confidence to drop hands...

[Chopper]

at lower stakes against random opponents, making "big laydowns" is often a no-no. these guys are just too stupid/bad to justify it. however, there are times where you "know" a player well enough to drop rather strong holdings...like sets.

the rule is "dont drop sets at microstakes," and its largely true. but, my question is: based on math, when can we?

i see it a lot. i bet, taking away odds, and villain keeps calling...chasing his draw. it completes, and he donks 1/4 the pot. or 1/2.

how confident do i have to be to make the laydown?

as i understand it...if i am 75% sure he has hit his draw, i can not call more than 25% of the pot, right? or, $2.50 into a $7.50 pot. if i am about 50/50, i can call half, but no more, correct?

i just want to know mathematically because i am starting to ask myself on the river...how sure am i? and, what are my odds in accordance to my confidence?

[sejje]

more than 25% of the pot, right? or, $2.50 into a $7.50 pot.

My gorilla maths say that's 33%

[Chopper]

the way i figure it...he lays $2.50 into $7.50...making the pot $10. hence, my 25%...$2.50 into $10.

[thizzSantaCruz]

I never fold a set for a 1/4 pot lead on the river...maybe start potting your drawing hands versus these players, and if they still call increase it, maybe bet 2x pot. In hands like this you want them to keep chasing, you wind up making more money in the long run.

[Chopper]

definitely understood. but, i while i am raising my bet sizes against these players, and it could be just variance of some sort, everytime i see that dinky little river bet on either a turned or rivered flush....its the flush.

i cant ever lay it down with even TP because i get somewhere between 10:1 and 3:1 to call. thats such a small bet, but i also KNOW what it is when it happens....or at least i know i am beat.

is the math right? most times i am at least 75% sure because i've seen villain do it before.

i do need to start potting drawing boards, but it seems variance gets me there and they are so passive they are calling down with a weak two pair against my TPTK.

i'm sure i'll make the adjustment. i was just wondering about the math.

[pgil]

never fold the set to a small river bet, ever.

I am not certain, but I think that the math you want to be working out here is how much can you call so that your opp does not win enough (implied odds wise) to justify his earlier calls. Also taking into account his percentage of having a different draw than the one that came in and how often he can bluff you out by repping that draw. That will get you a much more solid number, one that doesn't rely so much on your feel on the river.

[Ash256]

range/equity

[Miffed22001]

i dont think laying down hands will make that much difference to your bbs/100 unless you never fold on a 3 flush board

[Chopper]

never fold the set to a small river bet, ever.

how about TPTK, as thats the spot i am frequently seeing?

ash, care to explain how to calculate the equity in regards to the range i put him on? i assume you were also answering the question of charging too much for the implieds.

i would be interested in seeing ideas/philosophies of the things to consider/calculate.

thanks.

[Ash256]

never fold the set to a small river bet, ever.

how about TPTK, as thats the spot i am frequently seeing?

ash, care to explain how to calculate the equity in regards to the range i put him on? i assume you were also answering the question of charging too much for the implieds.

i would be interested in seeing ideas/philosophies of the things to consider/calculate.

thanks.

In terms of river, work out how many hands in his range beat you and how many hands don't, for instance if 16 hands beat you and 4 don't then your equity is 20%.

Problem is with this is that it assumes perfection.. I have huge problems with finding a hand I beat and calling, even though I know that the hand I beat is a really doubtful part of his range.

Anyone else care to chime in with how to get over this?

[Jack Sawyer]

my poker math is very bad, this is definitely an area I'm constantly improving upon


that said, sometimes unimproved when I know villain is a suit-chaser/ straight chaser we fold
but by that time, all the money was systematically bet to make the push/fold decision easier, so it never really matters


but I do get away from big hands probably more than I should

[potdragn]

When I have a set, and there is some sort of draw, I am usually AI on turn at the latest.....

[Chopper]

When I have a set, and there is some sort of draw, I am usually AI on turn at the latest.....

imo, when you are doing that you are overbetting the pot at some point. and, that folds players out causing you to miss value when draws only come in 30ish% of the time. dont get me wrong, you need to deny drawing odds, but you want chasers. 2 psb's dont get it in on the turn against 100bb stacks.

[BankItDrew]

if the pot is $7.50 and the bet is $2.50.. making the pot $10, and you need to call $2.50 to see a showdown... the call needs to be correct 20% of the time to break even. ash256 is right.

Here's the simple explanation on why it's 20% and not 25%:

Pot = $10
Call = $2.50

let's say you call 4 times but lose all 4, you are -$10. Let's call one more time, you win, you keep the 5th $2.50 attempt plus you win a $10 pot. voila, break-even.