A couple of live hands

[TylerK]

Live hands from Foxwoods this weekend. $1/$2 NLHE.

Hand 1:
Weak-tightie raises from MP, I am in the SB with AA. I have not shown down a hand yet, but have won a couple of pots without showing. Previously, MP called a 25xBB reraise after she raised PF, and has been raising strong hands. Field folds to me, my action?

Hand 2:
10xBB raise from EP/MPish, and an immediate call. I am the button with KK and a stack of about 120xBB. CO raises all-in for about 30xBB. I...?

Hand 3 (this is the really interesting one):
Minraise from somewhere in early position and several cold callers. I am in the SB with AJo and call. BB (a solid player who has taken a few beats and may or may not be steaming) raises to 8xBB. Field folds to me and BB tells someone in EP that he has KQ before I complete my action. I believe him. I had intended to fold, but I call instead. Flop comes JTx. I think, then make somewhere around a pot-sized bet. BB immediately reraises all-in and has me covered. For various reasons I am no longer 100% sure of his holding (estimate somewhere around 70% certainty now), but I am still 100% sure he did not realize there was still a player to act when he announced it. There's a whole lot to think about here, thoughts?

[a500lbgorilla]

Live hands from Foxwoods this weekend. $1/$2 NLHE.

Hand 1:
Weak-tightie raises from MP, I am in the SB with AA. I have not shown down a hand yet, but have won a couple of pots without showing. Previously, MP called a 25xBB reraise after she raised PF, and has been raising strong hands. Field folds to me, my action?

I think you already know the answer. Reraise to about 25BB. What sorta raises are going for the norm?

Hand 2:
10xBB raise from EP/MPish, and an immediate call. I am the button with KK and a stack of about 120xBB. CO raises all-in for about 30xBB. I...?

Reraise to about 60. Gives someone else a chance of getting in but it'll probably just be HU anyone. Calling and folding are out of the question.

Hand 3 (this is the really interesting one):
Minraise from somewhere in early position and several cold callers. I am in the SB with AJo and call. BB (a solid player who has taken a few beats and may or may not be steaming) raises to 8xBB. Field folds to me and BB tells someone in EP that he has KQ before I complete my action. I believe him. I had intended to fold, but I call instead. Flop comes JTx. I think, then make somewhere around a pot-sized bet. BB immediately reraises all-in and has me covered. For various reasons I am no longer 100% sure of his holding (estimate somewhere around 70% certainty now), but I am still 100% sure he did not realize there was still a player to act when he announced it. There's a whole lot to think about here, thoughts?

Depends on your bankroll and emotional ability to take a loss here. If you figured him for KQ, you should have check-raised.

-'rilla

[journey075]

1.) she looks like she gets married to hands preflop. raise hard and get as many chips as possible in preflop.

2.) looks like its multiway, although you might be ahead of any one of them, KK is not a hand i want to all-in multiway. id probably muck.
edit: rilla's right, i forgot about re-raising. i still think id take a hit on the big pair here though.

3.)id be happy with either play. based on cards id fold, but theres a good chance hes semi-bluffing. id be more inclined to call.

[TylerK]

Live hands from Foxwoods this weekend. $1/$2 NLHE.

Hand 1:
Weak-tightie raises from MP, I am in the SB with AA. I have not shown down a hand yet, but have won a couple of pots without showing. Previously, MP called a 25xBB reraise after she raised PF, and has been raising strong hands. Field folds to me, my action?

I think you already know the answer. Reraise to about 25BB. What sorta raises are going for the norm?

About 10xBB is the average PFR.

Hand 3 (this is the really interesting one):
Minraise from somewhere in early position and several cold callers. I am in the SB with AJo and call. BB (a solid player who has taken a few beats and may or may not be steaming) raises to 8xBB. Field folds to me and BB tells someone in EP that he has KQ before I complete my action. I believe him. I had intended to fold, but I call instead. Flop comes JTx. I think, then make somewhere around a pot-sized bet. BB immediately reraises all-in and has me covered. For various reasons I am no longer 100% sure of his holding (estimate somewhere around 70% certainty now), but I am still 100% sure he did not realize there was still a player to act when he announced it. There's a whole lot to think about here, thoughts?

Depends on your bankroll and emotional ability to take a loss here. If you figured him for KQ, you should have check-raised.

-'rilla

Explain. This hand has a lot of levels of thought and a correct play takes a good amount of reasoning...I've been thinking about it since last night and I'm still not sure I've come up with a correct play.

[TylerK]

2.) looks like its multiway, although you might be ahead of any one of them, KK is not a hand i want to all-in multiway. id probably muck.
edit: rilla's right, i forgot about re-raising. i still think id take a hit on the big pair here though.

Weeeeeeak!

3.)id be happy with either play. based on cards id fold, but theres a good chance hes semi-bluffing. id be more inclined to call.

Use more levels in your reasoning.

If it helps, I've been playing with this guy for a while and I believe he sees me as a solid, reasonable player.

[TylerK]

An added something about hand 3: I didn't correctly calculate my equity at the table if he did have KQ (I don't remember if there was a flush draw on the board or not, so I assumed there was not). This is a LOT thinner than I thought I was against a presumed KQ at the time.

Board: Jh Th 3d
Hand 1: 51.8645 % [ 00.52 00.00 ] { AJo }
Hand 2: 48.1355 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { KQs, KQo }

[a500lbgorilla]

An added something about hand 3: I didn't correctly calculate my equity at the table if he did have KQ (I don't remember if there was a flush draw on the board or not, so I assumed there was not). This is a LOT thinner than I thought I was against a presumed KQ at the time.

Board: Jh Th 3d
Hand 1: 51.8645 % [ 00.52 00.00 ] { AJo }
Hand 2: 48.1355 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { KQs, KQo }

Well, the action fits right with the KQ that he announced preflop. When I said it depends on your roll and emotional state, that's becuase it's a volitial call. If you call, you're easily beat and there's a chance he was lying preflop.

If you can shake it off easily becuase you're having a good time, I'd call. But if your the old grumpy Tyler I know and love, you should fold and come to the boards and cry about it!

-'rilla

[TylerK]

Oh, another note about hand 1, villain is extremely passive postflop.

[a500lbgorilla]

Oh, another note about hand 1, villain is extremely passive postflop.

So then double it to 20 bb and take all villians money.

-'rilla

[journey075]

i dunno, ive seen so many hands (i think its a lot, some of you guys have probably seen plenty more than i have) that i think pushing preflop with kings is so marginal esp with 2 aggressors. its a game about pushing edges, i think you could control variance if you folded. thats my thinking anyhow.

thats one hell of a table you were on though, i dont think ive ever seen a 25xbb raise being called preflop at 1/2 nl.

anyway on hand 3, yeah youre a slight dog even though youre ahead...straight draw + overs. thats assuming youre ahead. folding might be the best idea but something bugs me about how he said he had KQ. i would probably call if for nothing else than to see if hes a straightforward person with calling his cards.

[a500lbgorilla]

i dunno, ive seen so many hands (i think its a lot, some of you guys have probably seen plenty more than i have) that i think pushing preflop with kings is so marginal esp with 2 aggressors. its a game about pushing edges, i think you could control variance if you folded. thats my thinking anyhow.

thats one hell of a table you were on though, i dont think ive ever seen a 25xbb raise being called preflop at 1/2 nl.

anyway on hand 3, yeah youre a slight dog even though youre ahead...straight draw + overs. thats assuming youre ahead. folding might be the best idea but something bugs me about how he said he had KQ. i would probably call if for nothing else than to see if hes a straightforward person with calling his cards.

If you continuously fold against a lot of aggression, the table is only going to be more aggressive against you.

-'rilla

[TylerK]

My thinking on hand 3 is as follows preflop:
-> There's a good chance he has the KQ. I am more than 50% certain at least.
-> If he has a different hand, it is more likely that he has a worse hand than a better hand.
-> Therefore, while I'm a coin flip against KQ after the flop, I am likely more ahead against a different hand.
-> He knows I do not have any hand that dominates KQ because I didn't raise preflop.
-> Therefore, my most likely holding is a small PP or an Ax.

Here's the key postflop bit.

-> Since he knows I will likely call his all-in with a naked ace or a small PP if I believe him on KQ (being on almost exactly a coinflip with dead money in the pot), he MUST have a hand with MORE pot equity than KQ against MY possible range of hands.

[Sykedupp]

So did you call? and what did he have?

[a500lbgorilla]

My thinking on hand 3 is as follows preflop:
-> There's a good chance he has the KQ. I am more than 50% certain at least.
-> If he has a different hand, it is more likely that he has a worse hand than a better hand.
-> Therefore, while I'm a coin flip against KQ after the flop, I am likely more ahead against a different hand.
-> He knows I do not have any hand that dominates KQ because I didn't raise preflop.
-> Therefore, my most likely holding is a small PP or an Ax.

Here's the key postflop bit.

-> Since he knows I will likely call his all-in with a naked ace or a small PP if I believe him on KQ (being on almost exactly a coinflip with dead money in the pot), he MUST have a hand with MORE pot equity than KQ against MY possible range of hands.

Tyler, I think I've found what may be the fatal flaw in your game.

Your approach to the game mentally is just a hop-skip and a jump ahead of your competition.

Don't equate to brilliance what can easily be explained with stupidity. He has a straight draw and thinks you're just trying to muscle him out since you know what he has. He won't be muscled!

Mr. Burns while watching Homer running in a circle while lying on his side after negotiating for the workers dental plan, "Mr. Smithers, I'm afriad my opponent was not the brilliant tactitioner I had thought him to be."

-'rilla

[TylerK]

My thinking on hand 3 is as follows preflop:
-> There's a good chance he has the KQ. I am more than 50% certain at least.
-> If he has a different hand, it is more likely that he has a worse hand than a better hand.
-> Therefore, while I'm a coin flip against KQ after the flop, I am likely more ahead against a different hand.
-> He knows I do not have any hand that dominates KQ because I didn't raise preflop.
-> Therefore, my most likely holding is a small PP or an Ax.

Here's the key postflop bit.

-> Since he knows I will likely call his all-in with a naked ace or a small PP if I believe him on KQ (being on almost exactly a coinflip with dead money in the pot), he MUST have a hand with MORE pot equity than KQ against MY possible range of hands.

Tyler, I think I've found what may be the fatal flaw in your game.

Your approach to the game mentally is just a hop-skip and a jump ahead of your competition.

Don't equate to brilliance what can easily be explained with stupidity. He has a straight draw and thinks you're just trying to muscle him out since you know what he has. He won't be muscled!

Mr. Burns while watching Homer running in a circle while lying on his side after negotiating for the workers dental plan, "Mr. Smithers, I'm afriad my opponent was not the brilliant tactitioner I had thought him to be."

-'rilla

I assigned the largest probability to the chance that this was the case. He was pretty sharp though. So say 70% that he has KQ, 20% that I have him dominated but he thinks he has me dominated, 10% that he does have me dominated with some odd holding. That makes me a reasonable favorite to win the hand.

[TylerK]

Results

Hand 1: I push, expecting a call a slight (maybe 55%) majority of the time. Villain goes in the tank for a LONG time and eventually mucks. I got the impression it was an AK. I still think I made the right play. I am forced to bet almost any flop out of position in a situation where villain is likely to instafold a whiff (or overcards on the flop if she has a pocket pair).

Hand 2: I push to isolate. Initial raiser and caller fold. Villain flips 99 and sucks out.

Hand 3: I call. Villain flips KJo and MHIG.