what odds are needed to semi-bluff-continuation-bet the turn

[|~|ypermegachi]

you have 2 face cards.
someone limps, you raise. one of the blinds call.
the flop comes with undercards, average scariness, with possible flush draw showing.
both players check. you bet, one player calls.
the turn comes x, and they check. do you bet or take the free card?

ok, let's break it down to a couple of variables on the turn.
1) who is the opponent(s)? specifically, what probability will all players fold?
2) what is the size of the pot?
3) what are the chances of you improving?

let's stick with my initial example. the pot on the turn is 4BB. let's say the opponent is unknown, and the turn blanked. you put them as either hitting a pair on the flop, or a flush draw. you have 2 overcards, drawing to 6 outs (minus 1 for possible flush fake outs), so 5.

with 5 outs, you're roughly 9-10:1 to hit. you think that they will fold about 1 in 4 times.

so....if my math is correct, odds of folding them out are 3:1. the current pot odds ard 4:1....so by this calculation, semi-bluffing, or even pure bluffing is profitable.

i think i got something wrong here, cuz i got burned to death continuation betting the turn lately.

[Xanadu]

The question I have is why are the odds of folding them out 3:1?
If you have put them on a pair or a flush draw, won't most players call much more often than that?

[elipsesjeff]

I used to check alot but find that even the average idiot will throw a bet out there in an unwanted pot (works the same way live too). If you are ahead on the turn (or think you are) then you should bet for value. If you think your opponent will fold like 1/pot size, then you should bet. And finally, if you check behind what are the range of hands that you are folding or calling with on the river? More often than not I'm bet/folding the turn than checking behind and calling the river.

[|~|ypermegachi]

The question I have is why are the odds of folding them out 3:1?
If you have put them on a pair or a flush draw, won't most players call much more often than that?

hmmm true enough.
let's assume it's 50/50 that they have a pair, and flush draw.

it's 3:1 that they fold the pair
and they never fold the draw.

so i guess that bumps it up to 6:1 right?
in that case, our bet is now -EV and we should check the turn...

...

interesting 1/pot size idea. that's only to fold right? does it include chances they might draw to a better hand?

for me, almost always if i don't improve, that turn bet is the last bet in the pot for me. exceptions are AK, and Ax for read specific opponents.

[elipsesjeff]

I meant to say 1 BB/pot size, hope that is what you read it as. I dont know how you can include chances to drawing to a better hand because that really only increases the reason to bet the turn to charge him for his draw.