10/20 6 max blind question

[elipsesjeff]

Two scenarios:

First:

You've got KQo in the Small blind and a 40/20 raises and a 60/30% VPIPer cold calls and there you are. What is your play? Call, raise, or fold?

Second:

You've got KQo in the BB, a TAG raises and a 60/20 reraises. What is your play? Call, raise or fold?

[midas06]

What are villains' respective positions?

[elipsesjeff]

Well, lets say that its not possible its a CO steal but the other positions are not as pertinent.

[midas06]

Wouldn't it make a difference if the TAG raised UTG than from MP?

[elipsesjeff]

Wouldn't it make a difference if the TAG raised UTG than from MP?

I'm trying to downgrade that importance , otherwise there would be 6 different scenarios. Most tags raise about 1-2 less hands UTG than they would raise UTG+1 and so on but unless they are trying for a steal they'll open for still a wide range of holdings that that 1-2 less hands will (hopefully) have such a large affect in our decision.

[Miffed22001]

1 is horrible.
Either fold or 3 bet i think, but im not sure. I hate taking the 5:1 here with a decent, but unsooted hand, that will encourage the bb to call with any two. I probably dominate both players ranges here as well.
2.
I personaly dont cold call 2bets cold oop with unsooted cards. So easy fold. Id go HU here but not three handed. Saying that its a conservative line against likely holdings but i hate being oop more than i hate crappy cards.

bleh, fold both? In both instances if you call and hit tp say, opps can call with any part of the flop through two streets i think with anything. Give me KQs in either scenario and id 3-bet or cap both.

[elipsesjeff]

Bump.

KQs is an easy 3 bet for me and if it were HU I would 3 bet as well. But the presence of the idiot cold caller does what exactly to the value of my hand?

[pokerfanatic]

If you 3 bet BB has to fold unless he has a hand, now the 40/20 has the chance to cap you and squeezes the 60/30 in for as much as possible and a cap for you is not a good thing... you figure it will pot commit you and put you in marginal situations post flop...

I could see an argument either way but with a KQo here I think I like to play more of a post flop game where I can out play my opponents when I have more information on there hands... so my play is to probably call but 3 bet sometimes to mix it up...

Second:

Again I see no fold here... and my reason becomes stronger given you are getting a bigger discount, though you don't have the extra blind for more money in the pot, I think you still have odds to see a flop and play correctly from there... reasoning for a call or 3 bet could go either way really…

Honestly I do both because the EV is so close…

[Miffed22001]

If you 3 bet BB has to fold unless he has a hand, now the 40/20 has the chance to cap you and squeezes the 60/30 in for as much as possible and a cap for you is not a good thing... you figure it will pot commit you and put you in marginal situations post flop...

I could see an argument either way but with a KQo here I think I like to play more of a post flop game where I can out play my opponents when I have more information on there hands... so my play is to probably call but 3 bet sometimes to mix it up...

Second:

Again I see no fold here... and my reason becomes stronger given you are getting a bigger discount, though you don't have the extra blind for more money in the pot, I think you still have odds to see a flop and play correctly from there... reasoning for a call or 3 bet could go either way really…

Honestly I do both because the EV is so close…

hand 1
in the sb if we call bb must call with any two, pot odds are just gross.
if we 3bet, bb should see calling 2 cold into what is likely to become a 10ish bet pot preflop as an easy implied odds call with almost anything but junk.
In other words, im not sure a 3bet in the sb isolates at all. Id argue id fish here in the bb with a wide range. On the flop nearly everyone has to call so that can only make money for implied odds hands here?
Kqs is thus a definate 3bet because we want the pot big but everyone invloved too because of the implied odds our sootedness gives (i guess this is right?)

scenario2.
Capping will create a probable 12bet pot preflop, assuming everyone calls the cap. Again bb is going to see this and think that 3 bets is getting 4:1 Its diffciult not to fish here either. Calling the 3bet is a no no imo always. I love to see people calling 2bets cold with big cards unsooted. If you wnt to play i guess you cap, but id argue folding is still better. Implied odds must rule this pot surely?
I think playing KQo in both hands offers monster odds to the bb to fish, f i was the bb id love both these spots.

[elipsesjeff]

In scenario 2 we are in the BB....

[pokerfanatic]

And here is one of those situations where style of players and there play will completely differ...

The math is so close for many options that many different players will pick a different line...

Not 3 betting KQs I think is weak as hell...

Folding KQo I think is weak as hell...

I’d have to have some amazing read to fold KQo in that spot... and you just don't have that information, mathematically my play is sound given I play it correctly 99.9% maybe fuck it up once in a 1000 times you should still show a profit...]

I mean it’s not like you are going to take KQo past the flop on a Axx flop for example… or when you get more information you narrow down the 40/20 to AK or AQ you fold easily as well…

When you flop a Broadway you figure to get 2sb flop, 4bb on the turn or more depending on what they hold, and probably 2 on the river thus 7bb so you have big implied odds if you hit a hand like a straight… you also have odds when you flop the draw to spike it on the turn and get bets out of it… it’s more about when you do connect then when you brick completely… I figure you connect probably 45-55% of the time in some way… but if you play it correctly post flop you only need to turn a big pot about 25-35% to break even or be in the black on it…

[Miffed22001]

id call if in the bb on hand2. (missed that lol)

Im not happy folding KQo is weak, but i take the point and likelyhood of hand ranges here makes KQ a good hand. I just think bb has to call no matter what our actions in hand1 but i think im leaning back toward a 3bet rather than anyting else.

If we were on the bb in hand1 id 3bet without hesitation against weak players and consider it more often than not even against a reasonable players, but im not happy its 'nice poker' :P

[elipsesjeff]

If we were on the bb in hand1 id 3bet without hesitation

why?

[euphoricism]

1. Call. If you threebet you're stuck leading the flop. If the flop ain't pretty, you are going to have a bitch of a time playing post-flop. Further, 40/20s tend to go to showdown too much, as do 60/30s -- in an even bigger way. Youve gotta hit to win, and really, you probably need to hit fairly strong.

Call, donk a decent flop, do your best to protect it. If the flop isn't favorable, its easy to get away from.



2. I think I dump this for much of the same reason as above, but in addition there is a lot more strength being shown out there. Getting capped would blow. Dump it. Marginal hand, shit position, facing a raise and a reraise. You really dont want to see these guys get into a raising war when a Q flops. Does he have AA? Pulling a line? QJ?

Not worth the fight.

[euphoricism]

1 is horrible.
Either fold or 3 bet i think, but im not sure. I hate taking the 5:1 here with a decent, but unsooted hand, that will encourage the bb to call with any two. I probably dominate both players ranges here as well.

I think its doubtful that we dominate both players. It is highly likely that atleast one of them has an Ace, hence we are behind. Our only hope is to hit the flop fairly hard.

[Miffed22001]

Miffed22001 wrote:
If we were on the bb in hand1 id 3bet without hesitation


why?

I like to take control of this pot.
Im punishing the 60/30 for extra bets and cold calling and forcing the 40/20 to play some poker. Its likely as in the other scenario that someone has an ace so while we dont dominate if we hit we probably get paid by players who take too much trash to showdown. We win enough in this position to bloat the pot preflop for extra bets. Id be anoyed i was probably giving auto drawing odds to any draw on the flop, maybe thats the reason not to 3 bet. bleh, if they play so many hands ill take semi-strong hands that hit to showdown more often for extra bets.

[elipsesjeff]

Here are the Pokerstove stove numbers for each analysis:

Scenario one, if we just call preflop:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,765,673 games 12.656 secs 218,526 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.2052 % 26.93% 01.28% { KQo }
Hand 2: 28.1722 % 26.70% 01.48% { 22+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A5o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 23.6618 % 22.37% 01.30% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 4: 19.9608 % 19.20% 00.77% { random }


Scenario 1, if we 3 bet preflop:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,599,674 games 14.500 secs 386,184 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.1832 % 32.67% 01.52% { KQo }
Hand 2: 36.0609 % 34.31% 01.76% { 22+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A5o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 29.7558 % 28.29% 01.47% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }


Most of our equity comes from the idiot cold caller, otherwise we are barely breakeven. So Let me see if i do this right, relative to the pot size if we call in hand one we are putting in 1.5 SB in an 8 SB pot, which is 18.75% of the pot when we have 28% equity, a net gain of almost 10%. Whereas in hand two we are putting in 3 SB in a 10 SB pot, which is 30 % odds when we have 34% equity. We are making money with both in the long run, but we'd make more money by just calling. Does this sound right?

[midas06]

What about some fold equity you gain by 3-betting preflop and telling the table that you have a monster?

[elipsesjeff]

What about some fold equity you gain by 3-betting preflop and telling the table that you have a monster?

Thats the intangible, do you win more hands because of the aggression? I think it all matters of what happens on the flop.

Calling gives us the opportunity to make the most money with the least amount of variance IMO (and pokerstove agrees). Whether you could win more money by putting more at risk is something I can't answer. Thus the reason for this thread.

[pokerfanatic]

What about some fold equity you gain by 3-betting preflop and telling the table that you have a monster?

3 bets coming from an argo player don't ALWAYS mean that they always have a monster...

I think that the 40/20 will realize this and a lot of times run a cap because he knows that the 60/30 is not folding a hand...

Now you find yourself in a shitty situation where your KQo just shrank up big time 3 way capped...

Your KQo goes from what might be ahead to probably way behind, what is the 40/20s capping range? AK, AQ, AJs (maybe that's thin), AA-JJ (maybe TT and 99 depends)... but a good 80% of his range has one of your cards in it putting you at a 70/30 to just him and a even bigger dog against the 60/30s call...

When we get capped here i put my had at no bettor then 25% to win... that's just not a good thing... when you hit you make a lot sure but how often do you flop a straight or a straight draw? I think it's like 8% (I’m guessing someone can actually do the math if they want)...

I think in this situation that your hand almost has reverse implied odds if you 3 bet AND then in turn happen to get capped... and with to over argo player in the pot that might just happen even if the 40/20 calls the 60/30 might be like hell i might as well cap now since no one is folding anyways GAMBOL!!!

Let’s just say that the 40/20 caps around 5% of his hands in this spot (what i described above as a possible capping range):

Since the 60/30 will call a lot but not everything I have it set that he calls 60% of his hands…

If the 40/20 calls and the 60/30 calls well Jeff has the numbers in this post for your equity (would be the calling equity about)

Here are Poker Stoves results:

519,970,856,328 games 1259.110 secs 412,966,981 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.4339 % 24.01% 01.42% { KQo }
Hand 2: 51.5288 % 50.06% 01.47% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 3: 23.0373 % 22.27% 00.77% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }

[Miffed22001]

Thats the intangible, do you win more hands because of the aggression? I think it all matters of what happens on the flop.

Calling gives us the opportunity to make the most money with the least amount of variance IMO (and pokerstove agrees). Whether you could win more money by putting more at risk is something I can't answer. Thus the reason for this thread.

This was my reason for suggesting a 3bet preflop.
I think for me at least it would be how much respect i have at the table and how calling stationy the other players are that determines whether id 3bet/cap these situations.
Looking at the numbers i dont think pure aggression alone makes up for the deficit between the numbers.
However, if i was playing b2b or perhaps crypto (and other super tight networks) id be tempted to say the 3bet overs masses of postflop fold equity. My time on party is limited as yet but i would think the fold equity is less apparent there.

[elipsesjeff]

However, if i was playing B2B or perhaps Crypto (and other super tight networks) id be tempted to say the 3bet overs masses of postflop fold equity.

Wouldn't that mean though that your KQo would be more likely to be behind and dominated than otherwise? The tighter the players the less KQo is worth in that position.