I am having trouble calculating EV midplay.

[RevolverX]

I understand the concept, but I don't really see how to figure out if a situation is +EV or -EV in play. I know pot odds cold.

I'll see if I can give an example..

Let's say I'm MP2 with JTs. I call .10 bb to limp in, and then SB goes allin with his whole stack of $1.25. Is calling this raise a +EV with my hand?

Another one..

Suppose I have 67s, against a possible AA KK or AK due to two reraises preflop, and I call. 4 8 2 hits the flop. The pot is $4.25 and the AA bets $3. Terrible pot odds for me, but is calling a +EV?

Is it ever -EV to push a straight or flush on the river if you miss it on the turn?

I would love to get this concept down. Jackvance you seem the brightest on this board, would love to hear from you on this as well.

EDIT: I read another scenario on another thread that I should always be calling 4xbb raises with pocket pairs (22 33 44 55 66 etc.) because it's +EV. Well I've been doing that and it seems I'm just throwing my money away because I never hit on the flop. How is this +EV? Is it still +EV if the 4xbb gets raised preflop? I

[Knytestorme]

Second one first.

You have 4 outs here (since you didn't list the suits of the flop) being 4 5's giving you the nut straight. Given there are 5 known cards and you are putting your opponent on those cards then none of your outs are contaminated so you have:

4 outs, 47 unknown cards so 4:39 or 1:9.75

Odds being given by the bet are $3:$7.25 or 1:2.417

Therefore the pot is offering about 1/4 the odds needed to make the call, so it's -EV to make it. If 2 of the flop are the same suit as yours it changes it a bit however, as long as you can be confident your opponent isn't also on a lush draw.

Also, if there was another person still to act that you are certain will also make the call then it's still -EV, as with the extra $3 in the pot you are still only getting 1:3.412, or 1/3 the odds required by your outs.

Better way of thinking about it is that if you make the same call 10 times, you will hit once and lose 9 times.

For those 10 times you will :
Win: 1 x $10.25 (assuming no further betting for simplicity)
Lose: 9 x $3 = $27 (again assuming no further betting)

Therefore your EV is -$16.75 (roughly)

Then again, I could also be wrong

For the first one, you are being asked to call $1.15 into a $1.35 pot or odds of 1:1.17, I can't see any hand you'd be against where you were essentially even money with JTs so it would be a -EV call, especially considering that AA is around 1:3 of standing up pre-flop.

[jackvance]

Let's say I'm MP2 with JTs. I call .10 bb to limp in, and then SB goes allin with his whole stack of $1.25. Is calling this raise a +EV with my hand?

You're making it too complicated. What range of hands is he pushing with here? That's what you have to be asking yourself. Ax/any pp? Half the time you'll be dominated, other half a coinflop or something? Probably not too wise to call. JTs is great to see a flop with in a raised pot though!

Suppose I have 67s, against a possible AA KK or AK due to two reraises preflop, and I call. 4 8 2 hits the flop. The pot is $4.25 and the AA bets $3. Terrible pot odds for me, but is calling a +EV?

I'll give you the math. Say after the preflop raises your stack is $8 and so is his. The pot is $4.25, he bets $3. You have to call $3 into $10.25 or 29%. You have 4 outs on your gutshot, or about 9%. This is obviously a lot less than the 29% that you need to pay.

But let's say you have a strong feeling your opp is gonna push on the turn, no matter what hits. So now we have this situation:

You pay $3 for:
9/100 to win $4.25+$8 (his stack)=$12.25
91/100 to fold on the turn push (when you don't hit your straight)

Thus: EV=-$3+(9/100)x($12.25)=-$1.89

So a -EV move to call, even if you can take his stack if you hit.

Is it ever -EV to push a straight or flush on the river if you miss it on the turn?

When you have a winner, all your moves are +EV ofcourse.. but amongst those you want to pick the one that gives you the most EV. So basically, "how much is he going to call with a weaker hand?" is the question here, not any sort of EV thing.

Jackvance you seem the brightest on this board, would love to hear from you on this as well.

lol.. I'm just a math buff, poker-experience-wise I am noobie still.

I read another scenario on another thread that I should always be calling 4xbb raises with pocket pairs (22 33 44 55 66 etc.) because it's +EV. Well I've been doing that and it seems I'm just throwing my money away because I never hit on the flop. How is this +EV? Is it still +EV if the 4xbb gets raised preflop? I

Make that: always call if his stack and yours are 15x or more the size of his bet.. so that he can pay you off. But in all honesty, while this is a good guideline, do not expect *too much* of it. You have 1/9 to hit. So 8 times out of 9 you'll miss the flop. To compensate, you need some decent postflop game to make up.. steal pots, etc. Also, remember that he isn't always going to give you his stack if you hit your set.

[Pelion]

JTs is great to see a flop with in a raised pot though!

Just make sure you dont get tied to a pair. You are really looking for flush/straight/2 pair or better with a hand like this.

[jackvance]

I don't like 2 pair with JTs to be honest.. rather big reverse implied odds situation in a lot of cases.

[Pelion]

I don't like 2 pair with JTs to be honest.. rather big reverse implied odds situation in a lot of cases.

Yea I have to think pretty hard before I go crazy with 2 pair or even trips with JT after calling a PFR.

[jackvance]

Two pair to me is a bit like top pair. Unless you are avid at recognizing the circumstances where a weaker hand will pay you off here, you'll be winning small pots and losing big ones with this. Just roam through your stats and see how often the guy that is paying off your straights, sets and flushes with his stack is on 2 pair .

Top two pair plays a bit better usually though.

[Pelion]

Yea I have to think pretty hard before I go crazy with 2 pair or even trips with JT after calling a PFR.

Its actually pretty rare that Ill call a PFR with JTs anyway. Ill only call it if the raiser is very tight and even then Id much rather have 56s

[jackvance]

Are you replying to yourself there Pelion?...

Btw I use the same rule of thumb for JTs as for all my floating.. call if the raiser's stack is atleast 15x the raise. And I checked my last 1k hands; I got JTs 3 times, 2 raises and 1 called a raise.