Getting trapped with TPGK - when should I fold?

[DimitriT]

I find myself getting trapped too often with TPTK or TPGK by someone with a straight or a set. Typically they have position or will slowplay the flop. This is a .50/1 9 player game on stars and I will usually bet the flop around $3-5 (either to start or to a check), get called, bet the turn $7-10 and get called again.

Clearly the opp has something at this point or he is on some draw and has either connected or missed. I will typically repeat my turn bet if I feel he missed or will check if I feel he hit.

The problem is that the opp will ofcourse raise me or bet me at this point as well. The question is when do I call and when do I fold. Most of the solid plrs at this level don't seem to bluff too often since the typical passive plr will call them down. I have seen some bluffing though (a missed draw) but I can't say for sure how common it is.

I'm interested in people's approach to this situation.

[arkana]

There are so many things that you need to consider here, only thing that will help is experience really:

(a) what possible starting hands justify his preflop call and flop call (keeping in mind what type of player he is and what hands he play and what the flop texture is)
(b) how many players saw the flop, the more players the more likely it is that someone hit 2 pair or better.
(c) what is your table image, have you been involved in a lot of pots recently or do you have a tight image?
(d) how many outs do you have if he does have a set or two pair? (in the case of a set you are most likely drawing dead)
(e) is he the type of player who would protect his set or two pair if there is a draw on the board or would he take the risk of you drawing out on him in the hopes of getting more money from you?

Those were the first things that came to mind...

I sometimes check the turn and try to get a better read by looking at his turn bet, sometimes that really callable bet on the turn when you slow down means that he does have the goods and he wants to get you more pot commited whereas a quick check behind will most likely mean a draw (in which case you are giving a free card but thats just the risk you take) and you can bet the river again if a non scare card falls.

Just my thoughts...

[DimitriT]

Arkana,

thanks for the great reply..

If I check the turn and he bets, I am left with the following analysis:

what draws do I have to improve over a set or two pair (assuming no pairs on the board for the boat) and am I getting any pot odds on the
bet?

If I have few outs, should I just fold my TPTK or play the river? On
hands where I call this bet (usually a $4 or $5 bet), I feel I get pot committed and wind up calling the river bet (which is usually $7 to $10).

If I fold these hands, how will it affect my table image? If I call?

[arkana]

If you check the turn and he bets its decision time, if you think he has 2 pair or a set you have to either

- Lay it down. Dont be so worried about your table image, you can use the weak image to your advantage too. Next time you flop a set bet the flop and check the turn and let him try and push you off the pot. Generally most players arent that observant and its mostly a case of "I dont want to fold because then I look weak in MY eyes" and not so much in their opponent's eyes.

- Call if you have a strong draw (flush or a straight) even though you might not be getting the correct odds you have huge implied odds and huge opponent tilting odds Add to the equation the times where he is semi bluffing and this could become a profitable play (or at least not too bad).

If you are unsure or you put him on a draw (and you dont have a strong draw):

-Raise him (check raising actually because you checked first and then he bet), this is better than calling this bet and calling on the river since he might actually fold here - more bang for your buck. Check raising is a very strong move and if he reraises you here you just know you are beat, in the face of a check raise there are few players who have the balls to call or reraise that on a bluff. If he doesnt fold you should be finished with the hand.

Make your decision on the turn, by putting a lot of pressure on him on the turn he has to reveal the strength of his hand there which makes your decision easier. If you just call then you still dont know where you stand and you will have to call a river bet too. I have more respect for a person who can make a laydown on the turn based on his read than someone who just check calls down to the river.

Oh one more thing, this is a good example of how important position is. Can you see how much easier this hand would be to play if you had position on him?

[buttonAA]

sorry to be such a newb, but I see this al the time here and still have no idea what it is:
TPTK or TPGK
please tell me what these acronyms stand for.

[arkana]

TPTK: Top Pair Top Kicker (ie AK with flop K92)
TPGK: Top Pair Good Kicker (ie KQ with flop QT7)

[buttonAA]

thank you, now I can continue with my learning

[Element187]

dont be afraid to lay down TPTK.. usually if someone is reraising the preflop raiser, usually they have the goods.

i probably tend to give people more respect then i should i guess.

[DimitriT]

I think what I will try and do is get enough information early on to avoid having to pay more in the later betting rounds.

A typical scenario:

I have KQ and the flop is: 9Q7 with 3 of us limping and me in middle
position.

I'm checked to.

I'll bet $3 and get a call and a fold. Here I start putting
together a theory on what he's got. Is it the TJ, the QA or does he
have a set? Two pair seems unlikely since on this tight table nobody
goes in with Q9.

Next card is a 6.

With $7 in the pot I will typically bet out $5. Should I check?
A check may tell me he is on the draw. I would expect a bet if
he had the set or TPTK.

Let's say he bets $5. He could have the draw and still bet out to
disguise his hand but that's unlikely (especially a $5 bet). More likely
he had TPTK or the set.

Here I will likely fold QK if the player has been turning over the goods
in previous hands. Althought I would wonder why he would bet QA
and no PFR? You still sometimes see this on a super tight table.
A good player will try to get action on AQ by limping in, but usually
its a PFR.

I think I may just call a $5 bet here. Is that smart? Should I fold it?

How's my logic so far?

Next card is the 2. The draw is over so I can now lay down a bet for
what may be a set of 7s or 9s.

I'll typically bet $7 here. The pot will sit at $17.

With a set he is likely to raise me. With TPTK I can expect to get
called.

He raises me another $5.

I fold.

[journey075]

as your reads and game improves, a good way to think about whether or not you should fold is a purely mathematical one.

if there is $70 in a pot and your opponent bets $30, you have to call $30 to win $100. if youre not sure you have the best hand, do you think that you are more than a 30% favorite to win?if you think that its even money (50/50) to win, id call it every day. over time (as your reads improve) this will be a profitable move.

i say this becaue im not sure how you folded KQ to a $5 raise with 20some in the pot. i wouldnt be that sure that he had me beat. its worth calling imo.

[DimitriT]

as your reads and game improves, a good way to think about whether or not you should fold is a purely mathematical one.

I'm all for math (I have a masters degree in computer science) so I like your analysis. I have yet to figure out exactly what the percentage of wins is for something like the above example. Is it really 30% or more like 15%. I'm guessing 5-10% of the time I may be up against a missed draw bluff. I've been able to pick a few of those off the last week so it does happen. I'm guessing another 5-10% are just loose plrs. I'm hoping to detect these as well as my read gets better.