QQ Set play

[Silly String]

Is this AK often enough to call the river all-in or is he holding JT? Villain is 37/13, kinda passive. He hadn't played a big pot yet. I can't tell if the smooth call on the turn is AK or JT? Did I fold away too much value?

Hold'em NL ($0.25/$0.50)
Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 1: HERO ($88.10 in chips)
Seat 2: Reels ($65.58 in chips)
Seat 3: jimthekid ($39.22 in chips)
Seat 4: SonOfEvil ($43.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Thekin001 ($113.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Bru110333 ($9.50 in chips)
SonOfEvil: posts small blind $0.25
Thekin001: posts big blind $0.50
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO [Qc Qh]
Bru110333: folds
Vault: raises to $2.50
Reels: calls $2.50
jimthekid: folds
SonOfEvil: folds
Thekin001: calls $2
----- FLOP ----- [Qs 3c Kd]
Thekin001: checks
HERO: bets $7
Reels: calls $7
Thekin001: folds
----- TURN ----- [Qs 3c Kd][9s]
HERO: bets $20
Reels: calls $20
----- RIVER ----- [Qs 3c Kd 9s][Ac]
HERO: checks
Reels: bets $36.08 and is all-in
HERO: folds

[IowaSkinsFan]

you can't fold there.

[Drewbie]

----- FLOP ----- [Qs 3c Kd]
Thekin001: checks
HERO: bets $7
Reels: calls $7

I dont he is calling this bet with OESD.
Call and stack him.

[andy-akb]

Why do you think the only options here are AK or JT? As played Im pushing that river, it isnt really a scare card for you, more likely it is scary for your opponent. I think he could easily have a hand like AK, KQ or even KJ and against an opponent that loose I am not laying down a set on a board like this.

[Silly String]

Damn. I wanted to get your opinions. It seemed like the right lay down at the time, but when I went back and read it after I knew I screwed this up. I had to post to find out. Shaite!! I wasted a huge amount of EV there. That is like 90BB I left there, argh!!

[gabe]

dont fold sets

[Numbr2intheWorld]

don't fold sets in 6 max ever!

[DaNutsInYoEye]

are you fucking kidding me?

[IowaSkinsFan]

are you fucking kidding me?

potd!!

[Silly String]

----- FLOP ----- [Qs 3c Kd]
Thekin001: checks
HERO: bets $7
Reels: calls $7

I dont he is calling this bet with OESD.
Call and stack him.

I completely disagree. When stacks are this deep, it is not wrong to call a PSB with a OESD.

[The Izebox]

J10 is just one of several hands that can make this play. While you are going to see j ten turned over a good amount of the time theres no way you fold this on the river getting +3-1 on the pot. You may have folded the second best hand, but it still is a bad fold.

[Silly String]

AGREED!!
Do you think a blocking/value bet on the river would have been appropriate. Say $20? Or just check and hope for a check behind.

[elipsesjeff]

I'd bet enough that he'll call with a worse hand with, while still incorporating value. I think a push by him here is optimal. Betting enough to give yourself odds when/if he does go allin is a plus too.

No way am I ever folding.

[gabe]

AGREED!!
Do you think a blocking/value bet on the river would have been appropriate. Say $20? Or just check and hope for a check behind.

i would just push the river myself

[thnwkd]

if you were afraid of JT, you shouldve chkd the turn. yes? since you say hes passive i would be more afraid of AA/KK. probably a good lay for the wrong reasons.

[Silly String]

I think 37/13 is active enough before the flop to reraise AA/KK. He is passive post-flop, but not terribly passive pre-flop with 13% PFR.
I go broke to AA or KK here, I was worried about JT. After looking back he probably has JT or AK. I just didn't read the AK possibility, so it was a bad fold.