What's the move here?

[dalecooper]

This happened at a short-handed table, but it could apply to any game. There are three players involved, all sitting next to each other, and I am last to act. The first player has an average stack of $100, the next has a short stack of $16, and I have a big stack of $180. A couple hands earlier, I busted the short stack for $90 when my pocket kings held up against his pocket queens. Shorty is very aggressive and has been raising a lot pre-flop, which leads me to believe that he'll be even more aggressive as a short stack. I have no read at all on Mr. Average, except that he doesn't raise that much and seems to prefer a standard raise of 2xBB when he does.

I am dealt pocket 9s. Mr. Average raises 2xBB, making it $3 to go. Shorty re-raises to $15 (for some reason not quite going all in). Here's the first decision: call/fold/raise? I am 85% certain I have a better hand than Shorty. I put him on ace-anything or a small pocket pair. If it were just me and him, I'd of course raise him all-in. However, I have to think about Mr. Average acting after me. Will he call or raise if I call/raise here?

My initial reaction was to fold and forget my nines. I didn't want to raise because I had no read on the initial raiser. Eventually I settled on a call, which in retrospect I don't like (I should have remembered Harrington's discussion of the Sandwich Effect). My thinking was that the initial raiser would let me take out Shorty if his hand was mediocre, or he might flat call with something like AK/AQ and employ a teamwork strategy with me to take out Shorty (which is leftover tournament thinking from three SnG's yesterday, and was dumb on my part to expect).

Anyway, Mr. Average comes over the top to make it $40 to go. Shorty calls all in for a buck. Now it's $25 to me. Second decision: call/raise/fold? (This one I think was easy enough: I folded, assuming Mr. Average had big pockets, and that it was not profitable for me to chase a set of nines for that large of a raise.)

Should I have folded the nines earlier? Why or why not? Should I have called the $25 re-raise?

[Rondavu]

With no read you have to fold the initial raise from shorty. In a tournament I might go all in, but in a cash game it's a bad situation to be in. It's raise or fold, and I lean towards fold. Your hand simply isn't strong enough to overcome your positional disadvantage in that betting round.

Let's put it this way. Even raising or pushing here is a gamblers play given the possibility of a three way race holding 99. That's really not what cash game is all about. I think the least desirable decision is the one you made. In a raise or fold scenerio, you decided to call. No way. Do you really want to be holding 99 three way when the initial preflop raiser bets right out into you on a board that will be ahead of 9's?

It sounds like you got too emotionally involved after a small stack pounded the pot. That is a great opportunity to race with 99 since you're almost certainly ahead of him. The problem is the original preflop raiser was cockblocking you. Fold it this time.

I think sometimes people make decisions based on not feeling weak, when the right decision has the look of weakness, but very little to do with actual weakness.

[journey075]

With no read you have to fold the initial raise from shorty. In a tournament I might go all in, but in a cash game it's a bad situation to be in. It's push or fold, and I lean towards fold. Your hand simply isn't strong enough to overcome your positional disadvantage in that betting round.

Let's put it this way. Even pushing here is a gamblers play given the possibility of a three way race holding 99. That's really not what cash game is all about. I think the least desirable decision is the one you made. In a push or fold scenerio, you decided to call. No way. Do you really want to be holding 99 three way when the initial preflop raiser bets right out into you on a board that will be ahead of 9's?

It sounds like you got too emotionally involved after a small stack pounded the pot. That is a great opportunity to race with 99 since you're almost certainly ahead of him. The problem is the original preflop raiser was cockblocking you. Fold it this time.

tell me why calling is such a bad idea here. i dont see anything wrong with it personally. you act behind him and with a 2bb raise, i dont expect him to come over the top like he did. i expect 3 to the flop and if you hit hes paying you off huge cause you got position on him.


i play it the same honestly.

[Rondavu]

tell me why calling is such a bad idea here. i dont see anything wrong with it personally. you act behind him and with a 2bb raise, i dont expect him to come over the top like he did. i expect 3 to the flop and if you hit hes paying you off huge cause you got position on him.


i play it the same honestly.

If you want to play this hand for implied odds at such a price, then go ahead. I'm not doing it for two reasons. It's too expensive, and if the original raiser just calls preflop instead of going over the top to get you out, then he feels too weak to pay off a set of nines deep.

[journey075]

i guess my play just assumes that anybody who does 2bb raises has a drawing hand and isnt calling the $15 anyway. if i feel 99 to be good enough HU against the maniac, i think id call. maybe i need to brush up on 3-way pots though.

[drmcboy]

As you say I think it's raise or fold. If we give average tighty A10-AK or a PP bigger than you, he has to call with most of those hands if you call also, so you're either a flip (or worse, may be in against 4 overs here) or dominated. If you raise I'd assume he's folding anything except KK AA.
But you're still likely dealing with one over in Shorty's hand, and while you're a favorite the risk that you get pwned by tighty here seems greater than the edge you have over shorty. You're only winning 20 bucks or so and you need to risk at least 40 to do it.

[Element187]

rondavu hit this on the nose. you dont want to be caught in a raising war .. harrington calls it a sandwich effect, i call it a raise war.

you should be glad the short stack didnt have more in chips or you would be facing another raise and reraise.

since this hand is going three way, you need something alot stronger then pocket 9's

calling a 40$ raise with pocket 9's, you both are goin to need at least 400 dollars to cover the 9 out of 10 times you wiff the 9 on the flop.

so i would call the raise if both you and mister average tighty had 400$ stacks.

[Rondavu]

A good situation with a pocket pair is having someone raise with a high pocket preflop and then that person with the high pocket gets stop gapped by a bunch of calls with no raises. You get into a 5 or 6 handed situation where the high pocket is given no opportunity to further isolate with more raises before the flop.

The minute an option opens up for further raises preflop by a person you suspect as strong, then you need to run for the hills with an implied odds type hand if you're caught in the middle. Granted 99 is a borderline callable hand for it's ability to hold up unimproved as well. That's what makes it a tough call for our hero here. The deciding factor has to be position and percieved opposing strength. I think clearly in this case those two items scream fold IMHO. I respect a call though. It's not entirely horrible.

[dalecooper]

Bear in mind, my position post-flop would have been great, as I was last to act. It was only before the flop, with the initial raiser open for a re-raise, that I was in bad shape.

More and more though I think I should have just folded. I left myself wide open to be sideswiped by the initial raiser, whether or not he had a big pocket pair (although it turned out he did, in fact, with pocket queens). My lack of fear of Shorty was accurate also, as he had only A7 of diamonds and lost the hand.

[bair]

just fold preflop, not only is 99 a bad hand, its a terrible hand 3way, especially with 2 raises before you. you said yourself that the first guy "hardly ever raises." he raised, it got reraised, what incentive do you have to call, you cant really expect to win with 99 unless you hit a set.. and what are you gonna do once you see a flop and he bets into you hard when 2 overcards hit the flop? you're going to fold, what a waste of money. theres no point in risking all these chips when you are 0% pot committed, especially with a not so great hand.

[dalecooper]

just fold preflop, not only is 99 a bad hand, its a terrible hand 3way, especially with 2 raises before you.

99 is hardly a bad hand. Just to run a few test scenarios past you:

- I am the favorite against AKo and AQ suited, winning 43% of the time
- I am a heavy favorite against AK and Ax suited, winning 50% of the time
- I am a modest dog against AK and one overpair, winning 19% of the time (vs jacks or queens) or 21% (vs aces or kings)
- I am a heavy favorite against AK and a low pair, winning 45% of the time

Consider that I had the short stack on a low pair or Ax (he in fact held Ax) and the other guy on a random premium hand: AJ-AK, KQ, or a pocket pair higher than tens. Just by virtue of the number of ways you can be dealt AK-AJ, it was more likely that he held something like that than that he held a high pocket pair. So odds were good - better than even money - that I was actually the favorite on this hand, based solely on the pre-flop action and my reads on the players. The only thing that was really problematic was that I had incomplete information on the initial raiser, and he was acting after me because of the re-raise. The Sandwich Effect.

you said yourself that the first guy "hardly ever raises." he raised, it got reraised, what incentive do you have to call, you cant really expect to win with 99 unless you hit a set..

I disagree totally here. If the initial raiser folds (possible) or flat calls the re-raise (somewhat likely), I can easily put him on overcards like AK/AQ. If the flop comes out with no cards higher than a ten, or especially no cards higher than an 8, I'm very comfortable going in for all my chips at that point, and thinking I'm probably ahead in the hand. It's obviously better if I flop a set, but I'm not clinging to that like a life preserver.

As far as the meaning of the raise and re-raise, I already explained that I don't see Shorty as having any real hand. It's a transparent bluff. The range of raising hands for Mr. Average is standard: two high cards, high pockets. He's more likely to have two high cards just based on the frequency of two high cards being dealt. His raise gives nothing away; I don't know what he has. I'm concerned only that he will re-raise, with or without a high pocket pair.

and what are you gonna do once you see a flop and he bets into you hard when 2 overcards hit the flop? you're going to fold, what a waste of money.

2 overcards are not going to hit on every flop. That's a worst case scenario, very obviously. Half the time there won't even be one overcard. And if the overcard that comes is a jack or ten, I'm going to play my hand aggressively - maybe not all-in aggressively, but I'm going to at least put the first raiser to the test.

theres no point in risking all these chips when you are 0% pot committed, especially with a not so great hand.

I'm always 0% pot committed; the money in the pot is no longer mine whether I put it there or not. The only question is, there's an $18 pot up for grabs, and I may have the best hand... should I go after it? The risk is that the first raiser will claim the pot for himself and use his temporary positional advantage to force me out. By flat-calling, I am letting him know that he can force me out, whether or not he has a first-rate hand (even though he in fact did have one).

So understand - I came to the same conclusion you did (that I should have just folded), but not for the same reasons at all. Nines play fine in a 3-way pot if you're willing to accept my reads on the other two players involved. If I could have gone to the flop without any risk of player 1 re-raising, I would gladly have done so. The only problem here was the possibility of player 1 re-raising me, with or without the goods.

[straight167]

Maybe you should have pushed all in before the "mr. average."

let's just say 2 people go go all in before you and u r holding a pocket pair...let's say 6s. I would call as long as I could absorb the chip loss. Some people might say you should fold blah blah blah. When 2 people go all in that tells me that they both have AK, AQ, AJ, face cards. If they have the same cards, they are less likely to hit their top pair. You already have a made hand.

I think mr average reraised to get you out of the hand. I doubt he had pocket.

[Greedo017]

I think its a close tie between calling and folding here. pushing is the worst move imo, and I don't really like raising either, i guess a minraise might work but if you went to 45, half your stack would be in there on 99: true, you'd get ak/aq out of there, but is it really worth 45 dollars to tell if your opponent has aa/kk/qq? what if he called and the flop was favorable? i think a raise is just asking for trouble here. I think a call is ok, but i really think you have to fold here. The short stacks raise really messed you up, because it made the information you need more expensive to get than its really worth.

[journey075]

I think its a close tie between calling and folding here. pushing is the worst move imo, and I don't really like raising either, i guess a minraise might work but if you went to 45, half your stack would be in there on 99: true, you'd get ak/aq out of there, but is it really worth 45 dollars to tell if your opponent has aa/kk/qq? what if he called and the flop was favorable? i think a raise is just asking for trouble here. I think a call is ok, but i really think you have to fold here. The short stacks raise really messed you up, because it made the information you need more expensive to get than its really worth.

agreed. this is certainly not a raise/fold opportunity.

[dalecooper]

Maybe you should have pushed all in before the "mr. average."

let's just say 2 people go go all in before you and u r holding a pocket pair...let's say 6s. I would call as long as I could absorb the chip loss. Some people might say you should fold blah blah blah. When 2 people go all in that tells me that they both have AK, AQ, AJ, face cards. If they have the same cards, they are less likely to hit their top pair. You already have a made hand.

Ummm... you're crazy. If two people go all in ahead of me in a cash game (not a tournament), I assume one of them, if not both, has jacks or better. I don't just assume it, I know it's true like 90% of the time. It's very rare that you see two people all in pre-flop and neither of them has a hand better than pocket nines (or worse, pocket sixes). I think your approach is just begging to throw money away.

I think mr average reraised to get you out of the hand. I doubt he had pocket.

Nope, he had queens. The nice thing about Shorty going all-in was that this went to showdown and I got to analyze the hand more completely after the fact.

[dsaxton]

I'd fold preflop. It's already becoming too expensive to see the flop with this hand, and the only way you'll be able to expect a sizable pot to compensate for this cost is from the player with a larger stack, and I would expect him to reraise and put the short-stack all-in if he's strong enough to pay off a set.

[straight167]

Maybe you should have pushed all in before the "mr. average."

let's just say 2 people go go all in before you and u r holding a pocket pair...let's say 6s. I would call as long as I could absorb the chip loss. Some people might say you should fold blah blah blah. When 2 people go all in that tells me that they both have AK, AQ, AJ, face cards. If they have the same cards, they are less likely to hit their top pair. You already have a made hand.

Ummm... you're crazy. If two people go all in ahead of me in a cash game (not a tournament), I assume one of them, if not both, has jacks or better. I don't just assume it, I know it's true like 90% of the time. It's very rare that you see two people all in pre-flop and neither of them has a hand better than pocket nines (or worse, pocket sixes). I think your approach is just begging to throw money away.

I think mr average reraised to get you out of the hand. I doubt he had pocket.

Nope, he had queens. The nice thing about Shorty going all-in was that this went to showdown and I got to analyze the hand more completely after the fact.

yes i am crazy...

[ensign_lee]

This might go against the grain, but I raise here. Not yet knowing mr. Average has QQ, I'd like to take this heads up against Mr. Shorty. If Mr. Average raises my raise, well then crap...I guess I have to fold, but not otherwise.

You've already established that calling was the wrong thing to do, so I won't go into that. Honestly, before you told me what Mr. average had, I was inclided to think he had two high cards, and that a raise would force him out of the hand. I also don't give shorty credit for anything. high cards at best, undercards to my 99 at worst. Certainly nothing that dominates me, anyway.

Anyway, that's what I think. Keep in mind, I tend to take risks a little bit more often than most. I don't fold sets...ever. I always try to get all my chips in somehow on the flop with either an OESFD or overs+flush draw, etc. Here's what I think. :P

[Sed]

Mr. Average's re-raise doesn't seem like an isolation play... the raise was too weak. The implied odds aren't there since averages stack is already 40% in the hand. I like the fold unless you have him pegged as maniacal aggressive.

- sed

[straight167]

plus queens arent that strong. i know someone who folded queens because someone pushed all in and it was around $1xx to call.

[jmontis]

$25 to call with 99? That is a terrible decision to call or raise here...

[Miffed22001]

I think your initial mistake has got to be just calling the short stack. Showing strength here surely makes mr average think twice unless hes got a high pp hand. Then your going to be left with hardly any options but to commit your stack and pray. Personally unless i had a top pp (and that aint 9s) i dont get involved here which is a b*tch considering how good your hand is preflop. You've screwed the short stack let some1 else finish him otherwise here it might be the end of your stack.
The problem with good but not nut pps for me is how to play them preflop not how to play them post flop. This was a definate get out scenario without a top hand, unless of course you REALLY want to gamble.