"favorite" hands against the "best" hand

[jmontis]

The best hands are easy to play, you bet and give people odds to call, and usually win a small pot. Unless it's a monster worth slow playing, then it might be a bigger pot

But the "favorite" hands, in a raised multi-way pot, can win you a substantial amount sometimes.

The question is, how many outs do you consider push worthy, for it to be a +EV play if someone calls you. OESD or a flush draw alone are not worth it in my book. So how many outs make it +EV, say if you did it 100 times against AA?

[Admerylous]

Depends on the amount of money in the pot / up for winning relative to the hand.

[jmontis]

well, of course, but say it IS a raised pot and you have a hand like KQs, with flush draw, overcards, and a possible gutshot straight....

pot is say... $12, and the bet is $8 to you, what do you do.

[JeffreyGB]

Over the long term, you'll see most of your money from the big hands, not the ones that you draw out on. Talking to people on IRC, everyone agreed that over half - perhaps as high as 2/3 of wins came from AA/KK/AK/QQ. That matches up with the results I see in Poker Tracker for my last 14k hands as well.

[jmontis]

that's a given, everyone knows there's +EV in hands like AA KK etc,... but the question was directed towards huge drawing hands.

You don't see hands where you have 17-22 outs to win often, so I figure why not take a "gamble" and go for a big pot.

[JeffreyGB]

But the "favorite" hands, in a raised multi-way pot, are where the money is imo (long run wise).

I was responding to that...

[jmontis]

But the "favorite" hands, in a raised multi-way pot, are where the money is imo (long run wise).

I was responding to that...

I'll re-word it, didn't mean for it to sound like that's ONLY where profits come from.

My viewpoint is, when you get a MONSTER draw, say f'it and risk some chips for a positive expectation.

[JeffreyGB]

And yes, hands wherein you have a ton of outs to win, you want to push it as though you're ahead. Because you are, assuming your outs are live.

14 outs on the flop is the point at which you're better than 50% to make your draw.

[jmontis]

And yes, hands wherein you have a ton of outs to win, you want to push it as though you're ahead. Because you are, assuming your outs are live.

14 outs on the flop is the point at which you're better than 50% to make your draw.

that's what i wanted to know, thanks. I just didn't know how to figure out the exact math for that. I just know not to push on OESD or flush draws only

[Bmxicle]

And yes, hands wherein you have a ton of outs to win, you want to push it as though you're ahead. Because you are, assuming your outs are live.

14 outs on the flop is the point at which you're better than 50% to make your draw.

Not to mention the fold equity that pushing allin gives you too to take down the pot right there.

[Admerylous]

If you're over 50% to make the winning hand, push every single time! (If you can get callers or are forced to.)

[rdqlus]

A reason to play suited connectors in position in a raised pot:

If you flop a flush draw and a pair you're about 50% to beat an overpair. Push after the original PFR'er bets out.

The other reason ... this hand came up last night:

I'm dealt T8s on the button. 2 limps, CO (with 4xbuyin stack) raises 5xBB. I call and 2 limpers call. Flop gives me trip 8's. Limpers check, CO bets the pot, I re-raise to half my stack. Limpers fold. CO puts me all-in with his KK. Ship it

mj

[JeffreyGB]

A reason to play suited connectors in position in a raised pot:

If you flop a flush draw and a pair you're about 50% to beat an overpair. Push after the original PFR'er bets out.

The other reason ... this hand came up last night:

I'm dealt T8s on the button. 2 limps, CO (with 4xbuyin stack) raises 5xBB. I call and 2 limpers call. Flop gives me trip 8's. Limpers check, CO bets the pot, I re-raise to half my stack. Limpers fold. CO puts me all-in with his KK. Ship it

mj

Yes, in the short term plays like this will pay off sometimes. In the long term, that's not as likely. The reason is, you make a made hand with suited connectors 5% of the time. So you have to make at least 20 times the amount you bet in order to break even. If you can get lucky and call big bets within that 5% of the time, then sure, it can work (but again, this is LUCK). Also, if you had been the last limper to call (or had reads saying they would all call), then again, sure, the call was arguably ok (because the pot was so multiway that you aren't relying exclusively on post flop action to get you to that 20x).

Some of the worst decisions in poker come from one-time results oriented analysis.

[Bmxicle]

mmmm, open ended insurance.



PokerStars Game #1509705922: Tournament #6932394, Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2005/04/11 - 23:32:54 (ET)
Table '6932394 1' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 3: Bmxicle (4542 in chips)
Seat 4: LuvPhish (1241 in chips)
Seat 5: LadyZoo (3510 in chips)
Seat 7: Chisness (1775 in chips)
Seat 8: #23 BABY! (2432 in chips)
Chisness: posts small blind 75
#23 BABY!: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bmxicle [Jc Qc]
Bmxicle: raises 150 to 300
LuvPhish: calls 300
LadyZoo: calls 300
Chisness: folds
#23 BABY!: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [Kh Tc 6c]
#23 BABY!: checks
Bmxicle: bets 4242 and is all-in
LuvPhish: folds
LadyZoo: folds
#23 BABY!: folds
Bmxicle collected 1275 from pot
Bmxicle: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1275 | Rake 0
Board [Kh Tc 6c]
Seat 3: Bmxicle collected (1275)
Seat 4: LuvPhish folded on the Flop
Seat 5: LadyZoo (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: Chisness (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: #23 BABY! (big blind) folded on the Flop

[Admerylous]

I do not know about the pushing it all in and taking it down right there; but certainly was profitable.

[Greedo017]

I think hands that win big win big, and hands that win marginally win marginally. that's why, every time i flop in my two cents with 78s, i know, if i hit, i better extract extract extract, because i'm paying for 19 other calls where i miss. in the end, this will end up marginally +EV. Still worth doing though imo.

and, me personally i will push with 14 or more outs. 12 outs gets you to 50/50, but i really am not a 50/50 kinda guy, i like at least some advantage, so 14-15 is where i like to be to push the flop.