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But also, if I intend on calling any bet on the river, why not just push AI with the hopes that they fold...or is that too murky of a situation since I may be up against a made hand?
If he has the flush and you bet: You lose $2.55
If he has the flush and you check turn and call river: You lose $2.55 most of the time, but enough times you lose less. Maybe he checks to try and induce a bluff, maybe he tries to milk less out of you.
He has one spade and you push: Does he call without odds?
If he does, you win the pot +2.55 80 percent of the time. If he doesn't, you win what's in the pot right now 100 percent of the time.
He has one spade and you check turn/call river: Does he bluff a missed flush here ever? Often? Always?
Alot of people will bet this when you show weakness on the turn, so IF he would fold without the flush on the turn and IF he might bluff on the river, then you make money here than you wouldn't make without it.
So I guess the advantages of checking will come only if the guy will a) bluff his missed draws or b) not go AI on the river with a made hand. Also, you Definitely save money if a fourth spade comes.
So, maybe I'm wrong. I am wrong alot, but that's what I'd do.
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