Hand reading exercise

[chardrian]

Down to 50 (out of over 1000 entrants) in the nightly $30 rebuy on Dise. Final table gets big money (top 9 make over $1k, and top 3 are usually over $7k now with winner getting over $20k). Tables are breaking down frequently now, so you have just been moved to this table and have no real reads.

Your goal is to put each player on a range of hands and then explain why.

A second question is to give what range of hands you would call your whole stack off with if you are chardrian, and if you are homebush (ignoring for now whether it was right to simply call the original raise with that range of hands to begin with).

I would love to see some of the big dogs' (e.g. ilikeaces, michael1123, soupie, scgolfer, etc.) thoughts on this.

I'll add what people actually had bit by bit (me first of course) to get some discussions on whether each player played their hand well or really muffed it.

Game #1319462344 - Tournament $80,000 R&A - 4,000/8,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2006/03/01-00:10:55.5 (CST)
Table "$80,000 R&A 35" (MTT) -- Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: movievision (296,195 in chips)
Seat 2: homebush (86,908 in chips)
Seat 3: bigtmoney1 (146,093 in chips)
Seat 4: mattg1983 (172,538 in chips)
Seat 5: Poker Jack88 (75,764 in chips)
Seat 6: chardrian (109,676 in chips)
Seat 7: Bob_Paul (46,200 in chips)
Seat 8: 91element (63,026 in chips)
Seat 9: El Heffe (190,569 in chips)
Seat 10: Jade (40,182 in chips)
homebush: Ante (400)
bigtmoney1: Ante (400)
mattg1983: Ante (400)
Poker Jack88: Ante (400)
chardrian: Ante (400)
Bob_Paul: Ante (400)
91element: Ante (400)
El Heffe: Ante (400)
Jade : Ante (400)
movievision: Ante (400)
homebush: Post Small Blind (4,000)
bigtmoney1: Post Big Blind (8,000)
Dealing...
mattg1983: Fold
Poker Jack88: Fold
chardrian: Raise (25,000)
Bob_Paul: Fold
91element: Fold
El Heffe: Fold
Jade : Fold
movievision: Fold
homebush: Call (21,000)
bigtmoney1: Raise (137,693)
chardrian: Call All-in (84,276)
homebush: Call All-in (61,500)

[drmcboy]

chardrian: Raise (25,000) - AJs, 77+, maybe KQ
homebush: Call (21,000) - I hate this play, unless he's planning on the stop n go, in which case KJo+, 55ish? Still, from the SB i would rather a push

bigtmoney1: Raise (137,693) - JJ+, AK

chardrian: Call All-in (84,276) AK, TT+ since you overvalue TT

homebush: Call All-in (61,500) - no idea. AA?

[pgil]

ive gotta put chardrian on a mid-strong A (T+), or 99+. put in almost 1/4 of his stack from MP while only raising to 9000 more than is in the pot. looks like it wants a call (?). homebush with a PP, 55+ or a mid range A, KQs, suited connectors. bigtmoney can do that with any two cards (squeeze play), but put him on any two face cards, A5+, 33+.

after homebush calls this i would put him on 66+, AQ+. chardrian on the same range as he is raising with.

[drmcboy]

It's not a squeeze, unless he's a donkey. He has to assume one of the two is calling. if the stacks were 200K+, then I could maybe go with a squeeze.

[pgil]

really. i figured the SB calling looks pretty damn weak. the initial raiser however, has to be worried about what the SB is calling with and the BB is raising here. i guess you're right about the stack sizes being too small for both to fold, but if you have a half decent hand on the BB a reraise AI may keep the initial raiser out while getting only a call from the SB, who you have covered with a lot of dead money in the pot when the SB has shown no real strength. it doesnt seem like a horrible play if you feel the initial raiser was on a steal attempt, especially with the it being so close to the final table.

[Sprayed]

I would put you on A10+ and 77+. However, I would be cautious since your stack is around 7M and you maybe trying to get someone to call or push over you. In that case I would figure you for AQ+ and 1010+. I would put bigtmoney on a big hand similar to yours AQ+ and 1010+ and he is trying to isolate. homebush is short and he could be going with A7+ and any pp.

To answer your second question, if it was me, I will be pushing 66+, KQ+, and A10+ in middle normally depending upon reads and what have you when my stack is M of 7. If I was you and I simply raised and then faced a call, I would rather call off my remaining stack with 88+ and AQ+. If I was bigtmoney I would be pushing over you with AK, QQ+ and maybe JJ.

[drmcboy]

SB is weak, but my point is you're not making the play with any two because the SB pretty much has to call if raiser folds (massive price), and if Char calls you and your any two are pwned.

If BB knew Char was on a steal I would take my range down some (88+, AQ maybe), but with no read I'm not putting EPish raiser on a steal. You make this play hoping Char folds and SB plays, but you can't make it with a hand you for sure don't want to play against Char, which is why I made his range the tighest.

[chardrian]

It's not a squeeze, unless he's a donkey. He has to assume one of the two is calling. if the stacks were 200K+, then I could maybe go with a squeeze.

I agree he should assume that one of the two is calling, but there are factors which make the inappropriate squeeze at least a little more possible: 1) he has us both outstacked, 2) no one wants to get knocked out now and open raising to steal pots is more prevalent with blinds so big, and 3) the action makes the squeeze more attractive - open-raiser could easily have trash now just hoping to steal blinds, coldcaller with position seems super weak and could easily fold to a push.

EDIT - pgil answered this just as well, if not better, than what I just wrote.

[Sprayed]

Side note: didn't see the call initially from shorty. I would increase his hand range to JJ+ and AK. He wants another caller. Unless he is a total donk and is calling to just see the flop with a marginal hand and got caught up in the AI fest.

[drmcboy]

inappropriate squeeze

would that be during the rare times you're PMSing?

[chardrian]

SB is weak

Is SB (homebush) weak card wise or weak as a player?

[chardrian]

inappropriate squeeze

would that be during the rare times you're PMSing?

During those rare times I do get pms, then I do become quite tender so the squeeze is totally inappropriate.

[dj newman]

Bigmoney could be doing a squeeze play here so I put him on AQ+ and 99+
Chadrain I put on AA or KK...at the very least QQ or AK (i Wouldn't call with anything less in this position.
As for Homeboy...he should not call with anything less than AA, KK or AK (although his call of the intitial raise was a definate mistake) and therefore I think he is a little bit of a donk and probably has 99+ and AQ+.

[chardrian]

Ok.

Really good answers so far I think.

Now I'll give you my range's for when I had to make my all-in call.

Bigtmoney - TT+, AK (maybe even AQ) or an inappropriate squeeze with trash.

homebush - AA/KK or 22-99; ATs+, AJ+, QK and hoping for a good flop, or super weak/poor playing of TT-QQ.

[pgil]

gievn those are your ranges, you would have to be calling w/ QQ(maybe JJ)+, AKs, correct?

[chardrian]

TT (which dr correctly stated I value more than others) would have been my eek point. I probably woulda folded. JJ+ and AK I call with. I had AK os. There was enough of a chance for an inappropriate squeeze that I instacalled this.

[Sprayed]

Hey chard, were you going for the raise in hopes that someone would call or push or did you think that your chip stack isn't that much at risk and an initial push wasn't necessary?

[chardrian]

This is where I personally have a bit of a disagreement with M and pushing. I realize my M was a little below 7, but I think an open-push here is a really bad play (especially with AK).

AK is a monster monster hand at this point in the tourney especially with my chip stack. I thought I would just take the down the blinds here with my raise which was fine, but I was not going to be unhappy at all by being called or raised. If I run into AA or KK here - well that's just my luckbox sucking balls again. If I run into a pp QQ or below, I'll take that race and hope my luckbox finally comes through. And if I run into anything else (which is very very possible) I do a little dance.

Against one call there with AK I probably push most flops.

Even if I didn't have AK however, I still don't like the open-push here. Standard raises will generally take the blinds. Reraises almost always mean big but not necessarily huge hands. By doing a standard 3x BB bet here I still had 85k and I can fold and still be aggressive and take down blinds later. So when I have 10xBB or more I would much rather standard raise and keep enuff of a stack to force people out preflop than push and run into a real hand.

[drmcboy]

Totally agree with 3x vs open push here. Open push is maybe slightly better with AK, but if you pick up AA an orbit later, do you open push again? I'd rather maintain deception until my stack is around 5-6x BB. Obv this is table dependent as well, sometimes A7 is folding to 3x but calling the push.

As you say, the key is being willing to call/push on a lot of flops, because by not pushing we leave ourselves open to stop and go.

[Sprayed]

Makes sense. Just curious about chard's thoughts when playing the hand. You want action with AK in this situation so a 3xer is not bad and may encourage others to call. However, when you are getting to the point where you are pushing flops because you don't have the chips to make plays, an initial pre-flop push may be the way to go. Sometimes I would rather take down the blinds with a push than to let several people with large stacks see a flop with marginal hands when I have AK.

[chardrian]

Well it looks like that's all we are gonna get out of this one.

Results - bigt pushed with 33
char - I had AK (as I already said)
homebush - JJ (horribly played imo)

[Sprayed]

Well it looks like that's all we are gonna get out of this one.

Results - bigt pushed with 33
char - I had AK (as I already said)
homebush - JJ (horribly played imo)

and.........don't tell me the outcum is not important. Did you catch your A or K? My money is on bigt and he caught a 3 for trips or even better quads.

[chardrian]

You must read my blog.

[Sprayed]

lol, I figured something like that had to have happened. Looked too familure. Anyways, tough one chard. I will have to check out your blog more often.

[chardrian]

Anyways, tough one chard.

Actually, I was pretty pleased with how I played this one. A little disappointed that my luckbox failed me, but those initial disappointments are wearing off pretty quickly now (a very good sign I think).

[zenbitz]

Game #1319462344 - Tournament $80,000 R&A - 4,000/8,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2006/03/01-00:10:55.5 (CST)
Table "$80,000 R&A 35" (MTT) -- Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: movievision (296,195 in chips)
Seat 2: homebush (86,908 in chips)
Seat 3: bigtmoney1 (146,093 in chips)
Seat 4: mattg1983 (172,538 in chips)
Seat 5: Poker Jack88 (75,764 in chips)
Seat 6: chardrian (109,676 in chips)
Seat 7: Bob_Paul (46,200 in chips)
Seat 8: 91element (63,026 in chips)
Seat 9: El Heffe (190,569 in chips)
Seat 10: Jade (40,182 in chips)
homebush: Ante (400)
bigtmoney1: Ante (400)
mattg1983: Ante (400)
Poker Jack88: Ante (400)
chardrian: Ante (400)
Bob_Paul: Ante (400)
91element: Ante (400)
El Heffe: Ante (400)
Jade : Ante (400)
movievision: Ante (400)
homebush: Post Small Blind (4,000)
bigtmoney1: Post Big Blind (8,000)
Dealing...
mattg1983: Fold
Poker Jack88: Fold
chardrian: Raise (25,000)
Bob_Paul: Fold
91element: Fold
El Heffe: Fold
Jade : Fold
movievision: Fold
homebush: Call (21,000)
bigtmoney1: Raise (137,693)
chardrian: Call All-in (84,276)
homebush: Call All-in (61,500)

Ug, I would hope you guys all had pairs. Theoretically homebush should have AA you should have QQ+, bigtmoney could have anything... but I would say 22-TT.
AK or really bad AQ are also possible.

Oh, I have not read any other posts on this hand yet.

[zenbitz]

Totally agree with 3x vs open push here. Open push is maybe slightly better with AK, but if you pick up AA an orbit later, do you open push again? I'd rather maintain deception until my stack is around 5-6x BB. Obv this is table dependent as well, sometimes A7 is folding to 3x but calling the push.

The other factor is that while, yes, you want a caller/re-raiser with AK... you can't really make 3x raises with ONLY good hands and push only weak ones. And 3x raising weak hands is very bad if you get called (it's fine if you get re-raised).

The Qs here are funny too:
296 : 190 : 172 : 146 : 109 (hero) : 87 : 75 : 63 : 46: 40.

You are right in the middle. Your 3x raise is effectivly a push to at least 4 of the guys you out stack... but you can get out of the way to a re-raise by a bigger stack (assuming you are raising 3x with a hand much worse than AKo!) I would still be worried about playing a flop vs. a big stack who called my PFR.

At M=7 and these Qs on a tight table, I think you can make ONE std 3x raise (with any two) and lay it down... but at M=5, I think you have to just push.

[chardrian]

I concur zen. good response.

[Sprayed]

Anyways, tough one chard.

Actually, I was pretty pleased with how I played this one. A little disappointed that my luckbox failed me, but those initial disappointments are wearing off pretty quickly now (a very good sign I think).

I'm sure that with that win you had all those times your luckbox failed ya doesn't seem to matter anymore.

[JeffreyGB]

Nice post. I play it the same way. I agree about encouraging action and/or stealing more cheaply when your M is between 5 and 10.