What are the odds? Did I get cheated?

[gymcar]

I was playing on a table and a big rucku took place prior to the hand. Somehow a casino employee that was collecting the chip boxes managed to knock over the stack of player number 2. Player 2 stands up and makes a big scene about it. Eventually the staff came over and picked the chips up off the floor.

Then the hands were dealt. I was BB. I got J7 of hearts and didn't think twice about the commotion. Two people limped in. I checked. The flop comes A24 all hearts. So I have a flopped flush.

I'm in first position and I bet 30 at the 5/10 game. The next hand raises 60 and the button calls the 90 bet. I then go all in and both players call.

We all turn over flushes. The turn is another heart followed by a spade on the river.

The button had the king of hearts and won the hand. He had won an earlier all in hand when he called pockets queens with on an A8 off.

Does this sound suspicious? What are the odds of three people hitting flushes on the flop?

[sarbox68]

Lemme see.... 13 suited cards... 3 people w/ 2 is 6... 4 on the board with the flop and the turn... so 10 out of 13 from a 52 card deck...

x = 3 * 2 + 4 - (y * 2) where y is the number of players at the table / z% probability of ruckus.........

awww hell.... dude, sounds like you just had a bad beat. I can't do this math but I can tell u I have run up against flush over flush at least a dozen times in the past 10K hands I've played. So arbitrarily determining whether the odds exist for three to have flushes, I'd say small but obviously possible...

Heck... what are the odds for a Royal Flush... but they happen. Of course in 52,000 online hands I haven't seen one yet, but my chart o' poker hand rankings tell me they're possible!

It sucks, but you'll make it back over the long haul...

[bigslikk]

Well let's see if I can calculate the odds:
You each have two hearts. That means 3 * 2 = 6 hearts are out. There are 13 hearts, so 13 - 6 = 7 hearts left in the deck.

Chances of each flop card being a heart, multiplied together:
7 hearts / (52 cards - the 6 hole cards = 46 left in the deck)

7/46 * 6/45 * 5/44 = ~0.2 percent.

Note: NOT 2 percent. 2 TENTHS of a percent. So... it's fated to happen twice in a thousand trials. Once in 500 such scenarios (this is given all three of you have suited hole cards of the same suit, and no other information is known).

It seems like just a freak incident, though, not a con. What do you think happened? That the dealer was distracted enough to let a rigged deck get placed on the table? And that the new deck was left unshuffled and uncut with no protest by anyone at the table? Odds are, it's all in your head. My condolences on having the third-to-nuts (o wait fourth).

[donkbee]

hmm doesn't quite qualify for bad beats forum, so i guess it can stay here

of course you didn't get cheated. it's mathematically possible, it happened, and you unfortunately lost. i'm sure you'll see some equally crazy things in the future, too.

welcome to ftr.

[Dashi]

Don't want to sound like a troll here, but honestly with that kind of action with a flush flop, did you really expect to have the best hand? Not faulting your play at all, and while it is rare to have 3 people have a flush, not totally unheard of.

As for the odds of you being cheated, I would say precisely zero. Worked at casino's before and something like this is would require the total and complete ignorance of security in the casino as well as the dealer at the casino being an inside man. If I was a dealer and wanted to make money stealing from my employer, there are far less involved and far more profitable ways to go about it.

[martindcx1e]

improbable does not equal impossible. plus it's not even that improbable.

[pgil]

ive encountered three people with a flopped flush, so it does happen, and has happened to more than just you

[gymcar]

OK. So there is a .02 percent chance of three hearts hitting the board. That is pretty minute. But what are the odds that the other hearts out are split 2 2 and 2 in the hands of three players? This is assuming that nobody else had a heart. I would think that would be much less than the .02 percent.

Taking that in mind, what are the odds of this happening? I understand better when figures are more like, 1 in 100,000.

[gymcar]

It seemed that when I bet and the other person raised that they were probably on a heart draw or they had a paired ace with a decent kicker. There was also a straight draw on the board. So there were a lot of options. As it turned out the person that raised me only had a ten high flush. The person that I figured as the possible cheater had the k and smooth called. I would have done the same with his hand.

With the ace of hearts on the board I figured the odds of someone else flopping a flush with the K or Q kicker were slim. I feared that they might be shopping for the extra heart to complete their flush, therefore, I went all in to run off the possible flush hunters. Remember, only two cards existed that would beat my hand and they had to already be paired with another heart. Otherwise the person would have only had less than a 24% chance of hitting another heart.

How would you have played any different?


Don't want to sound like a troll here, but honestly with that kind of action with a flush flop, did you really expect to have the best hand? Not faulting your play at all, and while it is rare to have 3 people have a flush, not totally unheard of.

As for the odds of you being cheated, I would say precisely zero. Worked at casino's before and something like this is would require the total and complete ignorance of security in the casino as well as the dealer at the casino being an inside man. If I was a dealer and wanted to make money stealing from my employer, there are far less involved and far more profitable ways to go about it.[/quote]

[bode]

this just happened to me last week. i had 78s, someone had KJs, and someone had Axs. Ive seen it 2 or 3 times this year over 175k hands.

[spoonitnow]

it doesn't matter what the odds are if it's already happened

that's like saying omfg what are the odds that i would be typing this post word-for-word like i am right now

[sarbox68]

Ummm.... 1 post / 170 words * (559 posts / 80 wpp) ^ 26 letters in the .....

of f- it.... I can't do that math either.......

[Hermann the Lombard]

OK. So there is a .02 percent chance of three hearts hitting the board. That is pretty minute. But what are the odds that the other hearts out are split 2 2 and 2 in the hands of three players? This is assuming that nobody else had a heart. I would think that would be much less than the .02 percent.

Taking that in mind, what are the odds of this happening? I understand better when figures are more like, 1 in 100,000.

Even then, if you play 100,000 hands you're likely to see it (as Bode did repeatedly in 175,000 hands). A finite chance means that it WILL happen from time to time. Obviously the odds are a lot higher by the river and I've seen flush over flush a couple of times in the last 500 hands, including a triple last night...along with a board of AAAAK with grumbling among those who folded!

[Dashi]

I don't fault your play one bit. Just saying it's a situation where you shouldn't have been surprised to see flushes. The fact that they beat you was unfortunate.

[Aces]

Ummm.... 1 post / 170 words * (559 posts / 80 wpp) ^ 26 letters in the .....

of f- it.... I can't do that math either.......

lol...well tuned sarcasmometer...

[Ash256]

improbable does not equal impossible.

[sarbox68]

Difference between improbably and impossible...

Improbable - you seeing 3 flushes

Impossible - me turning $200 into $3,000 like Ash over here.....

[I Like Pie]

I gotta say that I've never seen 3 flopped flushes before and I've had about 8-10 Royal Flushes in my poker "career".

[daven]

a lot of people always limp Axs, suited connectors and even Kxs when they get the chance. So flushes happen. Quite a lot. And i've been on both ends of the flopped flush pain a few times in less than 100k hands. Happens. It's hard to fold weak flushes, sometimes it makes sense though. I'm stoked cos I folded AA on the flop today, and it was a good call...

[lolzzz_321]

Post deleted by courtiebee

[Jack Sawyer]

ive encountered three people with a flopped flush, so it does happen, and has happened to more than just you

at very loose tables, this happens all the time

[Ash256]

Was it a professional dealer?

[martindcx1e]

yes you got cheated. contact a lawyer asap. please keep us posted on this situation.

[spoonitnow]

Difference between improbably and impossible...

Improbable - you seeing 3 flushes

Impossible - me turning $200 into $3,000 like Ash over here.....

It's not impossible, I've turned -$200 into $3000 and more.

P.S. I've seen set over set over set over set in a tournament before, so I win.

[Ash256]

Difference between improbably and impossible...

Improbable - you seeing 3 flushes

Impossible - me turning $200 into $3,000 like Ash over here.....

lol, it took a while, believe me.