Losing to 4 of a kind - question about odds.

[hagakure]

This is sort of a spin off from another thread, but it brought up a big question for me. If there's a pair on the board somewhere and it's obvious I am on a flush draw or even a straight draw, sometimes I lay down my cards when im faced with some aggressive betting because im worried they may have a 4 of a kind.

My question is this: Simply put, what are the odds of making 4 of a kind on a hand on average?

Also, on average, how many spectacular hands (flushes, straights, boats) are beaten with 4 of a kinds?

[a500lbgorilla]

If you're worried that your opponents always have the nuts or near nuts, you're playing far too weak.

-'rilla

[hagakure]

That's what im asking. Im just trying to find out what the odds of making that hand would be. It's a leak in my game, no doubt about that.

[a500lbgorilla]

Very, very small.

-'rilla

[JeffreyGB]

Seriously, the odds of someone getting 4 of a kind are too miniscule to even factor in most of the time. You'll lose to a (higher) boat about 100,000 times more often, and that's still not enough reason to play timidly.

[Greedo017]

agreed, if you're gonna lose to anything, it will be a boat. i just took some poor sucker who i know made a straight or a flush. flop i had a set, turn i made a boat which i know gave him his flush/straight, river i made quads. quads didn't even matter, his ass was mine at a boat.

99% of the time that quad card won't come. bigger worry is full houses, even then... i'd only really fear one if i hit my flush and bet and he pushed deep money at me.

[hagakure]

Good advice Greedo and Jeffrey. I played a little more fearless of the quad last night and did ok. I ended the night 3.50 up on party's .50/1 game. That's significant for me considering I only played about 2 hours on one table. Thanks for the advice yall.

[JeffreyGB]

Are you properly bankrolled for a .5/1 game starting off? Assuming that's limit, you should have at least $200 (preferrably $300). If you're playing NL, you should have well over a grand (more like 3 if possible) before playing at that level. The swings will eat you alive if you're significantly short of that.

[Greedo017]

did you mean .05/.1? finishing up 3 bucks at a .5/1 table is definitely not significant....

and, btw, here's a little more perspective on the four of a kind thing. my numbers will be a little off but it'll give you a ballpark.

starting with a pocket pair, the odds of someone getting four of a kind is on the order of 1 in 4000 hands. so, sitting at a full ring game with 10 people, odds are you will see one four of a kind per 400 hands. that's about 1 four of a kind per 7-8 hours, for the whole table. less, considering that you will get them sometimes.
those numbers probably aren't exact, but that's a good ballpark.

[hagakure]

Thanks for the advice Greedo. I did mean the .50/1 table and, yes, it is very significant for me considering the way things have been going lately. Im not saying it suits anyone else here, but for me it's ok at this point.

[Gatlin Dan]

3.5BB/2.5hrs. It's going in the right direction, but there's a lot more profit there. Keep working to find leaks and the winnings will come up.

[ChezJ]

i have quads on the brain this month. i got quad aces TWICE in march, once online and once at a home game (last night). over the weekend, i hosted a home game where quads were dealt three times in one night. i also played online and got quad tens. the previous week, i saw quad kings, queens, and queens at various home games.

something is definitely strange about the universe this month... glad it's ending!

ChezJ

[mimmons775]

yeah you should be worried more about a full house then 4 of a kind