Marginal Odds

[DogOnMySide]

Party $25NL

Reads... not a lot on the specific players, but quite a few Ax's have been shown down. People are playing quite a few hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($14.82)
SB ($19.90)
Hero ($19.60)
UTG ($12.20)
UTG+1 ($24.75)
UTG+2 ($29.85)
MP1 ($10.88)
MP2 ($30.38)
MP3 ($48.40)
CO ($28.77)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 7. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 3 folds, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 9, 6, 8 (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, UTG+2 folds, CO raises to $2, Button calls $2, SB folds,

At this stage I almost folded but I figured 8 outs to the OESD, and 3 kings left which *might* be outs...
Pot is $5.75 and i need to call $2... approximately 3:1... so i thought i just about have odds here to call. Thinking about it now, I'm not so sure.

Hero calls $2, UTG calls $1.75.

Turn: ($9.50) K (4 players)

Well I've hit a possible out although not an ideal one. I feel I have to bet to try and win it right here. I'd also like comments on that decision please.

Hero bets $4, UTG folds, CO calls $4, Button calls $12.57 (All-In),

Hero: ??????

Now I pretty much think I have 10 solid outs... the 8 for the straight and 2 kings for the set. Can't guarantee the set will win, but in this case I'd be happy to draw to it given some of the hands i've seen shown down.

I made my decision more on feel than on calculations but the pot size is currently $30.07 and I have to call $8.57... so it's about 3:1 again.

Results in white below:
Hero folds, CO calls $8.57.

River: ($38.64) Q

Final Pot: $38.64

CO has 7c Jc (high card, king).
Button has 6d 6h (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: Button wins $38.64.


So... should I have pushed that 3:1 edge and pushed on that hand? I would have lost but... thats not the point really, is it?

Would have made a killing if i'd hit!

I dunno... i'm reading Sklansky at the moment and he's so ODDSODDSODDSODDSODDS focused that i'm thinking in a slightly different way.

It's not the most exciting hand but hopefully there's something to discuss.

I need to make myself a "common odds" crib sheet until i can remember them all

[silverfist]

I don't think in this case you should have called. From the betting, it looks like you're facing a draw and a set. Since the only real draw on the board is the straight, the CO has a 7. Probably someone would not push with just two pair, so the button has a set. So, none of your outs are really outs. The straight will be a tie with anyone who has a 7, and trip kings would give the set a full house.

You made the right decision to bet on the turn. All of a sudden you had top pair, and could easily have had the best hand. When the CO called and the button pushed, they were telling you that you didn't. Good fold.

[PokerPatNEU]

The K outs are probably dirty because it looks like your opponent can fill up a boat if you make your set. You are getting a little less than 3:1 to make a call thats a little worse than 3:1 against you, this would be a -EV call if you give your strait outs are the only outs that will help you. However, if CO calls the aditional 8$ as well, you are looking at pot odds that are marginally in your favor.

[DogOnMySide]

However, if CO calls the aditional 8$ as well, you are looking at pot odds that are marginally in your favor.

That's a good point, and one i often forget about.

So mathematically speaking if somehow i'd known he was going to call then i should have called myself.

HOWEVER... if i'd known he was going to call then he must have a 7 and i would have been betting to split that pot and hence would have been getting bollocks odds.

If i'd known that he knew that i know what i know....

[thirteen]

On the flop, I think you need to assume that a K will not win it for you. So assuming that your OESD will win, you have 8 outs and are about 5 to 1 to hit this on the turn. You're getting less than 3 to 1 on your money. I think this is a clear fold on the flop.

[Miffed22001]

i see nothing wrong with how you thought this hand out, although you should probably detect a made/strong but beatable hand on the turn, despite the fact you caught an out which therefore forces the fold imo no matter the number of outs. The flop is more touchy. The reraise and then call suggest a drawer and a mad hand, possibly a set, maybe two pair, tpgk possibly even a flopped straight. but whats importnat here is that id think too i was drawing, just about with odds, to the best hand therefore i make the call. but again you cant really call the turn. the push says two pair/set to me and therefore fold.

[bdawg56kg]

I prefer to not even chase OESD's when hitting your draw means that it puts 4 to a straight on the board. If oppoents have half a brain they will not pay you off with their 2 pair or set. Plus, you are out of position, making this a clear fold to me. I would probably check/fold the flop or bet 0.75 on the flop and fold to anything other than a minraise.

[TalentedTom]

Examine the texture of this flop 689 you have the seven, if a ten or 5 comes you hit sure, but its very OBVIOUS someone chasing a straight hit, your hand has almost no deception value if you hit you must make a value bet making up for the odds you didnt get, your EV is not very high here. Bad players also may realize that if someone was chasing a straight they hit and they may not pay you off

My 2 cents on the flop play are : with so many people calling, there is another man with 7X as well and fishies will not fold straight draws

If you are chasing a draw, its important to have position if you hit your straight on the river, anyone who DOSNT have a straight including myself would just check this down, and being UTG after flop you have a very difficult task ahead of you making this a profitable play.

Taking the initiative on the turn is a play I do not like, when someone does a pot sized bet against 6 other players, their hand is stronger than TPTK, id say he hit 2 pair with so many people in this pot, a pair does not have the same value as it would in an isolated pot.


"So... should I have pushed that 3:1 edge and pushed on that hand? I would have lost but... thats not the point really, is it? "

I think the biggest leak here is chasing a draw while UTG, unless you are in control of the pot (semi bluffing) its time to fold-em. Dont worry too much about odds this is NL, ask yourself, if I hit my hand how much can I win, in this particular case he had trips so he prob woulda called anyway but most cases its time to fold UTG it it very difficult to make money on draws especially non deceptive ones.

Betting $4 into an almost $8 pot will not accomplish what you want it to do its too small of a bet, the fold equity if just not there. What that bet accomplishes is making you officially pot commited, there is no bet he can make that will get you off this hand, you said so yourself so think about what your opponent is be thinking when he is faced with this descion: $4 to win a $12 pot, almost no one will lay this down unless their initial bet was a complete bluff and if he does indeed reraise you MUST CALL. Only options here to me would be take the initiative to move all in or check. At least with the all in bet hands like 2 pair may fold. So you have some fold equity with this play, hands that beat you will still call but you give them the hard descion you. No-one is going to fold a winning hand to a 1/2 pot sized bet and if they reraise your gotta call anyway.

[DogOnMySide]

Fasinating post, Tom. Thanks. I might go through some of it:

its very OBVIOUS someones chasing a straight

Yes, i guess so. In which case the player with the set was playing badly by giving me reasonable odds to call.

Dont worry too much about odds this is NL, ask yourself, if I hit my hand how much can I win

With that in mind lets look at this next hand. I played it last night before I read this.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($40.30)
Button ($18.70)
SB ($3.90)
Hero ($21.78)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($0.45)
UTG+2 ($29.15)
MP1 ($23.42)
MP2 ($10.69)
MP3 ($25.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 6. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Button calls $0.25, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 7, 8, 7 (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.6, MP2 calls $0.60, MP3 calls $0.60, Button raises to $1.2, SB folds, Hero calls $0.60, MP2 calls $0.60, MP3 calls $0.60.

Turn: ($6.05) J (4 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets $3, Hero folds, MP2 calls $3, MP3 calls $3.

River: ($15.05) 4 (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets $5, MP2 calls $5, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: $25.05

Results in white below:
MP2 has Th Js (two pair, jacks and sevens).
Button has 4s As (two pair, sevens and fours).
Outcome: MP2 wins $25.05.

Horrible when you see the absolute crap they were playing, but I just can't see how calling that is NOT a leak.

I appreciate that if I knew the 2 players after me were just going to call then my odds go from 3:1 up to 5:1 which is correct for the call...

I think i'm playing too "oddsy" for $25NL tables.

[DogOnMySide]

Funny.

I just posted that (above), finished my coffee and went for a crap (too much information? probably)

Anyway I'm reading Sklansky's Theory of Poker at the moment, so I sat down (nice mental image there?) opened it up and started reading the page i'd bookmarked. Chapter Six - Effective Odds.

Sklansky says:

Many players make a classic mistake: They know their chances of improving and they compare those chances to the odds the pot is offering them right now. Such a comparison is off the mark as the players are going to have to put more money into the pot in the future, and they must take that money into account.

All of which sort of seems directly relevant to these hands. If your 4 or 5:1 is good on the turn then barring some crazy overbet which makes complete nonsense of the odds, you should be there for the river as well because of the Effective Odds.

Seems to me more relevant to Limit than No Limit, but at low stakes on a friday night with fish who call off $8 with bottom pair then perhaps a lot of it carries over!

[TalentedTom]

Perhaps against the worst of them they will call down the very obvious hits, but if a lot of your revenue is coming from this, if you decide to move up a level or two people will no longer be making these calls and you will find yourself not making money and wondering why. In general this is a marginal play at best, a good general theory which is in Slansky's book and in just about every decent holdem book is avoid situations where you are a big underdog or a small favorate, this is one of them.