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What should I bet against a flush/straight draw?
I am feeling particularly dense about this, so I thought I would ask. What is the bet I should make to put a flush or straight draw at bad pot odds? I have been betting the pot, but I am thinking, "Is this enough?"
I am estimating 1/3 chance to pull a flush or straight on last two cards. Betting the pot makes it a 1 to 2 call with 1 to 2 to win (or a 33% call with 35% chance to win). Do I get the edge on the river by betting the pot again?
Here is a money example. $2 pot. I will bet $2 then $6. We are both betting $8 to win $18. This is a 44% call with a 35% chance to win for the draw and a 65% chance to win for me. This is definitely in my favor, but doesn't seem like very much of an edge.
Ok. What is the expected value of my example? The draw expects .35*$18 - $8 = -$1.7. I expect .65*$18 - $8 = +$3.7. Ok I feel better.
Is my thinking off here, or should I be betting a little more than the pot? (this could be problematic for me since I like to play pot limit!)
Thoughts, comments, suggestions?
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