zook's Picks: NFL Week 14

[zook]

Nice week last week, up ~6 units. YTD:

Straight wagers: 15-10
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 1-3
Totals: 0-1
+18.10 units

Lots of games I like this week. Only made one play so far:

Cle +7.5 vs. Pit (-105) 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Rivalry game, Pittsburgh's been terrible up until last week and Cleveland just beat a good KC team. Rookie QB making his first start for Cleveland, which I normally hate, but he came in cold off the bench on Sunday and handled it well. Two low-scoring teams, I'll take the points.

Other preliminary thoughts... NYG +3 vs. Car, Giants looked good against Dallas just had a defensive meltdown at the end, I think they're a better team than Carolina... Saints +6.5 vs. Dal, I'd love to see this hit +7 and take the points and play the M/L, Dallas is primed for a let-down game and NO is better than they're given credit for... NYJ -3.5 vs. Buf, Jets are just a better team and have a lot more to play for... Pats -3.5 vs. Mia, ditto the Jets analysis... STL +6.5 vs. Chi, also hoping this goes to +7 and I can take the points and play the M/L, the Bears are overrated and I love playing a home dog in a primetime game.

Thoughts on these are welcome.

[ensign_lee]

NYG @ CAR - Careful, the Giants are about ready for an implosion of epic proportions

NO @ DAL - I liked this one too when I saw it. Too bad I didn't grab the +7 when it came out, but I told myself I would hit early lines anymore, since all I ever seem to be doing is buying back at a loss later. Plus, Pinnacle seems to be trying to keep away Dallas money. This will probably be a NO play or a no play for me. Dallas's home field advantage could be the worst in the NFL, with their fair weather fans never making noise. Sheesh. I like fading the Crygirls at home

NYJ vs. BUF - I'm probably not going to play this game, but we'll see. If I was going to take a side, I'd definitely take the home team here, as Buffalo is horrendous on the road. I think they've only beaten my poor Texans (and that was on two fluke TDs and a stupidass'ed TD pass with 13 seconds left).

NE @ MIA - I hate playing Miami at home, but there sure are a shit ton of people on NE.

STL vs. CHI - I'll probably be on this with you again, even though betting on STL has been like burning money lately. Still, this line looks way too low, and I suspect the public will be all over it. It will be STL or nothing for me.

[zook]

Thanks for your thoughts lee. You could be right about the Giants, but Carolina's pretty low right now too. And I guess I like the Giants in a battle of desperate teams coming off terrible losses As for NO/Dal, from the juice at Pinnacle it looks like the line could go back to +7, although the public's slightly on NO at this point. I'll still take it +6.5, I think the Saints win this game outright a lot.

[zook]

Really like the Saints this week. Just placed these:

NO +7 vs. Dal (-110) - 2 units @ Pinnacle
NO M/L vs. Dal (+273) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[bigspenda73]

Cle +7.5 vs. Pit (-105) 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Sign me up!

[zook]

Lost the Cle bet, don't see a ton I like tomorrow besides New Orleans. I do like the Jets again though.

NYJ -3.5 vs. Buf (-102) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I'm also looking at a three-team 6.5 pt. teaser. Thinking SDG -2.5, Ten +7.5 and Was +7.5. Probably will place that tomorrow morning but I want to wait for any line changes.

[zook]

Added a few picks after Fezzik posted his:

Min M/L vs. DET (+105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

JAC M/L vs. Ind (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

3-team 6.5-point teaser (+140) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
JAC +7.5 vs. Ind
WAS +7.5 vs. Phi
SDG -2.5 vs. Den

Those plus the Jets and 3 units on the Saints should be it.

[zook]

Another big weekend, 5-1 on the day, +7 units. 5-2 +6 for the week.

The Saints came up big for me

YTD:
Straight wagers: 19-12
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 2-3
Totals: 0-1
+23.92 units

[Eric]

The Saints came up big for me

I guess Romo is human.

Didn't see the game but the ESPN highlights made it look like the onside kick pissed Dallas off.

[elipsesjeff]

Nice win man. Where are your 3 team teasers at? I miss those.

[zook]

Nice win man. Where are your 3 team teasers at? I miss those.

Thanks. I had a 3-teamer hit this week Haven't been playing many because the juice at Pinny for teasers isn't great. It also seems like they set a lot of their lines to avoid Wongable teasers. I just read on another site about a strategy of betting the 3 or 4 team "super teasers" at Pinnacle with one of the games being a late game so that if the first two or three hit you can get a nice hedge/middle on the late game using the +juice alternate high/low lines. If I find one that looks good this week I'll post it Sat. night or Sun. morning.

[zook]

I guess Romo is human.

Yeah, it was only a matter of time. He'll bounce back though. What this game really showed, imo, is that Sean Payton owns Bill Parcells.

Didn't see the game but the ESPN highlights made it look like the onside kick pissed Dallas off.

That was a shock. You don't see many rubbing it in/running up the score type plays in the NFL. Made me think there's some bad blood between Payton and Parcells.