|
The Psychology of Waning Aggression
I've seen a number of posts where people compared aggro stats - usually a less experienced player asking for advice on his numbers from someone with more experience. Very frequently, the student shows numbers of increasing aggression while the poker-sage shows decreasing aggression - something like:
Student:
Flop 2.5
Turn 3.1
River 4.3
Poker-sage:
Flop 4.8
Turn 3.2
River 2.1
I just had an epiphany as to why this difference exists. An experienced player learns to be more and more cautious of his raises being called. Thus when he's bet hard on the flop and turn, he may check behind on the river, just in case. The student, however, may not have learned this lesson. Further, if a bluff is possible, I think it much more likely that an experienced player will pick up on this and pull it off earlier in the hand. Many students tend to wait for a significant display of weakness before trying for a pot wherein they don't expect to have the best hand.
Those are my thoughts...I've been more the student in that scenario than the sage. Is it better to try to pull bluffs earlier in the hand? Too transparent to pull them late? How often do you plop down the continuation bet after raising preflop and missing? Are there often problems with people calling/reraising such a bet when they otherwise wouldn't (and would have folded to the same bet on the turn)?
One thing I noticed this weekend is that I don't tend to play a continuation bet on a flop that I missed, especially if I'm out of position. Part of that is simply wanting to see what if my opponents hit anything and part of it is a voice in me that says "betting this flop is only going to look like a continuation bet, thus giving you callers and opening the door for big aggro players to try a reraise-steal." Do you fold to such a reraise? Rely on reads? How do you proceed on subsequent streets assuming you don't hit?
|