Overbet vs Valuebe

[superfish]

Ok... lets say we flop the nuts (or substantially stronger than your op)

do you usually overbet (allin?) or valuebet (hoping that a weaker hand will just pay you off?)

does that depend on which street? what about on the river?

does that depend on position? how many players?

I think a big leak in my game is I don't get enough value out of my nuts, because I'm speculating that my op's hand is not nearly 2nd nuts and won't pay me off unless I bet a reasonable amount.

Thoughts?

[dpe8598]

Ok... lets say we flop the nuts (or substantially stronger than your op)

do you usually overbet (allin?) or valuebet (hoping that a weaker hand will just pay you off?)

does that depend on which street? what about on the river?

does that depend on position? how many players?

I think a big leak in my game is I don't get enough value out of my nuts, because I'm speculating that my op's hand is not nearly 2nd nuts and won't pay me off unless I bet a reasonable amount.

Thoughts?

I usually bet whatever I think they will call about 80% of the time. This usually means between 3/4 to just over the pot. I mix in about 20% of way overbetting the pot. I'm more likely to overbet against callingstations of course and less likely against mouses.

[martindcx1e]

I'm more likely to overbet against callingstations of course and less likely against mouses.

mouses?

[jyms]

mouses?

It's Loose passive, an Icon in PT. As for the original question, it'll depend ( i know) on the opponenet, not the hand that is flopped. Weak tights and good players will not follow with draws even if you value bet. calling stations and showdown muppets will call no matter what as long as there aren't 2 aces on board or an obvious flush or straight draw.

[martindcx1e]

mouses?

It's Loose passive, an Icon in PT. As for the original question, it'll depend ( i know) on the opponenet, not the hand that is flopped. Weak tights and good players will not follow with draws even if you value bet. calling stations and showdown muppets will call no matter what as long as there aren't 2 aces on board or an obvious flush or straight draw.

mice...

[jyms]

oops sorry, I didn't see who asked the question. I'm used to your ray finkle and rhino pic. I just "assumed" someone didn't know. I've kind of given up on the grammer situation here and on the net in particular.

[martindcx1e]

oops sorry, I didn't see who asked the question. I'm used to your ray finkle and rhino pic. I just "assumed" someone didn't know. I've kind of given up on the grammer situation here and on the net in particular.

lol maybe i should bring ace back...

[jyms]

Or change your Sig.

[martindcx1e]

Or change your Sig.

doesn't the sig tell you it's me?

[Tjorriemorrie]

Can you bet more if it's a multiway pot?

[martindcx1e]

Can you bet more if it's a multiway pot?

i think a lot of people are more likely to pot flops with strong but vulnerable hands if the pot is multiway. there's usually not a good reason to bet more than the pot (or to even bet the pot).

[sejje]

I'm more likely to overbet against callingstations of course and less likely against mouses.

mouses?

Meece.

[dpe8598]

I'm more likely to overbet against callingstations of course and less likely against mouses.

mouses?

Meece.

MOUSIES!

[Chopper]

my opinion...

just make it consistent. if you want to bet 3/4, bet 3/4 no matter what you hit. if you want to overbet, then overbet whether you flop TP or a flush.

you start mixing up your bet sizes, and you can give off the relative strength of your hand...thereby making your nuts less likely to get paid off, or sucked out on...you be the judge of which you want to see happen.

if you flop quads...thats when you start to slow play...at the lower stakes, of course.

[dpe8598]

my opinion...

just make it consistent. if you want to bet 3/4, bet 3/4 no matter what you hit. if you want to overbet, then overbet whether you flop TP or a flush.

you start mixing up your bet sizes, and you can give off the relative strength of your hand...thereby making your nuts less likely to get paid off, or sucked out on...you be the judge of which you want to see happen.

if you flop quads...thats when you start to slow play...at the lower stakes, of course.

This is good advice against regulars.

[salsa4ever]

my opinion...

just make it consistent. if you want to bet 3/4, bet 3/4 no matter what you hit. if you want to overbet, then overbet whether you flop TP or a flush.

you start mixing up your bet sizes, and you can give off the relative strength of your hand...thereby making your nuts less likely to get paid off, or sucked out on...you be the judge of which you want to see happen.

if you flop quads...thats when you start to slow play...at the lower stakes, of course.

it's that just me or does it sound rather wrong?

being "unpredictable" by always doing one thing no matter what is an inefficient way to be unpredictable. What you need to do is to mix up what you do with what. As in sometimes you raise big with a draw, sometimes with a set, sometimes bet small with a huge hand, sometimes bet small with total air...

related example. If you always cont bet then i'm gonna raise you lots. if you only bet with TPTK+ then I'm only calling/raising you with 2 pair and bet anything you check. So a strategy of "always bet 3/4 on the flop after PFR with set or air or one pair" is not a good one. The trick is to sometimes bet with missed overs, sometimes check with a big hand (AA on a Axx flop), but you know that already

[Chopper]

i think you guys just took me too literally...

all i am saying is to a possible "beginning" player (only 9 posts and asking these types of questions) that to be mixing up your "specific" bets can get you into trouble.

i did not tell him/her when to bet or to NEVER bet when missing the flop w/ AJo... i said IF you decide to bet, make it the same amount.

if i bet out, and you raise me back...once in awhile i will RR you back...perhaps i have nothing, perhaps i have the hand i represent...you dont know either, and you will most likely drop your hand at that point, too. but this is a whole different topic than what was asked.

in general, WHEN NEW TO THE GAME, dont vary your bet sizes! if you raise pf, raise "with the same pattern (ie. 3x + 1x for every limper in front of you). if you bet post-flop, bet the same amount whether it is a draw or a set or a complete miss...it doesnt matter. IF YOU BET, BET THE SAME...IN THE BEGINNING.

once you play quite a few hands (3000 -10000) at any given game/level, then you will NATURALLY start to "change your betting patterns/sizes." you will develop a "feel" for how much to bet or check your AA or raise or c/r or push all-in.

when i "broke in" to the game of NL, i played my first 25k hands this way and carried a win rate of 7BB/100. not professional material for sure, but not a losing style BY FAR either. i think most "beginners" would be VERY happy with a win rate close to that one over their first 25k hands...

could be just me...

[superfish]

^^ Re: 9 post comment... I've been floating around this forum for a long time... just recently started posting...

Either way... I don't think I want to vary my style with stakes... I play anywhere from 2/4 to 5/10...

And yes I understand against calling stations I'm going to bet more... but I want to find an optimal strategy... when I have a strong hand... against all sort of players

I've watched plenty 5/10 players and 10/20 players mixing up their plays... like allin when 3 flush cards to the board or just allin on the river... sometimes with moderate holdings and sometimes with monsters

I guess what I'm asking is kind of ridiculous considering it's a dynamic game... and there might never be a best answer... just wanted to hear somet thoughts

[Chopper]

see how a horrible "read" can lead you down the wrong path?

the only info i had to go on was "9 posts." so, i made a guess...and clearly was wrong..about the stakes (5/10) and the experience.

sometimes its hard to get this gol' darned foot outta my mouth...lol.

[Tjorriemorrie]

my opinion...

just make it consistent. if you want to bet 3/4, bet 3/4 no matter what you hit. if you want to overbet, then overbet whether you flop TP or a flush.

you start mixing up your bet sizes, and you can give off the relative strength of your hand...thereby making your nuts less likely to get paid off, or sucked out on...you be the judge of which you want to see happen.

if you flop quads...thats when you start to slow play...at the lower stakes, of course. :cool:

Last night I watched Chris Ferguson on Poker Night Live. He said exactly the same thing. But I think he meant more over the long term. He said that the variety with betting mostly the same, is that it comes in with you do that on all the hands you play. So the opponent wouldn't know if you have a strong hand or a weak hand, since your bet is mostly the same.

But salsa4ever also makes a good argument.

Moral of the story: this is how you confuse a noob, LOL :)

@chopper, no, it's not just you. my BB/100 is -7 i think on micro limit tables. :( :( But at least my last half of my hands is much more profitable than the first half!

[salsa4ever]

my opinion...

just make it consistent. if you want to bet 3/4, bet 3/4 no matter what you hit. if you want to overbet, then overbet whether you flop TP or a flush.

you start mixing up your bet sizes, and you can give off the relative strength of your hand...thereby making your nuts less likely to get paid off, or sucked out on...you be the judge of which you want to see happen.

if you flop quads...thats when you start to slow play...at the lower stakes, of course.

Last night I watched Chris Ferguson on Poker Night Live. He said exactly the same thing. But I think he meant more over the long term. He said that the variety with betting mostly the same, is that it comes in with you do that on all the hands you play. So the opponent wouldn't know if you have a strong hand or a weak hand, since your bet is mostly the same.

But salsa4ever also makes a good argument.

Moral of the story: this is how you confuse a noob, LOL

@chopper, no, it's not just you. my BB/100 is -7 i think on micro limit tables. But at least my last half of my hands is much more profitable than the first half!

I guess my point, and i realized i didn't make it well at all, is that betting X/Y pot IS going to make you unpredictable based on bet size.

The problem is you reduce your armory of weapons. It's like people who follow a set routine when they dance... yeah they can always do it but they lose the ability to interpret the music and express themselves.

Sometimes you get a situation where you don't really want to commit 3/4 pot with a marginal hand but if you bet 1/4 pot you can represent something huge like aces. But if you're playing in a game where you need to be unpredictable (about 10% of online games) then you'll have to bet small with a huge hand like trips on a draw safe board a small percentage of the time.

Therefore, to retain all the weapons in your arsenal and still be unpredictable you just mix it up

[Chopper]

i agree to some degree. i didnt say I always bet the same size, either. but remember, this was a "nwebie" question.

the new guy needs to take a couple of variables out of his game while he plays the donkeys at lower stakes. the new guy should focus on one strategy at a time, until he has a little confidence in said strategy.

of course, you should "mix up" your bet sizes to remain unpredictable. betting small. or better yet, checking your AA post flop to induce a bluff can be a great "move" when used in the right places. however, i dont expect the newer player to understand when is the right time to "mix it up." most of the experienced players realize how big a gamble slow-playing AA post flop is, too.

all i said was when you are new, keep the goofy stuff off the table until you understand when and why you need to do something goofy.

[djzcko]

I generally keep my bets the same whether I hit the flop or not against unknowns. Every once in a while I will bet the flop very weak to induce a raise with a flopped monster or I will overbet a monster also to make it look like a bluff/draw. Both work well--you just need to understand your opponent. Weak betting works very well against agressive opponents and overbetting works well against the average donk.