Casino hand against solid players

[thizzSantaCruz]

I have been sitting at this table for about 5 hours and it is filled with all solid players. I have never experienced a table like this before at a casino, everyone plays TAG and is good. I had been trying to get floor to move me with no avail for a long time. Villain is a standard TAG, does not seem to do anything too tricky, he is capable of floating and pouncing on weakness and laying down good hands to the right board. We have not tangoed too much but when he did he took down a big pot from me with a straight against my trips. I have been playing a lot of hands fast and got called on a big turn over push with top pair+flush draw and I sucked out hitting two pair on the river (my kicker was beat for top pair). I know he is good enough to pick up on my playing patterns.

Blinds 2/2 9 handed effective stacks $175

Hero has UTG and raises to $10
folded to MP1 who reraises to $25

Now I had seen villain re-raise once with AA and another time with QQ. I put his range on something like AK+ JJ+. Even though he is solid I do not see him doing this without a really good hand. I call becasue I figure I can set hunt.


Pot is around $50
Flop comes

Money!!! I hit my set. My line is.........

[thizzSantaCruz]

flop goes check/check
turn is 7d


line check please.......

*flop was pretty std, adding this for more info and more intrest*

[mixchange]

Bet the flop. Villain could be slowplaying AQ, a flush could hit on turn, KJ makes a straight with a 10 on turn... We want to build pot, so I bet $35 on flop.

you made your set and he's tight, so he's probably hit the flop. Bet.

As played, I bet $50 on flop. We need to build pot and full bet may look bluffy. there are also now 2 FD's. If he re-raises, push.

[thizzSantaCruz]

I was thinking donking into villain here would be a good play. If I throw out what looks like a weak feeler bet I am pretty sure he raises as that is std. If he raises I get an easy push over him, but at the time I did not think about it. I checked hoping to check raise but when he checked behind the hand changed drastically.

You mention the FD's but I am not worried at all about them. The flop spade draw is not in villains range, the only hand I possibly see him 3-betting with is AsKs but the As is on the board so it is not possible. Straight possibilities are also ruled out, he is not 3-betting with KJ.

As I said before his range here is AK+, JJ+. If I bet JJ folds, QQ is stacking me, KK might give me some action I just need to extract value. AA I am getting stacked and AQ I am probably stacking. AK most likely as well. How do I extract value? There are really no scare cards that can hit here except another A or Q but those could be scare cards for him too. So I definantly do not mind checking. Any thoughts guys? I thought this was a very interesting spot but it is not picking up a lot of responses from the better players who I really thought could give me some good insight.

[Muzzard]

If his reraising range is AQ+/JJ+....

It's one of those WA/WB situations. I can't see him checking behind here with AK/AQ, possibly JJ/KK, but you aren't going to get much action from these I don't think. I suppose KK might think he's ahead on the turn with the c/c fop.

The other possibilities are QQ and AA, unless his 3-bet rnge is wider than you think?

My question really is why is a 3 bettor checking this flop, he either has a monster AA/QQ or is scared of the A (JJ/KK) and you aren't going to get much money out of him here.

Anyway as for the play, I think I lead out on the flop, try to build a pot and hope he has AK/AQ, he's folding JJ and maybe KK - might call and fold to heat on the turn. AA/QQ are the only other parts of his range, if his 3-bets are a pretty tight range as you suggest and these are crushing you.

In the heat of the moment, I'm not sure I could fold a set here, but if you get sufficient action like a reraise on the turn if you lead out, the only hand that your beating is AQ if your sure about his range.

Like I say I lead out here on the flop, but as played with the check/check on the flop. I'd lead out on the turn call a raise and maybe check call the river...but thats with sufficient thought. If I wasn't thinking deep I'd probably push over a raise on the turn.

[Fnord]

Check the turn too. This hand reeks.

You guys are giving him WAY too much credit pre-flop, althought the small re-pop has alarm bells going off.

After the flop check behind I put his range at:
AA/QQ/AK/AQ/KK/JJ/TT with some trash thrown in where he got too chicken shit to bet a great board for him or picked up a signal that you were strong.

Check and keep a really close eye on his body language.

[overflow]

Fnord, you suck.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

44,550 games 0.375 secs 118,800 games/sec

Board: As 9s Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.884% 76.88% 00.00% 34252 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 23.116% 23.12% 00.00% 10298 0.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[thizzSantaCruz]

Who thinks donking the flop here is a good play?

[overflow]

You're way ahead of everything but QQ and AA, I don't see why a flop lead is a bad idea, if he's got AQ he'll think you have AK and might even overshove.

[overflow]

A little more math for you (this is all based on the board as of the flop):

Villian has 6 ways of either having AA or QQ (3 for AA, 3 for QQ):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 04.343% 04.34% 00.00% 258 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 95.657% 95.66% 00.00% 5682 0.00 { AA, QQ }

There are 9 ways the Villian could have AQ.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.717% 81.72% 00.00% 7281 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 18.283% 18.28% 00.00% 1629 0.00 { AQs, AQo }

There are 12 ways the villian could have AK:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.286% 95.29% 00.00% 11320 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 04.714% 04.71% 00.00% 560 0.00 { AKs, AKo }

There are 18 ways he could have TT,JJ, or KK:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 86.380% 86.38% 00.00% 15393 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 13.620% 13.62% 00.00% 2427 0.00 { KK, JJ-TT }


So our equity function looks something like this if we assume he calls with AQ,AA,QQ every time, calls with AK 50% of the time and will always fold TT,JJ, and KK.

(6/45)(0.95)(-150)+(6/45)(0.05)(350)+(9/45)(0.818)(350)+(9/45)(0.182)(-150)+(12/45)(0.953)(0.50)(350)+(12/45)(0.50)(50)+(12/45)(0.047)(0.50)(-150)+(18/45)(50):
$105.33 +EV.

Gamboooooooooool. Open shove the the flop looks like a really good play.

[mixchange]

I'm sorry, its just too nitty to worry about AA and QQ. I bet flop $35, bet turn, felt this and I don't care at all about set over set AQ and maybe AK will act the same way. as AA and QQ probably will if you show some strength.

As played, the flop check is not terrible but I don't see why, the whole flop check then try to build a huge pot quickly reeks of a set.

You want to be playing for stacks so let's build a pot on the flop. I just posted a hand similar to this where a TAG villain had AKs and the flop was AK5 and I had 555, we both check the flop and the pot ends up being smaller because of one less betting street and a flush draw which scared him.

I think you have to at least be mindful of the flush draw, he doesn't have to have a PP just because he re-raised. Has he shown down every hand he has RR at this point? AK or AQs are likely in his range.

[overflow]

In summary:
There are about 24 ways he folds, 15 ways you have him crushed and he calls, and 6ways he has you crushed and calls.

[overflow]

im sorry, its just too nitty to slowplay here and worry about AA and QQ. I bet flop, raise turn, felt this and I don't care at all about set over set AQ and maybe AK will act the same way. bet flop $35

As played, the flop check is not terrible, if he has kings he's scared of the A but then what could you have? Queens or jacks? So you wouldn't get much action out of kings imo, just bet hard and play for stacks, bet $45 on turn I want to build a pot.

I doubt a $45bet lead on the turn is more +EV than open shoving either street. The only way shoving turns into a bad play is if he folds AK 100%, and folds AQ more than half the time. I'd have to recrunch to compensate for that though. Even then you win the $50 in the pot often enough to make up for the times you're losing $150.

[mixchange]

open shoving is the dumbest thing I can think of

[overflow]

Math supports my conclusion, what supports yours?

Come up with an EV model for this situation that's more advantageous than shoving and I might agree with you.

[overflow]

woops, my math was off, let me rerun that equity calc.

There, fixed the math, and the play is still $105.33 +EV.

Mix, I challenge you to produce an EV model for a line here that makes us more than net $105.33 when we execute it.

[mixchange]

no offense but lets not wreck his thread with arguments about open shoving the flop. Start a new thread about open shoving flops with monsters if you want, it's not a exactly a generally accepted way to make money with your best hands. I will reply there. Your equation is mostly assumptions, poker is more reads and playing players that math

there's math, and there are humans and the way they will react to your bet.

[overflow]

Mix, the "generally accepted" way to make money changes when you can reduce the villian's range drastically and you have a board that's favorable to his range for him to call an all-in way behind. If the flop were 973 it might be different, but it's not.

I put up equity calculations, either refute them with tangible evidence or admit that it's the most profitable play.

[mixchange]

ahh I get it now how you make all that money at 10nl!

[overflow]

Uhm yeah, poker = equity calculations.... Anyone want to disagree with that? The correct solution to every wagering scenario in which decisions are made on incomplete information is always based on equity calculations. And your decision is always correct, so long as the math is. Which means, as long as my EV model is very closely representing the villian's calling and folding ranges we can expect to extract that return. In this case open shoving makes us $105.33 dollars. Are there any lines that make us more? I doubt it.

[Ash256]

It's close..

Which end of his range are we shooting at? Do we go for a small pot to get money out of the lower end, or do we go apeshit and go for WA/WB vs the top end of his range?


Ughhh...


I'm quite in the mood for the former, but I'm a pessimist.

Plus we have to remember that whilst his range is narrow, ours certainly isn't.

[overflow]

But we're WA more than we're way behind with what he's calling with generally. Unless he's a super nit that will lay down Top Two and AK 100% of the time. And even in those scenarios you're still picking up a ton of equity for what's already in the pot.

If he's willing to overshove our lead bet with hands we beat, and we're going to fold to a shove, aren't we giving up to begin with? And if we're willing to call the overshove in the first place, what do we gain by not lead-shoving, and open shoving the turn?

[Ash256]

But we're WA more than we're way behind with what he's calling with generally. Unless he's a super nit that will lay down Top Two and AK 100% of the time. And even in those scenarios you're still picking up a ton of equity for what's already in the pot.

If he's willing to overshove our lead bet with hands we beat, and we're going to fold to a shove, aren't we giving up to begin with? And if we're willing to call the overshove in the first place, what do we gain by not lead-shoving, and open shoving the turn?

We don't want him to fold! So we play mousey-mousey and get money from the hands that he would fold if we went apeshit.

[Ash256]

But we're WA more than we're way behind with what he's calling with generally. Unless he's a super nit that will lay down Top Two and AK 100% of the time. And even in those scenarios you're still picking up a ton of equity for what's already in the pot.

If he's willing to overshove our lead bet with hands we beat, and we're going to fold to a shove, aren't we giving up to begin with? And if we're willing to call the overshove in the first place, what do we gain by not lead-shoving, and open shoving the turn?

We're not folding! So we play mousey-mousey and get money from the hands that he would fold if we went apeshit.

[overflow]

True enough but when we do that we're leaving money on the table with monsters he'd call an open shove on the flop with, but might get away from the stronger line that playing mousey-mousey generates the appearance of.

Maybe I'm looking at this wrong though.

[overflow]

Is there any sized bet on the flop that AK,KK,JJ,TT calls that shoving gets him to fold? Maybe. You might get an extra $20-$30 out of AK or KK, but JJ and TT are folding to any bet. 3/4 lead doesn't seem to gain us much in equity at all.

Edit for readability.

[overflow]

Don't attack my conclusion, attack the numbers that generated the conclusion. Like I said if there's an EV model here that I'm failing to grasp that is more profitable, I'd love to see it. I'd love for someone to tell me all the reasons my model is wrong. I'll even do another model based on a 3/4 lead bet, the overshove numbers, and the equity we get for a shove on the turn if he flatcalls our flop lead.

[Ash256]

If we play mousey, we check the flop, maybe check the turn, and "bluff" the river. It's simple enough to put our hand over our mouth and look uncomfortable. I still don't know whether we can get more than one street of value vs KK, TT and JJ though.

[overflow]

Villian has 15 ways to over shove our flop lead, assuming we never fold to a shove (AA,QQ,AQs,AQo):
(6/15)(0.95)(-150)+(6/15)(0.05)(350)+(9/15)(0.817)(350)+(9/15)(0.183)(-150)=$105.1

Villian has 18 ways of calling our flop bet, which will lead to a shove on the turn, which I'm not expecting villian to call in any of these circumstances with AKs,AKo, and KK:
+$110 EV.

There are 12 ways he folds to a flop lead, JJ and TT:
+$50 EV.

(15/45)(105.1)+(18/45)(110)+(12/45)(50) = $92.36

[overflow]

It would seem more profitable, in this instance to _not_ play your hand like a set.

[overflow]

If we play mousey, we check the flop, maybe check the turn, and "bluff" the river. It's simple enough to put our hand over our mouth and look uncomfortable. I still don't know whether we can get more than one street of value vs KK, TT and JJ though.

Exactly, and by giving him two potential free cards 8-10% of the time you lose your equity in the pot all together, because if a J,K, or T hits on either of the last two streets you have to seriously consider folding, more so the J or the K, but a T causes some amount of dilemma.

Also, if we give him a free card and a spade hits on the turn, it makes our decision even MORE difficult because a bunch of his hands he would've given up on the flop could contain a high spade.

[overflow]

I guess the question that needs to be answered here is:

Does an open-shove of the flop look scared more so than it looks strong? If it does it's definitely a better play. I think he gets all the money in on an open flop shove with enough the worst of it to make shoving against him +EV. More so than any other play we could make. Any 3bet in this pot is getting it all-in with the effectives, btw.

[Ash256]

In order to come to your openshoving conclusion, have you considered the EV:

- c/c, c/c, crai
- c/r, push
- b/3bai



etc
etc
etc
etc
etc

[mixchange]

I think you need more experience, overflow. Try open shoving your sets in raised pots and see how you do compared to trapping (not slowplaying -- trapping). You like statistics, run an empirical study using 100 sets you flop in raised pots and tell us the results. That's the real "proof".

Running your equity calc's are BS IMO, they make tons of assumptions and ignore all sorts of other lines that trap weaker hands, including letting our opponent catch up with hitting 2p by the river, making them pay heavily to chase draws, etc.

Most of the time when you open shove, you lose hands you can extract value from and only get called when you're beat, or if they have a hand they're going to felt anyway (e.g. AQ in this case). You give your opponent an easy decision, instead of making them make multiple decisions at smaller financial increments, until they grow pot committed and willing to part with all their chips.

I feel bad for santacruz (my hometown too, we gotta play sometime) whose post got hijacked so we can teach overflow again how to play NL. Sorry man.

[MuddyWicket]

Overflow you need to read HH1 where he works on hand ranges + decision making. Simply selecting a range and plugging it into Pokerstove is using it incorrectly. AQ or TT might be a part of his hand range but how often does he reraise with them compared to AA/KK? Your method weighs the likely hood of dominated hands too much imo.

Either way I'm going to agree with Fnord. wa/wb. There is only one hand that gives us action that we beat and I don't see it checking the flop, it wasn't in ops starting range and its not a hand most tags reraise preflop with.

[overflow]

Are you saying that AQs on the button is not, by accepted standards, a 3bet hand against a middle position opener?

Edit:
My punctuation sucks.

[thizzSantaCruz]

overflow, i was utg and villain reraised from mp1. i would say AQ from the button is in a standard TAGs reraising range but that has nothing to do with the HH.

[BankItDrew]

I like the check on the flop because a)it shows no strength with your strong hand, b) gives weaker hands opportunities to bet and win.

By the turn, I am assuming KK until villain shows me otherwise. Thus, I'm value betting the hell out of it. ie. 1/5 pot. Maybe 1/10th on river.

I will pay off set over set 99% of the time here. But until I'm told that villain won't call value bets, I'll value bet it.

[Galapogos]

Overflow, I don't know if anyone told you yet (I sort of breezed through this thread) but you do not want to open shove your set because the only hand you beat that will call this is AQ. He's a solid player, he's almost never calling with AK here. If you value bet you will extract money from KK, AK.

thizzSantaCruz, I think I like checking the flop with the intention of raising after he bets. However, since it went check/check I want to start getting small value from KK or whatever he has. If he wants to get it in, go with it, it's not even full stacks, pay off set over set everytime here.

[Fnord]

By the turn, I am assuming KK until villain shows me otherwise. Thus, I'm value betting the hell out of it. ie. 1/5 pot. Maybe 1/10th on river.

I don't think we're getting more than one call out of KK. Hence I check/call the turn and bet the river for value.

[Pelion]

Overflow you are way off here. Just because you put him on a range and you crush the range doesnt mean you should bet. In this case its pretty much a case of the hands we beat fold and the hands that beat us don't.

A more clear example is, you have TPTK. You bet a straight/flush draw flop and not insane player calls. Turn blanks and you bet again and he calls. River blanks.

At this point you crush his range of missed draws, sets, 2pairs and ocasionally a worse TP hand.

Option 1) You check and call to pick off a bluff/ don't lose as much to a set.

Option 2) You bet, missed draws fold, better hands almost always raise. You get hardly any value when ahead, and lose more when behind.