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Silly String- Ok, I'm basically just gonna say ur being a nit. First of all, 20/18 is like std tag, with tag being anything from about 23 VPIP to 17 VPIP in general, so hes just about smack in the middle of std tag, with 18 pfr making him slightly more aggro than ur avg tag. Now, I run about 20/18 sometimes and when I am, a pretty standard raising range from the button is this: any suited connector, any suited one gapper 57 or higher, any pair, any two broadway cards, any ace and also some other random crap if the blinds play especially tight which may be the case with Da Goat idk.
On a 488 rainbow flop we are behind most his range and cant call a bet, but we do, with the intention of bluffing later and we get to the turn.
The turn is a queen, giving us TPGK which is COMPLETELY disguised and underrepped, is a scare card for our opponent to use and our opponent is capable/willing to make moves in position against a player he views to be weak. So Gin, basically.
We elect to check the turn and our opponent fires out 25 with a range which looks something like this:
value: AQ KQ QJ QT JJ TT 99 AA KK QQ 86 87 88 89 8T, A8
Bluffing/semibluffing: a percentage we will call X.
River: river is a blank ten which actually improves our range vs his probable value betting range. We check and he fires out a reasonably big bet of 60. We are representing exactly two hands here: a low to mid PP 22-99 (maybe A4s) or a weirdly slowplayed 8. Da Goat can tell us better from past history how likely he thinks it is that villain will put us on an 8, but my guess is he thinks we have an 8 less than 10% of the time from the way this hand was played. So note that our hand falls in the top 10% of the range of hands villain probably puts us on, and is still completely disguised. So villain value bets 60.
Thin Value that we beat: 55-JJ, JT, T9, AT, QJ, KQ (we tie obv),
Semi thin value we are behind: AQ, QT, KK, AA
Solid value we are behind: 44, 88, 87, 86, 89, 8T, A8, QQ, TT
We beat bluffs: again, we have to settle on a percentage X, that villain is bluffing and from this determine whether we can call.
Now I've laid out our line from a thinking, aggro 200nl villain's perspective and that it makes 90% of our range look like 22-99. Da Goat also thinks his image is slightly weak. As an aggressive villain do we think Da Goat can call 60 on the river with 22-99 now that two overs have fallen on the board? Probably not profitably. So does our 60 dollar river bet succeed often enough against this seemingly polarized range to have positive expectation? Most villains would thinks so and if I was villain I would probably triple barrel myself in this spot a reasonably high percentage of the time. I'll assign a bluffing percentage for our villain at between 25-75% as I think (and you can use Bayesian combos of hands to make this feel more concrete) soooo much of his range preflop is behind us and so few hands beat us and our line is so weak. So I think a call here by our KQ has solid positive expectation.
So Silly String, sorry for my last post, sometimes I abbreviate my answer to "I think villain is bluffing here a lot" because it seems apparent to me, but here is a basic thought process I go through every hand to determine bluffing frequencies and gauge the strength of my line against thinking players. Does this make sense?
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KQo 200NL Postflop play
, K
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, 8
(2 players)
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Originally Posted by cardsman1992
