50NL: AA bad turn card

[jimmy44]

EverestPoker Game #1843389768: Table Berlin-1 - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:37:34 - 2007/07/23
Seat 2: winnie85 ($47.25)
Seat 3: Hoenemekkie ($53.00)
Seat 4: -Jenny-88- ($97.55)
Seat 5: dom1960 ($33.85)
Seat 6: Hero ($62.85)
Seat 7: phutures.com ($104.20)
Seat 8: Dirk666 ($19.40)
Seat 9: blaffmaker00 ($11.00)
Seat 10: LEI ($104.40)
Hoenemekkie posts the small blind of $0.25
-Jenny-88- posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[ ]
dom1960 folds
Hero raises to $2.00
phutures.com folds
Dirk666 folds
blaffmaker00 folds
LEI calls $2.00
winnie85 folds
Hoenemekkie folds
-Jenny-88- folds
*** FLOP *** [ ] (pot: $4.75)
Hero bets $3.50
LEI raises to $15.25
Hero calls $11.75
*** TURN *** [ ] [] (pot= $35.25)
Hero checks
LEI bets $87.15 and is all-in
Hero ???

villain is 31/12/1.3. Flop & turn aggression 4.
I've c-bet some pots recently.
On the flop I put him on QJ or a flush draw (maybe on AQ/KQ). Would a player shove here on the turn with a set, fearing the flush? His line did not seem at all like a set (e.g. very big raise on the flop).
Taking my flop analysis, I'm in front of the flush draw and AQ, but behind QJ and KQ.
Can you call the turn? Is a push on the flop a better line?

[Fnord]

LoL I played the same hand tonight.

Shove and L2River

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($168.25)
Button ($120.80)
Fnord ($99)
BB ($17.20)
UTG ($157)

Preflop: Fnord is SB with A, A.
2 folds, Button raises to $4, Fnord raises to $12, 1 fold, Button calls $8.

Flop: ($25) T, 5, K (2 players)
Fnord bets $18, Button calls $18.

Turn: ($61) Q (2 players)
Fnord bets $69 (All-In), Button calls $69.

River: ($0) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $199

Results in white below:
Fnord has As Ac (straight, ace high).
Button has Kd Qd (two pair, kings and queens).
Outcome: Fnord wins $199.

[euphoricism]

a push on the flop is a much better line. If hes got two pair you arent that far behind, and youve got the backdoor FD as well.

As is, i think you gotta be folding the turn.

[Pythonic]

Villian either has AK or KQ (most likely KQ)

[Fnord]

a push on the flop is a much better line.

Pretty much. You want to commit on the flop and not play guessing games with so many scare cards and what figures to be the best hand.

[Chopper]

i pretty much agree with euph.

push over the flop raise, if you want to keep playing. he may be on a draw, but its likely QJ, KQ+. youre only behind QJ as of the flop. and if the K hits turn, you have 9+ outs to save your ass (any T, 4, and 2 A's).

as played, its a fold to his turn push...you only have 6 outs now into a severely overbet pot. i just cant see you beating anything that would raise you on flop and push the turn when you called the raise.

[jimmy44]

Yup, should have pushed the flop ...
If villain min-raises the flop or raises to $10, do you steal push even if he could have a set of 4's?

[Chopper]

if i get minraised, i call and look for at least a club. then, i prolly dont go anywhere, but i dont get aggressive...especially if he minraised...i let him bet soft all day...and let me suckout or call down cheaply for future information...if i get real lucky, i win UI...but then kick myself for not taking back the initiative.

[wufwugy]

So you guys happy to get all in with aces on just about any flop?

Fnord, who are you on Stars?