M and EV

[SirJobsalot]

Hey,

I probably sound like such a dumbass but...

Can somebody explain for me the terms M and EV (+ or -). I see them used, and I understand what the EV stands for, but not what it means.

Thank you in advance.

[Staresy]

First off, Welcome to FTR!

Second, don't think you are a dumbass - certainly not for asking questions! - that's what this site is for.

Ok, M is from Harrington on Hold 'Em and it is basically a way of equating your stack relative to the blinds and antes. Your "M" is the size of your stack divided by the BB+SB+any Antes.

So, say you have a 1,500 stack and the blinds are 100/200 - no antes, your M = 1500/200+100 = 5.

Say you have a 2,000 stack and the blinds are 200/400 with a 50 ante, your M = 2000/200+400+50 = 3.07

Both of these would be in Harrington's "Red Zone" - indicating you better make a move pretty damn quick!!

You should try and take a look at HoH. It's a very good and easy read.

Ok, EV = Expected Value.

Basically, this is can be the long or short term profit / loss of making a specific decision.

Now, lets say you are in the BB with a 5000 stack and the blinds are 200/400. You are dealt 7 9
everyone folds to the SB who moves all in for 500 chips total. It costs you 100 chips more to win the 900 pot on offer. Since you are being offered 9:1 pot odds and he can't put any more money in the pot, it is correct to call with any two cards here because you should never be more than 9:1 behind pre-flop. This is +EV. Even if you don't win this specific hand, if you are faced with this situation often enough, you will win more than 1 time in 10 (9:1).

now, same scenario, but the SB has 10,000 chips (compared to your 5,000). Here, calling with 79s would be -EV.

Probably not the best example on offer, but hopefully you get the picture about the expected value of making the decisions - even if you win or lose the specific hand in question, you need to work out whether it is correct to do so in the long run.

incidentally, I live in south London!

[SirJobsalot]

Thanks. That helped a lot.

Not a West Ham fan, are ya? I'm a Spurs man myself.

[Staresy]

no, worse for you. I'm a Gooner!

[SirJobsalot]

Did YOU posion our players?

[biondino]

South London and an Arsenal fan? Unless you're over 93 years old, sir, I call you a north-London-loving turncoat and a bounder of the highest order!

[geoffm33]

I like the example in Sklansky's TOP (Theory of Poker). Another great book. It's a non-poker example but explains it in very simple terms.

-----
Say you and a friend are betting even money on the flip of a coin. Heads you win a buck, tails you lose a buck. The odds are 1 to 1 and you are betting $1 to $1. So your mathematical expectation is exactly $0 since you cannot expect, mathematically, to be ahead or behind after 2 flips or 200.

But, lets say some imbecile wants to bet $2 to your $1 on the flip of the coin. Suddenly you have a positive expectation (+EV) of 50 cents per bet. Why 50 cents? On average you will win one bet for every two you lose. You wager the first $1 and lose $1, you wager the second $1 you win $2. You have wagered $1 twice and you are $1 ahead. Each of these $1 bets has earned 50 cents.
----

[Hartlin]

Erm, Staresy,

Isn't M = Blinds + Antes (Starting pot)

Your stack is 4,000

So if the table is 10 handed (for maths sake). 200/400/20.

200 + 400 + (20*10) = 800 is the starting pot.

Your M would be 5 as opposed to the 620 suggested, making your M 6.4 (which fluctuates your playing style a little)

Is this correct or am I mistaken?

[Staresy]

yes, you are right.

I will actually wake up at some point today!!

[biondino]

You are correct, though the fact that Staresy used an ante of 50 in his post has made this whole thing very confused!

[Hartlin]

haha

No problem! Just trying to make sure he gets the right info! I even double checked with a buddy of mine to make sure I was right after I made the post.. I was questioning myself here.. lol

[Laeelin]

A couple important things about "M"


M = 4-10 it's all in with a good hand or fold... you dont play flops anymore...

M = 3-4 it's all in with any two while you still can force people to have a hand to call you, and thats more important than cards... you want wait till the blinds are folded to you, and push into weaker players.

M < 2 : push first time the blinds are folded to you with anything... If you are the BB, push/call a push. You should only be here if you just lost an all in against a slightly smaller stack...

PS: when I hit an "M" of < 2 it's normally because I opened two many MTT's and I checkfolded myself into this posistion... after I finish kicking myself, I refocus on my the game and try to recover.

[Lukie]

M = 4-10 it's all in with a good hand or fold... you dont play flops anymore...

I disagree with this.

M of 4 = clear push/fold.

Above that, in the 6-7ish, even 5-8ish range, it usually gets a bit tricky, but with an M of 10, when you are opening a pot, there is always enough wiggle room to play a little bit of poker, and be correct in doing so.

[GatorJH]

M = 4-10 it's all in with a good hand or fold... you dont play flops anymore...

I disagree with this.

M of 4 = clear push/fold.

Above that, in the 6-7ish, even 5-8ish range, it usually gets a bit tricky, but with an M of 10, when you are opening a pot, there is always enough wiggle room to play a little bit of poker, and be correct in doing so.

That mode is closer to the truth in tournament's, however in ring games I am more willing to play a little with a low M.

As a matter of fact, in ring games, when my M gets below 5 I will typically add more chips just so I have enough in my stack to allow for fold equity.

[jukejointroach]

when your M gets to 10 or less, raising 3x or so nearly commits you, so why not push? especially if your hand is good enough for a raise. race with it.

[GatorJH]

M = 4-10 it's all in with a good hand or fold... you dont play flops anymore...

If I have an M of 10 ($7.50) on the button with 45s and 3 people limp into the pot is a push still the best line here or could you simply call and play the flop accordingly?

[Lukie]

why is there even a discussion here about ring games? When are we sitting with 10bb's at a cash game.. not too often I hope?

If I have an M of 10 ($7.50) on the button with 45s and 3 people limp into the pot is a push still the best line here or could you simply call and play the flop accordingly?

seems like a pretty easy fold

[GatorJH]

why is there even a discussion here about ring games? When are we sitting with 10bb's at a cash game.. not too often I hope.

I sort of pointed that out earlier when I mentioned that when my M gets low I just re-load so I have the ability to create some fold equity.

However, IF someone decides to sick with a low M (say they don't have any additional money in their account), at what point do you get to push/fold mode? I think it is when your M is closer to 5 than 10.

[Laeelin]

---edited(several times) to make this easier to understand *i hope*.. falling asleep, so I hope that this is readable... ---

M has nothing to do with ring.

M is a way of understanding of the relation of the blinds + anties and your chipstack, to the amount of time you have left... (note: Time is talking about where you place in the MTT, not a measure of "real" time.. it's just easier to explain/understand, if you just call it "time")

This does not happen in ring. Sure the blinds are there, sure you can be shortstacked, but the time you have left doesnt make a diffrence at all.

M isnt a measure of chips, it's a measure of TIME.

That is why it's useless in ring.

In ring, you just care about what move is the most +EV. You dont care what your M is. Thats how you win in ring. Make the most $EV moves...

In ring $EV and chipEV are always the exact same...

A MTT's is also won by making $EV moves, but unlike ring, $EV and chipEV is not the same thing (though they are the same most of the time) The reason is because your not really after chips (though thats your long term goal)... your after TIME.. Sometimes you need to make a -chipEV move to gain time...

The most $EV move in a MTT, is the one that is the most +timeEV in the long run... not the one that gets you the most chips right now.

Want an example of why chipEV and timeEV are not the same thing?

Imagine this...

Your at a FT.
You have an 6 BB's.
4 players are left.
Payout is: $50k, $30k, $20k, $0k
UTG pushes (7bb's).
Button pushes (9bb's).
SB pushes (9bb's).
You are the BB.
You suddenly have perfect reads on all of them for one hand (gift from god).
UTG has: 5 4
Button has: J J
SB has: K K
You glance at your cards and see A A
Then fold.
Why??

It's simple, you want to buy enought time to see one more hand:

Folding give you a 20% chace (worse case) of moving up to 3rd+, and a 80% chance to move up to 2nd+... and a 100% chance of NOT running out of time this hand.

Calling gives you a 49% getting 2nd+, and a 51% chance of running out of time this hand (going out 4th)

I dont know about you, but i'll always take the $28,000 EV move (folding) over the $24,500 EV (calling) move any day.... and thats assumeing you always come in first if you call and win with AA, last of the remaining players if you fold AA... so the diffrence is actually a lot more than that.

This should never be folded in ring.

As you can see, a +chipEV move can be a horrid move... if there is another move that gives more +timeEV... This is why you sometimes push in a MTT when you would fold in the same situation in ring, and why you would fold at times in a MTT when you would push in ring.

M just gives us an easy way to understand how much time we have left at this moment... and that is one thing that helps to let you know when that +chipEV move just became a -timeEV, and when that -chipEV move just became +timeEV.

In a tourney, +timeEV is always....
ALWAYS!
Critical.

In ring, +timeEV is always....
ALWAYS!
Useless...

Therefore, M a measure of time, is useless in ring, and critical in a MTT.