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OK, I'm back. There are two reasons I like the river bet. The first is that I think you're usually ahead, and that you get called by worse hands often enough to make a bet +EV. This was already covered by sauce123 and Massimo.
The second reason is a metagame reason that no one has mentioned so far. Unless you can make thin value bets like this, you can't maintain an aggro image against decent players. A big river bet on this board is going to be interpreted as either a boat or a bluff. Problem is, it's easier for the hero to have a bluff than a boat. So if he's bluffing a lot of the times he has nothing, and only value-betting boats, a decent villain will insta-call the river here. But when the hero is capable of value-betting more hands, suddenly the villain can't profitably call with ace-high or 88 anymore, and that opens the door for the hero to bluff more often on the river in the future. Although metagame isn't a huge factor against an unknown opponent, I still think a nit is likely to put us on a boat or a bluff here, make a thin call, and lose. And even if he does fold, this hand is gonna help build up your image against this opponent.
One of my favorite posters on 2p2 was talking about this concept awhile ago and here's what he wrote.
We'll use this Strasser hand as an example. I dont' have the link, but he was playing Phil Ivey heads up 300/600 I think. Basically, the board came K Q 8 3 4 or something, and Strassa fired the river (I think he bet all three streets) with QJ. So, he had second pair second kicker, and he bet the river from position when he could have checked behind. Some people say "WTF awful," but they're basically wrong becuase Strassa is merging his range. In HU, ace high and small pairs are frequently the nuts. So basically, if Ivey thinks Strassa is bluffing (there was a whiffed straight and maybe flush draw out there), then Ivey will call with what he percieves to be all bluff catchers. Those hands are like 8x, pairs between 99-JJ, maybe AJ high, 55, or a bunch of random little pairs. Strassa's hand of 2P2K is ahead of what he percieves Ivey's range is to CC two streets- so he bets the river. In a vacuum, Ivey held Kx, for top pair no kicker, and he quickly called Strassa. So in this instance, it didn't work, he was value betting the worst hand, but part of merging your range is value betting the worst hand at times. Basically, when people get to the river, they're so happy to check behind hands like even top pair sometimes, and that is generally not good.
Your range looks like this |___________________| So, Most people will bet this much of their range |___ (check behind) _____| That is, they will bet the worst 10% of their hands (missed draws, with NO showdown value) and the best 15% (top pair top kicker, two pairs, trips, etc.) Now, if people percieve you as a bluffer (in a sense, everyone wants to have an aggressive image, people always think I'm bluffing) then you want to merge your range so that you are betting MUCH more of your made hands (like second pair, soemtimes, or the bad end of a straight when people assume you'll only bet the nuts or air becuase it's a good board to bluff at) So, you want your range of hands to bet to look like this |_____ (check behind) __________| If I'm betting more of the hands at the top end of my spectrum (range) then I'm making people's decisions on the river MUCH more difficult.
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I make another *interesting* play.
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Originally Posted by sauce123
