks aren't thinking that way and can only bet their hands and not care whether you call or not.

[Fnord]

Pay the man his monies

[d0zer]

Villain could very well be thinking you're weak here, and that you just made a c-bet after missing the flop, and now he's decided to try and take a stab at the pot.

If he's got a set or aces he played it stupid, but as it stands you've got the best reasonable 2pr and as Fnord so eloquently put it: you gots to pay the man his monies...

[jimmy44]

Thanks guys, just wanted to make sure that even with such a nitty stats this should be a call.
What about if villain was in position and I was OOP? Would you still call?

[Pythonic]

This looks like a set or river bluff to me, take your pick.

[Khabbi]

This looks like a set or river bluff to me, take your pick.

This is very likely not a set because I don't see villain calling the PF raise with 8x.

We're looking at likely some weird 2-pair KT maybe. There aren't any straights out there, so it's either that, a weaker K or you're just crushed.

As played, I think you call here becuase of the weakness you displayed. He could have you on JJ, QQ or AQ.