A hand history without any cards

[Fnord]

$100 NL at your favorite fishing hole.

Weak pre-flop loose player limps, folded to my SB. I have two cards and complete. Tight BB checks.

Flop is 3 cards.

I bet $3...

[Lukie]

I find myself pulling similar moves in these kinds of situations. Provided that your reads on your opponents are correct and you have been playing a passive SB, I like this move. Knowing the texture of the flop always helps.

When I find myself playing 'without cards', it's generally in position against a predicitable opponent. Just thought I'd throw that out there. I'm interested in seeing some discussion on this thread.

[Fnord]

Weak pre-flop loose player limps, folded to my SB. I have two cards and raise to $3. Tight BB folds, limper calls.

Flop is 3 cards.

I bet $4...

[r8ed]

Scenario two seems like more EV.

[pgil]

definite raise in this situation. it removes the BB from contention so he cant flop a hand, and it gets more money into the pot pf, which is usually the only place where the weak player is going to be investing much of anything.

[Laeelin]

I prefer two as well... make the set hunter pay for his crimes

[SteveO]

First line is obviously safer but will not make you as much as line #2.

Pre frop raise is usually a pre-requisite for the continuation bet to be successful, so it is much more likely that he will go away. And assuming that he does go away you win more because you built the pot preflop with the raise. So you win more $ and your "move" is more likely to work in Line #2 so it's WIN WIN.

Also, in Line #2 if he plays back at you on the flop you can confidently make a fold (but I would look at my cards before I folded, hey you never know).

Line #1 there is not as much incentive to make him go away because you did not raise so continuation bet will likly fail more times than not at least compared to #2.

[Silly String]

First line is obviously safer but will not make you as much as line #2.

I completely disagree. The first line is suicide. Why bet random cards into an unraised pot. The flop texture would have to justify this bet and still you are betting into two players. Either of which our read tells us we have to give up the hand to a re-raise/call.

I can't say I haven't done example #2, but I don't like getting into pissing matches from the SB. Your read on the limper better be spot on. I like this move a lot more from the button.

[Gareth]

hmmm...

with opponent being weak loose preflop - raising him isn't going to tell you much about his hand but at least it gets rid of the BB - increasing your chance of taking this down on the flop.

With betting first your asking both players or just the one if they have caught anything on the flop - BB had a chance to raise in the first Hand but declined so he is more than likely going to fold if he doesn't hit on the flop and same for the other player he had a chance to open raise but instead just limped so he is just looking to hit something on the flop or he is folding to a bet.

[SteveO]

[quote="Silly String"]

First line is obviously safer but will not make you as much as line #2.

I completely disagree. The first line is suicide. Why bet random cards into an unraised pot. The flop texture would have to justify this bet and still you are betting into two players. Either of which our read tells us we have to give up the hand to a re-raise/call.

Not suicide. You are playing the player not the cards, and the example presumes you are betting no matter what hits the board. Texture of flop is irrelevant because you are representing a hit. It is an unraised pot so neither BB or limper has much of a hand until they indicate otherwise. The less you bet the less you are risking early in the hand and you are buying the pot cheaper although the liklihood of this play is less likly to succeed without the PF raise.

I think the point of the examples is how a subtle PF raise can entirely change the outcome of a hand regardless of your hole cards or the texture of the board.

[Silly String]

I think the point of the examples is how a subtle PF raise can entirely change the outcome of a hand regardless of your hole cards or the texture of the board.

I completely agree. I just disagree with your assertion that the first line is safer. The smaller chance of an opponent fold for line #1 creates a more dangerous/costly situation. If you are betting regardless of situation, a c-bet into one other player is much better/safer than an EP naked bet into 2 other players.

We both seem to agree line #2 is the way to go, so I guess it doesn't matter how we get there. Risk/Reward or safest play.

[EricE]

#1 nets $2 X % of the time where X = % of time both players miss enough to fold right out (no draw, not willing to play back)
What is X here?

#2 nets $2 Y% of the time when we get all folds to our raise.
Also nets $4 Z% of the time when we get a fold to our C-Bet.
[I am not going to consider the times the BB calls]

So our profit depends upon what we think X,Y, and Z are.
Guesses, please post your refinements.
X = 50%
so #1 nets us $1 in the long run.

Y = 70%, Z = 20%
So #2 nets us .7*2+.2*4 = $2.12 in the long run.

The percents are total guess and largely affect the outcome.

[Fnord]

A reasonable guess is that players miss the flop and fold 2/3 of the time or so. Tight players will drop pairs and such to aggressor or dump when they fail to make a set. So figure more like 75-85%ish....

[EricE]

Well, if we adjust X up to 80% and leave Y but adjust Z up to 80% of 30%:
X = 80% individually but we have two players so .8*.8 = .64
so #1 nets us 2*.64 = $1.28 in the long run.

Y = 70%, Z = 24% (80% of 30%)
So #2 nets us .7*2+.24*4 = $2.36 in the long run.
[in actuality the $2.36 would be cut down by the % of times the BB calls but that % should be real small]

The profit comes largely from isolating to one player.

[Silly String]

At Pokerstars 25NL my experienced guess:
X = 40%
y= 60%
Z= 67%

Of course this is image dependent. A LAG will get more calls than a TAG, making the situation less profitable.
I also am not counting Fnord's reads. My guess is vs. two random opponents. If anything my numbers are skewed in my favor because I try these moves at opportune times, not random times.