Odds of making set with pocket pair

[sarbox68]

Okay... so I read that the odds of flopping a set if you have pocket pairs is 1 in 8. (Maybe not the exact number, but that's not entirely relevant to the question...)

So I use Sklansky's starting hands chart from SSHE exclusively. I also have a cold call percentage of somewhere around never... (<.1%) Based on this, I'll limp in with 88 or less wherever possible and appropriate for position.

However, about 60% of the time I have 88 or less, I'm facing a PF raiser -- and since I won't cold call these and they're not strong enough to raise with, I fold.

So how is the 1 in 8 math affected by this reality? Murphy's law, it always seems to be the pockets I fold to a PFR that hit the set on the flop. So is it really 1 in 8, or more like 1 in 11+ because I have to factor in the ones that I fold before the flop?

This seems like a valid question to me as it changes the expected value of limping in with pockets over the long term.

Question two.... About 40% of the times that I limp in with 88 or less, I get raised. I don't really want to play these for 2 SB, but am already in so call the raise. Is this a leak as I am only playing these for the odds of hitting the set?

[Iwind]

limit play? I don't do limit, but it's like 1 in 7, and it's pretty relevant

[Jager]

The odds of hitting a set are 12.5% or 1 in7.
If you are playing NL you should not only be calling with all PP, but you should consider raising with them.

[sarbox68]

Sorry... should have clarified. This is a Limit question. Plus my question isn't really whether the 1 in 7 is relevant... I know that it is. The question is whether 1 in 7 takes into account the PPs you fold because of PFRs.

Maybe I'm just overthinking this... But say I get dealt 7 pocket pairs, but fold 4 of them because of PFRs. Does the set that hit on the flop from the PP I folded count as the statistically expected set... which means I'm going to have to GET significantly more than 7 PP for each flop set I hit. Or can I use the 1 in 7 to figure the EV for the 7 I play -- and just ignore the ones I fold as if they never happened...

Seems to me this would impact the value of limping in with low pockets that have little to no value beyond set potential...

[Jager]

It does't matter whether you fold it or not.
You will hit 1 in7 sets on the hands you see the flop and 1 in 7 out of the hands you and 1 in 7 out of all hands and 1 in 7 out of the hands you play while drunk and 1 in 7 out of the hands you play whenever.

[sarbox68]

So...... what you're saying is.........

Thanks for pulling my head out of my ass. Didn't seem like such a stupid question at the time...

[Sprayed]

In limit or NL, I will generally call a raise with any pp from any position because of the implied odds. In NL, generally if they are raising less than 10% of my stack I will call. However, if my opponent doesn't have enough behind to pay me off I will fold.

[swiggidy]

Just for fun (LC)...

The chance that you actually hit a set 1 time out of the 7 times you are dealt pp

12.5% * (1 - 12.5%) ^ 6 = 5.6%

So if you get dealt pp 7 times in a row. There is only a 5% chance that you hit a set exactly one time.

If I had a point I forgot what it was.

[Iwind]

Good to know if you're gonna make a prop bet on this one, apart from the calculations being wrong You got the probability of hitting a set on your first pp and miss on the last 6 ones though.

[swiggidy]

Damnit, you're right. It's 7 * 5.6% = 39.3%

This is a far less interesting result

[Iwind]

Yeah, I'd be much happier if you could calculate the chances that I will double up when I flop a set. I think it's less than 50% but I'm not sure, might be a function of many variables.

[Monty9]

I think your mistaken about Sklansky and what he means by "cold calling"

By definition ( in his glossary) a "cold call" is calling 2 bets back to you.

Calling 1 bet back is not cold calling and he does recommend it for the implied odds of hitting a set.

The key to playing these small PP is to play them late where there is less people to act behind you. And in late enough positon Raise them yourself.

Remember too that small PP play better in big multiway pots so calling one bet back to you is not so bad cause when you hit you should hit BIG.

If I am mistaken someone please correct me.

[Anosmic]

I think your mistaken about Sklansky and what he means by "cold calling"

By definition ( in his glossary) a "cold call" is calling 2 bets back to you.

Calling 1 bet back is not cold calling and he does recommend it for the implied odds of hitting a set.

The key to playing these small PP is to play them late where there is less people to act behind you. And in late enough positon Raise them yourself.

Remember too that small PP play better in big multiway pots so calling one bet back to you is not so bad cause when you hit you should hit BIG.

If I am mistaken someone please correct me.

You're mistaken

Nah, OP talked about a pf raise, which means of course it's two bets (BB+bet) which you are calling cold.

Which PP you play where is determined by the table style. But full-ring at a reasonably tight table you're going to want to junk 22-66 early position regardless and even in late position after a raise.

Cold-calling is not recommend with any PPs. So TT+ it's re-raise, 66- it's fold and 77-99 fold or re-raise depending on the table, position, reads etc

Maybe in late postion if 3-4 people have already called the raise then it can be worth a call. Otherwise I think it's a fairly bad idea..

[jyms]

Your talking about limit Anosmic?? Because I always thought that the 15x rule was the no limit standard we had discussed pretty thoroughly already. If your opponent has 15x his raise in his stack you call.

OP, am I to understand that you wont call a raise from a preflop raiser with position, but if you limp and are raised, out of position, you will call because you already have money in?? This is hard for me to understand, is there a reason? I don't play limit but would like to know incase I do.

[sarbox68]

This is a Limit question...

Trainer - I think what you're saying I was asking was what I was asking.

I play my starting hands by the book (SSHE)... not very creative, but it helps my noobieness. So...

EP R,RR AA-TT, Fold everything else
MP R AA-99, RR AA-TT, CAP AA-QQ, Limp for 1SB 22-99, Fold everything else
LP Same R,RR,CAP as above. If Raiser + 2 callers in, will cold call any PP. On the Bu w/ 4 callers may R small PP 50% of the time
sB R AA-99, RR AA-TT, Limp for 1 SB 22-99, Fold everything else
BB R,RR same as sB. Call 1SB raise for any pocket

My question was, when I limp in with < 99 pocket (88, 44 etc.) and then get raised to my left (LP bettor or blind), what do I do? Right now, I've been calling IF I can do it for 1 SB. If it's 3-betted by the time it gets back to me, I'll fold.

Should I be calling these 1SB raises with money in the pot? I'd rather not play 33 for 2 bets, but I figure once I'm already in, it's the better of two evils.

I've also been trying to consider how many people are in the pot, as I realize the whole point of calling 88 or lower is really to flop a set. If it's raised back to me and there are 3 or less opps left in the hand, I may tend to fold based on odds.

[Monty9]

I think everybodys got it but not describing it well.

NO... don't cold call ( two bets ) in front of you.

YES... call one bet back to you after you have limped.

NO... don't cold call two bets back to you after you have limped ( raise & re-raiseed ).

NO don't play them in EP.

The main idea here is to flop a set and a set only. your really not planing to take down the pot if it goes to showdown unimproved. So position does'nt matter as much if you do flop your set, if you miss your not getting into a position war OOP, you are going to fold.

[Xanadu]

I don't think you've read SSHE very closely if you are considering limping and folding for 1 more bet. It is almost always an error to fold for 1 SB if you have a hand worth limping in the first place. If you want an example where it is not an error ... suppose you limp UTG with 55 all fold to the SB who calls and the BB raises. There is the occassional odd sort of maniac that always 3-bets when they limp and someone else raises. If the SB is such a player, you should fold, especially if the BB is a good observant player (he is planning on capping the 3-bet). You would normally be getting 5:1 on your call, but knowing the SB will 3-bet cuts the odds down to 3.5:1 at best.

Even in a case where you know you are hopelessly behind preflop, you still would want to call the bet back to you. Suppose you are UTG again and limp 55 and everyone folds to the BB who raises. Even if you know with certainty that BB is such a nit that he never ever raises without KK or AA, you still have odds to call. You should get at least 7 more SB if you hit your set, plus the 3 in the pot already. Your implied odds are 10:1 on a 7:1 shot.

As for cold calling pps, there is really no solid rule for it because different tables play, well, differently. There are some tables where cold calling a small pair in EP is reasonable because you can expect half the players to your left to cold call and not raise and call lots of bets on later streets. There are also tables that after an early position raise and 3 cold callers you would fold a small pocket pair on the button because you know the players in the pot give very little action post-flop without a big hand and you just can't expect to win a big enough pot to justify the call. In general, you want to estimate a typical pot size at your table for the action so far in the hand. Your break even point with a small pair is when you expect the pot at showdown to be about 10x what you expect to invest to play the hand. Usually this means cold-calling after a raise and 2 cold calls in front of you. It is very rarely correct to fold after a raise and 3 cold calls. It is sometimes correct to cold call after only one other cold call, and although rare, it is possible to be correct to be the first cold caller. The key here is to know your table.

[Miffed22001]

Ill throw a spanner in the works.

Ive multi tabled 3/6 5/10 fr limit holdem, and i muck all pps i cant 3bet with in position or in blind defence or open the pot for a raise with to steal blinds or that have the ev to play in ep for example.
FWIW,
5/10 winrate calling raises with pps = 0.67/100 (fair sample)
5/10 winrate playing as noted above = 1.02/100 (fair sample size)
(0.3bbs/100 over 50k hands at those stakes=150bbs or $1500, considering i expect to profit 5k over that same period, its a fair amount.
Thoughts and opinions?

Also, FWIW i think folding more hands to raises where you get multiple players involved in the pot has more of an effect on your winrate than flopping sets does.
I actually like to see people calling one bet with a pp to flop a set, especially where the pot is HU or 3handed.
I compensate for folding pps by trying to be extra aggressive with blind steals and blind defence where i feel i can exploit a larger edge i feel i have postflop.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Flopping a set:

ILikeAces82 : 36.74%
Renton: 2.16%
The rest of us: 12.5%

[Renton]

Flopping a royal flush

Cocco_Bill : 12.5%

[mcatdog]

Ive multi tabled 3/6 5/10 fr limit holdem, and i muck all pps i cant 3bet with in position or in blind defence or open the pot for a raise with to steal blinds or that have the ev to play in ep for example.
FWIW,
5/10 winrate calling raises with pps = 0.67/100 (fair sample)
5/10 winrate playing as noted above = 1.02/100 (fair sample size)
(0.3bbs/100 over 50k hands at those stakes=150bbs or $1500, considering i expect to profit 5k over that same period, its a fair amount.
Thoughts and opinions?

I think there is some merit to what you are saying, but don't use the word "all." If a nit with 4% raise percentage raises in EP, doing anything other than calling with your pair is retarded. That being said, if a good player raises in late position, and you're in the blinds with a small pair, it's usually a fold for me. You don't have the implied odds that you think you have. If I do play the hand, I'm 3-betting it and that's something I'll do only occasionally to mix up my play.

[mcatdog]

Flopping a royal flush

Cocco_Bill : 12.5%

HYACHACHACHACH

I was going to post that and you beat me to it by 1 minute.

[Miffed22001]

Flopping a royal flush

Cocco_Bill : 12.5%

HYACHACHACHACH

I was going to post that and you beat me to it by 1 minute.

hold on, ive had 6 in the last 6weeks, after having none for 18months

[Anosmic]

This is a Limit question...

Trainer - I think what you're saying I was asking was what I was asking.

I play my starting hands by the book (SSHE)... not very creative, but it helps my noobieness. So...
...
My question was, when I limp in with < 99 pocket (88, 44 etc.) and then get raised to my left (LP bettor or blind), what do I do? Right now, I've been calling IF I can do it for 1 SB. If it's 3-betted by the time it gets back to me, I'll fold.

Should I be calling these 1SB raises with money in the pot? I'd rather not play 33 for 2 bets, but I figure once I'm already in, it's the better of two evils.

"So far, the guidelines for playing in raised pots apply only when the raise occurs before you act. If someone raises afterwards, call with any hand if it is one bet back to you." SSHE p.86

If you're gonna play by the book, play by the whole book

Raises will do one or both of two things: (i) generate a bigger pot enticing more players to get greedy and stay in too long (ii) thin the field which means your expectation goes up (bascially anyone who calls for one and folds for two has "donated" a percentage of an SB to every player remaining in the hand).

I've also been trying to consider how many people are in the pot, as I realize the whole point of calling 88 or lower is really to flop a set. If it's raised back to me and there are 3 or less opps left in the hand, I may tend to fold based on odds.

Lots of players give you a good chance of action, but one player betting a good hand will also do the same.
Remember you still have a % expectation on that pot.

But that aside say three guys limp in before you and you limp (pot is 5.5sb) it's raised, all fold back to you (7.5sb) you're getting 7.5:1. You'd seriously fold this? When you've got got 8:1 chance of flopping the set?

[Margin Of Error]

Ive multi tabled 3/6 5/10 fr limit holdem, and i muck all pps i cant 3bet with in position or in blind defence or open the pot for a raise with to steal blinds or that have the ev to play in ep for example.
FWIW,
5/10 winrate calling raises with pps = 0.67/100 (fair sample)
5/10 winrate playing as noted above = 1.02/100 (fair sample size)
(0.3bbs/100 over 50k hands at those stakes=150bbs or $1500, considering i expect to profit 5k over that same period, its a fair amount.
Thoughts and opinions?

I think there is some merit to what you are saying, but don't use the word "all." If a nit with 4% raise percentage raises in EP, doing anything other than calling with your pair is retarded. That being said, if a good player raises in late position, and you're in the blinds with a small pair, it's usually a fold for me. You don't have the implied odds that you think you have. If I do play the hand, I'm 3-betting it and that's something I'll do only occasionally to mix up my play.

You dont like hitting sets vs good players?

[mcatdog]

You dont like hitting sets vs good players?

It looks pretty, but it's overrated. I'd much rather hit a set vs a bad player who I know will pay me off. All those preflop calls with small pairs are expensive and when you do hit your set vs a good player, you probably won't win a big enough pot to compensate. He is capable of folding whatever he has (which often isn't much) to your set and you won't win that big of a pot when you do hit.

In other words, set miners get owned by good players most of the time. 7 times out of 8 the set miner check-folds the flop, and 1 time out of 8 he check-raises, the good player knows to get the hell out of Dodge, and the set miner wins a tiny pot.

The better of an opponent you're facing, the less important your cards become IMO.

[Miffed22001]

You dont like hitting sets vs good players?

It looks pretty, but it's overrated. I'd much rather hit a set vs a bad player who I know will pay me off. All those preflop calls with small pairs are expensive and when you do hit your set vs a good player, you probably won't win a big enough pot to compensate. He is capable of folding whatever he has (which often isn't much) to your set and you won't win that big of a pot when you do hit.

In other words, set miners get owned by good players most of the time. 7 times out of 8 the set miner check-folds the flop, and 1 time out of 8 he check-raises, the good player knows to get the hell out of Dodge, and the set miner wins a tiny pot.

The better of an opponent you're facing, the less important your cards become IMO.

This is pretty close to my thoughts.
FWIW, if i get c/r'ed on a flop of rags or on a non dangerous flop with an overpair, i call that bet and then call down to showdown (the sole reason why renton hates limit) and all it costs me is two bets. So at worst i lose 3 bets total, or something similar.
When my opp calls 6-7 times preflop to flop a set and folds otherwise he/she obviously cant find that defecit in one pot if i go into call down mode for 1 bet per street. So set farming is very overrated.
Of course their is the 77 vs AK arguement, that calling a raise in limit with 77 is +ev because you have a slight advantage over big cards. The problem then is that good players two barrel the turn with unimproved overs, or 3bet a turn raise and rep an overpair, hence can you really then still call down with 77 when you my be no good unimproved on a rag board facing a turn 3bet from a pfr'er?
Good players make more bbs/100 by playing big cards well against people who want to play mid pp's. Whereas even a good player will struggle to close the pp vs overs/bigger pp defecit without either 3 betting preflop or being an excellent hand reader. Thats why i mentioned i probably 3 bet 88+ in position against a typical player, as it both reps a big hand and allows me to control pot size and showdown. I may be putting more money in the pot behind at times, but my play plus the knowledge i have of other peoples expected ranges allows me to make the most from this situation. By example, almost everyone will cap with AA preflop facing a 3bet, not many will cap AQo or AJs, giving me an idea of range.
The whole point being then that whereas you have implied odds in NL to call with small pairs, pretty much no implied odds exist in HU or shorthanded situations in limit holdem. Ofc, when 3 people limp infront of me, no way am i folding my pp, even 22, but overall i agree set farming in limit is -ev unless you are sat at some great tables, and that IMO is very rare.
Even half decent players can get paid playing a 12/10 game like i do if they offer a bluff here and their with overs and not an overpair to players capable of making a fold.

[Lukie]

just an fyi to throw out there, cold-calling isn't just calling a raise, it's calling 2 raises cold (ie somebody raises preflop, someone else 3-bets, then you call with nothing in the pot).

[Renton]

thats in limit

in no limit coldcalling is calling the first raise

i think what you are talking about lukie, is overcalling

[Anosmic]

just an fyi to throw out there, cold-calling isn't just calling a raise, it's calling 2 raises cold (ie somebody raises preflop, someone else 3-bets, then you call with nothing in the pot).

That's not what the Cold Call stats numbers in PT refer to. If you check the "cold called" filter in PT you'll see it includes any hand where it was raised by a player and you called (effectively the BB (which raises the SB if you like)+raise).

BTW, I asked this question in the limit forum recently because people seem to be less than unanimous:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-44594.htm