pot equity as cards fall

[Chopper]

let me see if i get this right, conceptually.

my pot equity is determined by how many players are in the hand...currently. meaning, if there are 4 others in the hand, my equity share is 20% or one part of five total players?

theoretically, that SHOULD change as players drop off on later streets? meaning, someone bets, someone folds...now my equity share changed to 25%?

raising for value should be done when your pot+implied odds are greater than your equity share? meaning, i have a pair and flush draw to the nuts, the hand is 5-way, someone bets, another calls, i should raise for equity?

strictly by the book, taking nothing else into account...like reads on player, holdings, folding off the would be callers, etc., i will hit my draw and profit more often than i will miss and cost myself...for a net gain?

[NWNewell]

No, your equity is your share of the value based on the strength of your hand. For example, if you have a 36% chance of winning by the end (either buy catching your draw, or your current hand holding up), then you have 36% of the pots equity ($50 in the pot = $18 equity).


Raising for value should be done when the amount you have to contribute to the pot on a current round compaired to the amount your opponents will contribute on the current round is less than your pot equity.

For example, if there are 2 other players in the pot (3 total). If you raise and the other two players call. Then you contributed 2 bets and they contributed 4 bets total. So, you put in 33% of all the money on this round. If you have 36% equity, then you have enough equity in this hand to make it worth the raise.

If you only have 25% chance of winning (equity), then that is less than 33% and as a result you do not have enough equity to raise for value.

[Chopper]

then how do i even guesstimate how much equity i have.

i kind of have a feel for the obvious situations...like when i have TP and an OESF draw (duh), and the like...

i guess i want to know how to figure when it is correct to raise on a draw. those are common situations where i miss by being passive and c/c-ing instead of raising. but the more i think this over, the more i think it may be a rare situation because you dont necessarily want to thin the field when you raise for value...you want callers and overcallers.

can you clarify?

[KoRnholio]

the more i think this over, the more i think it may be a rare situation because you dont necessarily want to thin the field when you raise for value...you want callers and overcallers.

can you clarify?

Yeah it doesn't come up all that often. But sometimes when many people see the flop, you can pop in an extra raise with a nut flush draw and not lose anyone. An example would be if 5 people see a flop of Kxx (2 hearts) and you have Ahxh. If the action is: bet, call, call- go ahead and raise because most often no one is folding for one bet. Even if the original bettor 3-bets it, the two in between will often still call. Then you can go ahead and cap it

Don't automatically raise the draw though though, since you want as much money and as many people in the pot as possible. If the action goes: check, check, bet- you should probably just call your draw to induce other calls instead of folds. Although if you feel you have a good chance to get a free card by raising now, raising may be good as well.

[bigspenda73]

Wait, I thought you played by feel?

[sinky]

then how do i even guesstimate how much equity i have.

Your total equity is a combination of 3 factors....

1) What are the odds you are ahead and will win unimproved ?
2) What are the odds of drawing to the best hand ?
3) What are the odds that a bet/raise will get all your opponents to fold ?

Don't automatically raise the draw though though, since you want as much money and as many people in the pot as possible. If the action goes: check, check, bet- you should probably just call your draw to induce other calls instead of folds. Although if you feel you have a good chance to get a free card by raising now, raising may be good as well.

Another reason to raise a draw. In a large pot you should be trying to do everything you can to win the pot. So you may want to raise to "buy some outs", by getting a couple of opponents to fold. For example you have A5s and have flopped a flush draw. By raising you might get hands like AT to fold giving you potentially 2 more outs on the next street.

[Chopper]

Wait, I thought you played by feel?

good one.

in these forums, i can come off as a bit of a hippocrit or wishy-washy. i just wish we could have a phone conversation or home games...or some other ways to get to know each other. there just isnt enough space in a typed forum, imo, to get to know someone and become friends...therefore know where they are coming from. you just cant get tonality, facial expressions (emoticons dont count...lol), or any other clues as to HOW someone is saying the words they are typing.

i do play by feel, and dont deny that. but i am not a complete idiot. there are certain situations that math is required, or reads, or science. i understand that, too. i just seem to play better when i trust my instincts. so, i've learned to listen to the lights and sirens when they are going off.

even if the "science" tells you to raise, sometimes you just know your opponent isnt going anywhere...or still has you beat. and those are the times you are "playing by feel." raising anyway for the sake of the sweet science can be suicide. there is a happy medium to balancing both.

i am probably not being clear, still, but that was a good comment, spenda.

[jyms]

Wait, I thought you played by feel?

good one.

in these forums, i can come off as a bit of a hippocrit or wishy-washy. i just wish we could have a phone conversation or home games...or some other ways to get to know each other. there just isnt enough space in a typed forum, imo, to get to know someone and become friends

VENTRILLO!! get a mic and come join the fun.


I will say this since it's happened before. If your new to vent (anybody new, not just you chopper), don't just drop in a channel and start rifling off bad beats. We had someone pop into soupie and rizens channel before and start swearin and bitchin. There are serious poker players in there, not just us wanna be's, so respect their space. They don't mind you listening or joining the converstaion, but these guys are there for their livelyhood. Not to listen to some $10NL "my AA got cracked" crap.

[bigspenda73]

I tend to remember stuff like that.

instincts schminstincs as far as limt hold'em goes. It is pure and simple a math game. You take the play that has either:

a. the highest positive expectation
b. the lowest negative expectation

Sometimes your opponents play so well all you can do is make a -EV decision no matter what you choose. The key there is determining which -EV is lower and choosing that action.

[Chopper]

maybe someday i will come into line, but for now...

i'm too much a noob to believe limit is all math, and no instinct. i mean you have to set up your opponent sometimes. there has to be room to play.

i guarantee you i look back at this one day and say, "wow, was i ever a dumbass for saying that crap."

but whatever...lol.

[NWNewell]

It's not all math. You should rely on your instincts and gut to help you determine the variables in the math. Like what the other player(s) have any what their action means. You do need to let your instincts weigh in on your equity evaluation for things like fold equity, other players holdings, etc. I think you should listen to your instincts, but not necessarily let them control or completely dictate your actions. I usually let them help me with borderline decisions when I'm looking for a way to lean. I don't think my instincts are all that great, so I would rather stick to the correct mathematical decision any day. In limit it may not be as crucial as NL.

But I definitely think it is a little over rated at the lower limits. I mean, it is tough to figure out what the other player is doing when they don't even know what they are doing.


PS Just to clarify, and I'm sure you mean the same thing Chopper. When I'm talking about instincts and feel, it is a subconscious feeling about a play based on previous experience that lead me to a certain decision that I can not exactly put my finger on. I'm not talking about, "oh, I'm playing this 72o because can feel two 2's coming on the flop."

[bigspenda73]

i'm too much a noob to believe limit is all math, and no instinct. i mean you have to set up your opponent sometimes. there has to be room to play.

How do you set your opponent up in minbet hold'em? By the time you thought about getting tricky you cost yourself money by not getting more into the pot immediately.

We're flinging POO here boys and girls, we aren't painting the Mona Lisa. It doesn't have to be pretty, it doesn't have to be inventive. It just has to be correct.

[Chopper]

newell,

we are saying the same thing. except, the lower limits part. i personally think the lower stakes are underestimated these days. players are better...not good...just better than 2 years ago.

as a result, you do need to think more...and better. even at lower limits. players continue to think the players are complete idiots...and there are more of those here than anywhere else...but there are more "thinkers" trying to capitalize on them, too. its no shark tank, imo, just a bit underrated by players at 1/2+ and 50 NL+.

spenda, i say "set up" and mean that you play a bit loosey goosey at times...and show your cards. you dont take anything too far, but see a lot of flops down here, cheaply...and show some of your crap.

you also play like you have the draw..when you have TPTK (but can read the other guy has the draw). and you play your draws like TPTK, too. all of this on occasion. but in a session, you can do this 3-4 times easy. but SHOW your crap. not all of it, but just make sure you are letting the people at the table that have been there awhile know you are not exactly a "by the book" guy. it opens them up to you a bit...and if you correctly stay tightish...you get more action.

i will show a hand when i made a bluff. i will show a hand when the other guy is a nit. but i when i showdown a hand it is, 99% of the time, very strong.

setting them up is changing gears (with the plan to show it) for a hand or two...then switching right back to your comfort range...to me.

you'll say its overrated...and prolly so...but it keeps the bordom off, i believe it works...and again, someday i'll prolly say to stick to abc poker at the low stakes, too. just not right now...lol.

[NWNewell]

newell,

we are saying the same thing. except, the lower limits part. i personally think the lower stakes are underestimated these days.

I agree... my "not all math" comment was mostly in response to bigsplenda's comment.

And I agree.... lower limits are better than they use to be. They are not as loose/passive as they use to be. But there are usually very illogical plays, that are made, so putting them on hands based on there play is still pretty tough. That's all I meant.

[Chopper]

right on, brah

[littleogre]

Limit is not all math but you will be a failure if you constanstantly make mathmatically incorect decesions.

[bigspenda73]

Limit is all math. Every hand is an equation it's just that the better players include the correct variables while losing players do not.

[NWNewell]

splenda/litleogre,

I'm in 100% agreement.

But how do you com up with those "correct" variables?

For example:

You've only been at the table for about less than one orbit, and don't have much HH against the opponents.

You've got A Q in MP, with an EP limper. You raise PF and get a LP coldcaller, EP limper calls. Flop comes T J 8. How many outs do you think you have?

Say EP checks, you bet, LP raises, EP calls, you call. Flop comes a blank (4 ). Now how many outs do you think you have? Should you bet? Check/call?

How did you determine your outs? splenda, I know you play pretty well, so I'll go out on a limb and say that you will determine your outs based on what hands typical opponents might play this way preflop, and out of those hands, which of those hands might fit into this flop in a manner that would dictate this type of flop play.

For example, with LP coldcalling, he could have hit a pair and a draw or two pair, or possibly FCR the flush draw. Seems like EP could easily have a strong draw (straight or flush), or maybe a pair.

So even though you have two overs, a gutshot, and a back door nut flush draw, you are not going to give yourself credit for all those outs. How much should you discount them?

Unless, you actually work out the math and hand ranges, probabilities of holdings, and weighed against known player tendencies right there at the table, I imagine you are quickly (and often almost subconsciously) basing these decisions on your knowledge of the game, typical starting hand ranges, and previous experience, or cumulatively what I refer to as "instincts".

I think this is a case of "you say tomato, I say tamoto."

[Chopper]

there are the "instincts" to which i so commonly refer.

however, in my typing, i make you guys think i wave my hands over a crystal ball, throw some sage in a pot of water, and blink three times while turning around counter-clockwise.. i then yell, "oh, F*** it!!" and throw in a raise.

lol.

[NWNewell]

however, in my typing, i make you guys think i wave my hands over a crystal ball, throw some sage in a pot of water, and blink three times while turning around counter-clockwise.. i then yell, "oh, F*** it!!" and throw in a raise.

I wish that worked... I think it would be easier.

[|~|ypermegachi]

poker is math, period. it doesn't matter which form. limit tends to account for more variables on cards and position. NL tends to account for more variables on the player.

NWNewell, in your example. here's how i would count my outs:
3.0 for 9
3.5 for K
2 for Q
2 for A
= 10.5 outs.

i simply discounted some of my outs since if i hit it still might not be good. but the thing is, the pot is so big now that it's still correct to call down when you hit.

in a sense, in limit there are many cases where it's impossible to make your play opponents incorrectly. if the pot is 6bb on the flop, there is no way whatsoever for you to make a flush draw play incorrectly. in this case, if you have top pair you're simply playing by pot equity and pushing a very small edge. but in no way is either of you playing wrong. you are betting the better hand, the opponent is calling with great odds.

it's in this way that limit is more "card math" rather than NL where it's more "player math"

back to your example, i would not bet that turn. betting the flop is debatable too.

[bigspenda73]

On another note, are you intentionally calling me "splenda" instead of "spenda"?

[Chopper]

On another note, are you intentionally calling me "splenda" instead of "spenda"?

thats pretty funny. like the "artifical sweetner?"

it looks all nice and stuff, tastes kinda ok, but it aint the real thing!