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Book: Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker

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  1. #1

    Default Book: Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker

    Just got my copy today (was on back order.) Holy shit man, talk about math intense content. Will post more here as I read....

    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...=UTF8&v=glance
  2. #2
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    Do you think its too numerical?


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  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
    Do you think its too numerical?
    Meh, poker is a game of incomplete information, probabilities and hence numbers.

    There is a lot of discussion of how to win the max from different types of opponents.
  4. #4
    In short, I think this is what HEFAP should have been.

    The pre-flop charts are a little on the weak/tight side, but meh who uses them anyway . Great discusssion on the changing values of hands. AQ and ATo vs T9s.

    The post-flop stuff is solid. Lots of talk about HU post-flop play and playing at short-handed tables.

    Overall, much better organized than HEFAP, less ambiguous and doesn't talk down at all. Will post more tomorrow, have a lot to digest.

    Right now for LHE I think:

    WLLHE (Jones) - the bible for weak/tight play vs the school
    SSH (Miller) - beating the school for the max and better dealing with LAggy opponents
    WtOHP - Short handed and beating thinking players.
    HEFAP - Almost obsolete
    Caro - Playing the player, meta-game and out-of-the-box thinking
  5. #5
    ChezJ's Avatar
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    fnord, can you elaborate on what's wrong with HEFAP? i recently bought the 21st century edition and have been paging through it before bedtime. i know the old edition had some out of date info on the blind structure...
  6. #6
    Chicago_Kid's Avatar
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    Anyone know where that post is of the math proof for all poker drawing odds?

    Someone was nice enough (or bored enough) to work them out, but I cannot seem to find it.

    TY, CK
    "Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"
  7. #7
    euphoricism's Avatar
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    chicago: its in the NL forum, stickied at the top..

    http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=9366
  8. #8
    Chicago_Kid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by euphoricism
    chicago: its in the NL forum, stickied at the top..

    http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=9366
    Yeah, I'm a mow-ron. Thanks, CK
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  9. #9
    *bump*

    since i've heard good things i decided to order it, and received it last night. will give a review when i finish it.
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord



    WLLHE (Jones) - the bible for weak/tight play vs the school
    SSH (Miller) - beating the school for the max and better dealing with LAggy opponents
    WtOHP - Short handed and beating thinking players.
    HEFAP - Almost obsolete
    Caro - Playing the player, meta-game and out-of-the-box thinking

    What is WtOHP short for. I'd like a book for shorthanded games as that is probably the next think I'll give a try.


    LOL guess I need to read the headline of the thread before asking silly questions.

    Anywho Fnord I've PM'd you... you could just respond and say you are not interested if thats it.
  11. #11
    Gatlin Dan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord



    WLLHE (Jones) - the bible for weak/tight play vs the school
    SSH (Miller) - beating the school for the max and better dealing with LAggy opponents
    WtOHP - Short handed and beating thinking players.
    HEFAP - Almost obsolete
    Caro - Playing the player, meta-game and out-of-the-box thinking

    What is WtOHP short for. I'd like a book for shorthanded games as that is probably the next think I'll give a try.


    LOL guess I need to read the headline of the thread before asking silly questions.

    Anywho Fnord I've PM'd you... you could just respond and say you are not interested if thats it.
    it's the book he's talking about. Click the link in the opening post.

    I've been looking for another good limit read. After buying HEFAP (am finishing my second read through now), It was not what I expected. It isn't written well. Too much do this and do that, and not enough about the "why".

    Thanks for the recommendation Fnord. Will be looking forward to further insight on WtOHP.
  12. #12
    does anyone else find it interesting that the back of the book doesn't mention SSH or WLLH at all? ITH is the recommended beginner's book. HEFAP and TOP are listed along with Caro's tells and Middle Limit Hold'em. SS and SS2 are excluded as well.
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by hypermegachi
    does anyone else find it interesting that the back of the book doesn't mention SSH or WLLH at all? ITH is the recommended beginner's book. HEFAP and TOP are listed along with Caro's tells and Middle Limit Hold'em. SS and SS2 are excluded as well.
    Consider the lag time between being written, edited and getting to press. SSH is pretty current stuff.
  14. #14
    Gatlin Dan's Avatar
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    Fnord, have you finished with this? I'm looking for a new book. I will purchase this before HoH2 if you recommend it.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Gatlin Dan
    Fnord, have you finished with this? I'm looking for a new book. I will purchase this before HoH2 if you recommend it.
    WtOHP is a really good middle limit book. However, I just got my copy of HoH2 and it's a pretty darn good tourney book. My only disappointment is that the Heads-Up section didn't address how to deal with horrible players. Pick your poison.
  16. #16
    Gatlin Dan's Avatar
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    I bought HoH primarily for pleasure reading. It's a good book to have in your library. I don't play NL but have given it some thought. I did enjoy the book enough I vowed to buy vol. II when it was released.

    Weighing the odds though, sounds like it will be a good investment. I like the idea of a mathematically intense book for hold 'em.

    Hell, I'll just buy them both and take HoHII to work and leave in my desk for some lunchtime reading. Probably save on shipping through amazon that way as well.
  17. #17
    pokerfanatic's Avatar
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    Should be getting this for x-mas... so i'll report back...
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  18. #18
    Ltrain's Avatar
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    I just finished reading it. It is a good book for analysis on playing your opponents; sandbagging aggressive opponents and when to attack weak ones. The math is strong but not to the point it is beyond the average reader. I also agree it is a good book for transitioning past 2/4 because of the importance of playing your opponent. Now if they can only write about dealing with loose coldcallers taking my button
    "Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Ltrain
    Now if they can only write about dealing with loose coldcallers taking my button
    Table/seat change.
  20. #20
    Its a good book, I recieved it last week and it has a lot of quality stuff in it.
    Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
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  21. #21
    Ltrain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord
    Quote Originally Posted by Ltrain
    Now if they can only write about dealing with loose coldcallers taking my button
    Table/seat change.
    Yep, and at 2/4 there are so many tables it is easy to make the switch. However, at the 3/6 full ring games it takes me longer since there are less tables and a higher waiting list (funny, but it is easier to find a better seat at 3/6 max). Any tips on finding a good table at 3/6 Party Full Ring quickly? Rarely will I get a table of 8 or less with enough time to review player notes to see who is a coldcaller; usually I have only enough time to make sure I have loose passives to my right before the seats fill up.
    "Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
  22. #22
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ltrain
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord
    Quote Originally Posted by Ltrain
    Now if they can only write about dealing with loose coldcallers taking my button
    Table/seat change.
    Yep, and at 2/4 there are so many tables it is easy to make the switch. However, at the 3/6 full ring games it takes me longer since there are less tables and a higher waiting list (funny, but it is easier to find a better seat at 3/6 max). Any tips on finding a good table at 3/6 Party Full Ring quickly? Rarely will I get a table of 8 or less with enough time to review player notes to see who is a coldcaller; usually I have only enough time to make sure I have loose passives to my right before the seats fill up.
    You ever thought about not playing the 3/6 full game?

    The real fish are at the 6 max tables.


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  23. #23
    Ltrain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
    Quote Originally Posted by Ltrain
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord
    Quote Originally Posted by Ltrain
    Now if they can only write about dealing with loose coldcallers taking my button
    Table/seat change.
    Yep, and at 2/4 there are so many tables it is easy to make the switch. However, at the 3/6 full ring games it takes me longer since there are less tables and a higher waiting list (funny, but it is easier to find a better seat at 3/6 max). Any tips on finding a good table at 3/6 Party Full Ring quickly? Rarely will I get a table of 8 or less with enough time to review player notes to see who is a coldcaller; usually I have only enough time to make sure I have loose passives to my right before the seats fill up.
    You ever thought about not playing the 3/6 full game?

    The real fish are at the 6 max tables.
    (Sorry to hijack the post)

    Thanks for the input, I have and will play 3/6 max depending upon the day since 3/6 full can be ultra tight some days, and wackier than 2/4 or even .5/1 for others. However, from prior topics I thought the progression was 3/6, 5/10 full, 3/6- 5/10 max and then up. How does 3/6 (2-3 fish, 2-3 unpredictable wackos, 5 TAGS) compare to 5/10 or 10/20 for full ring games? I remember from some of your prior posts that you were of the opinion 15/30 plays like a 6 max game, but I don't know about the games in between (BTW, I am currently rolled for 5/10, but based on Demi's advice I wanted to show a consistent win rate over 10K hands before trying anything higher than 3/6). Is it a better progression now up the 6 max ladder?
    "Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
  24. #24
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    but based on Demi's advice I wanted to show a consistent win rate over 10K hands before trying anything higher than 3/6). Is it a better progression now up the 6 max ladder?
    My advice has always been if you have the BR, to play as high as comfortably possible. Don't play a 3/6 full game just to prove you can win there unless you have to. The mistake I made, and if i had to do differently, was learn 6 max 3-4 months before I did, but that was before they added 3/6 6 max. I personaly believe EVERYONE should be playing the 3/6 6 max game. There is no better game right now than it, and it runs 24 hours a day.

    The 5/10 full and 10/20 full games are crap; the 5/10 6 max the guys are still complete idiots and are just a tad more aggressive than the 3/6 6 max crowd. The 10/20 6 max game is a different beast, and you could seriously bypass it to go straight to 15/30. If you can beat the 10/20 6 max game though, I believe you can beat any level.


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