Gutshots -- how I play them

[bbqsquirrel]

After seeing the topic, many people might ask WTF -- why is this even a topic?

"Knowledgable players" laugh at those who chase gutshots, but IMO gutshots are a very underrated weapon. Gutshots are difficult to hit (1 in 12), but because they are deceptive they generally have huge implied odds.

I will usually chase a gutshot if I believe can win >12 times that I have to wager, which means usually against multiple deep stacks for a reasonable prize on the flop only. If I don't turn it then I get away (unless I pick up extra outs), because by that time the implied odds would be much smaller compared the size of the bet that I have to call.

Also some gutshots are chasable while others should be dumped without a second thought. IMO gutshots that could form (dominating) nuts are chasable. To generalize, think about who's going to pay off your gutshot. Don't include TP-type hands unless against really bad opponents. Any decent player who has TP and bets $0.75 into a $1 dollar pot probably won't invest another $9 unimproved. Usually it will be lower straights and sets who stack off (and remember that sets have 10 outs on the turn so multiply your implied odds by ~80% or make sure he has behind ~14 or 15 times the amount that you have to call).

Examples of gutshots that have overcard outs / can form dominating winners

Q9 board T82 (dominating 97 if it hits)
QT board 982 (dominating T7)
QJ board K96 (dominating 87)
QT board J85 (dominating 76)
Q9 board J85 (dominating 97)
QT board K97 (dominating T8)

Examples of high implied-odds gutshot:
JT board 875 / 876 / 975 / 976

Some of my successful experiences with straight draws:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?842244
Here I played passively -- not c-betting after I raised preflop, and sure enough someone liked the 6 and paid me off fully.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?821668
Multiway pot, gutshot + 2 overs, and my call will certainly encourage callers from behind.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?776622
I'm looking to call $1.25 to win potentially $50 combined from the two other big-stacks. I turned the gutshot, lost one player and the other guy got all-in with his set for $30. I was outdrawn, but that wasn't the point. At this stage he was drawing to 9 outs meaning my pot equity here is $30 * 36/45 = $24. This is much higher than the $7.4 (12 * $1.25 minus $7.6 already in the pot) that I need to win in order to make it a profitable gutshot chase.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?765990
Successful straight draw against some passive retard.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?717595
Another successful and profitable gutshot chase. Somebody flopped 2 pairs J7 and bet too feebly.

[Pelion]

Again I think this has alot to do with who you are playing against. I chase gutshots against people who will pay me off and i raise them (but not too often) against people who will fold without hands that will pay me off.
Calling against people who will get away when you hit, with no intention to steal the pot sucks and is overused imo.

[Tjorriemorrie]

That's some nice games.

@Pelion, how do you id which ones will pay you off?