Chardrian's tip: Putting your opp on a range of hands

[chardrian]

Ok this post is going to involve part of a hand history but the post is meant more as a topic on getting a read from your opponent's betting pattern and then counting/discounting your outs. It might seem obvious to veterans, but I think it is good practice for beginners.

The scenario. You are in mid/late position with :Qd: :Kd: and have 20k chips in an MTT. The blinds are at 200/400 with a small ante. The guy directly to your right has 12k chips and open-raises (everyone folded to him) for 1,300. You call and everyone else folds. The pot now has close to 3500.

The flop comes :Tc: :Js:

Before any betting is done, you do a quick out counting exercise and quickly come up with 14 outs. 8 outs for the oesd (open end straight draw - any 9 or A will give you a straight) and 6 outs for the remaining Qs and Ks. 14 x 4 (multiply each out by two for each street remaining - since there are 2 streets remaining it is 14x2x2) is 56 so you quickly calculate that you have over a 50/50 shot to win this thing and can get aggressive here.

But then your opponent bets. You have no real read on your opponent. But his bet is strange. He overbets (bets more than what is in the pot) the pot by betting 5k.

So now you need to determine what this bet means. What is he saying to you? Well one of the things he is saying to you is that he is not folding this hand no matter what. He has put in over half his chips. Preflop you might have put him on a very wide range of hands. But postflop, well... he probably isn't making this play with a pocket pair lower than tens (there is always a chance he is just making a weird play that you are misreading but these hands are all doubtful). He probably isnt making this play with TT or JJ because he would then want action and would slow play. He might be making this play with QQ-AA, but again he would probably try to slow play these hands. So what does that leave us as the most probable hands?

AJ-AK and QK. AJ makes sense because he hit his top pair but is vulnerable to a draw and scared that I'll play since I have more chips. His bet makes sense to scare me off and make me pay to hit a draw. AQ and AK make sense as well. He would have bet like this preflop with those hands, and especially with AK many players have a hard time letting go when they get called so he is hoping his hand is best and semi-bluffing if it is not as any Q, K or A should win it for him in his mind (it would give him either a straight or high pair). QK makes sense as a semi-bluff. He is putting his money in as what he thinks is the statistical favorite at over 50% with 14 outs even though he is doubtful that his hand is actually ahead right now.

Out of those 4 hands I tie the QK, and with AJ I have 13 outs (he has the A so only 7 outs for the stright draw and 6 for the Qs and Ks) which is about 50/50. However against both AK and AQ, I have only the 7 outs for the straight. If I were to get the Q or K against those hands I would lose either to the higher kicker or it would give the opp a straight. 7 outs gives me only about a 1 in 4 shot (quick math 7x4=28%). So in the end, I have about a 50/50 shot at winning this hand only against one specific hand and losing about 3/4 of the time against two other hands that are distinctly possible. The best thing for me to do is fold.

By the way. A quick way to figure out your equity on a hand like this is simply to add up the outs and divide by the number of hands. In this case it is 7+7+13/3 = 9 outs. 9x4 is 36 - so my equity is about 36%. If you have a hand where you can't put your opponent on such a tight range the thing to do is figure out the most outs you could have and the least outs you could have and then choose a number in the middle that you feel most likely represents the outs you actually have.

Poker stove shows that my quick calculations are pretty good though:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.7082 % 26.62% 10.09% { KdQd }
Hand 2: 63.2918 % 53.20% 10.09% { AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo}

Hope this post makes sense and was useful. If not, there's always next week's tip o' the week.

[TLR]

Nice example

A few points: Your title is pretty confusing - you are actually not discussing reads (tight, agressive, calling pattern etc...) based on previous hands, you are doing a logical analysis of his hand range based on a generic decent player.

More to the point of your post - overbets are confusing - and this overbet is highly confusing - as you said villian is pot comitted - so if he is trying to buy the pot and he his a decent player he would push.

I would also not otrule JJ, TT and 33 as possible hands - there is a str8 draw on the board and he may be scared of it.

AT and KJ are also not totally out of the question in this case

[chardrian]

Fair enuff. I changed the title.

Like I (at least tried to) said, he could have a set here, I just find it unlikely. There are actually quite a few possibilities he could have: 89, Jx, Tx, an underpair or even a total bluff. I just don't think those are very likely and that's where poker gets fun. Each player will come up with a different range of hands - when you are able to correctly tighten up a range though, you also start to make +EV decisions on a more regular basis.

To be fair, I find JQ and JK to also be pretty probable hands. Even with those hands, so many of my outs are counterfieted that a fold was the correct play. Wasn't trying to get too too advanced. Just an example of the thought process behind putting an opp on a range of hands and how that should affect your decision making.

[ProZachNation]

I like it thanks, Ill probaly reread it a few times.

[Fnord]

Me put people on hands too.

So I sit down at my favorite 4/8 game.

UTG tips the waitress, puts his drink on top of his cards and posts a blind straddle.

I have in the Hi-Jack.

2 players call the straddle, I 3-bet, blinds refuse to fold, UTG caps, everyone calls.

6 to the flop and a shit ton of money in the pot.
The flop comes :Tc: :Js:

Blinds check, UTG bets and manages to take a drink without lifting his cards, 2 calls, I raise, blinds fold, UTG-3 bets, 2 folds, I 4-bet...
UTG 5-bets, I 6-bet
UTG 7-bets, I 8-bet
UTG 9-bets, I 10-bet
UTG 11-bets, I 12-bet
UTG 13-bets, I 14-bet
UTG 15-bets, I 16-bet
UTG 17-bets, I 18-bet
UTG 19-bets, I 20-bet
UTG 21-bets, I 22-bet
UTG throws in his last chip and looks at his cards.




UTG flips over and calls me a stupid fish for putting in all that money without a pair. I smile, put out another Franklin and ask the dealer for more chips...

[Pelion]

er......... nh?