Analysis Please: Did I screw-up???

[stragf]

I've been playing 66 player/$30 buyin freeze out tourneys. Last night was my fourth tourney ever.
In my last four tourneys, (That's all I've played) I've placed 16/6/12/ and last night 6th.
We are down to six at the final table that started with 11., and and I'm 2nd last to ask before checking back to the button. I have 44,000 chips, guy to left of me(button) has 40000. We are midsize stacks, one other on the real short stack. Blinds are 2000/4000. I am dealt KQ suited. Three folds to me, and I bet 10,000. Good solid bet I thought (Harrington's 2-3X big blind strategy.) THe button is a loose, aggressive player who has had wild chip swings all night. We started at the same table at the beginning of the tourney, and I know he played alot of really loose stuff. He has much more experience than I do. He calls my 10K. Blinds fold. Flop is Jack Nine Two. I think this is a good flop for me. I bet another 10K to protect. I'm now committed for half my stack. He raises to 30(all-in). I call. He turns AJ and his jacks hold. I was left with 4K, and went out on my BB 3 hands later. Overall the table was playing quite tight at this point, and I thought I played it well. In hindsight, maybe not, because I sooooooo wanted to place in final three, and I think with my chip stack, I could have if I had tightened up and NOT played that hand. I think it was really the only hand that I got stuck on all night. Please give me feedback. Thanks all.
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[DWDuck]

Tough one. You didn't mention the suits on the flop... did you have a flush draw, or at least a backdoor flush draw?

You also didn't mention the stacks of the other people at the table. What was big stack at? This is important information.

At best you likely have 10 outs. 3 Qs, 3 Ks, 4 Ts plus maybe a backdoor flush out.

If you have a flush draw it's an easy call, so I'll assume you don't. You have about a 40% chance of hitting one of your outs. The pot is laying you better than 3:1 odds.... so you easily have odds to call. Other intangibles to consider. If you fold, you have 6xBB left, so you're in push/fold mode. If you call and hit an out, you have 90000 and can make a serious run at winning.

So with all that.... while I'd have difficulties doing it, I probably make that call.

Good question.

Darkwing

[homerdash]

One thing that I think it's important to illustrate is the fact that you didn't lose to a pair of jacks. You would have lost to ace high. I've read Harrington's book too and you should know that KQ is not a very good hand. The raise preflop is questionable, since the LAgg (and you've even identified him as such) has position on you and you're not looking to see a flop, you want those tasty blinds (over 10% of your stack). You can figure that he's gonna come after you with any sort of decent holding.

Postflop, I think you have to give it up. As you realized, making a continuation bet is a chunk of your stack but you shouldn't have felt "committed" for the rest of your stack, it's more whether you want to take unfavorable odds for it. If you fold and escape with 20000, that's enough to steal blinds preflop and if you double after stealing once or twice, you're right back in it. I don't like having my tournament life on the line with the percentages not in my favor. Not to mention your outs weren't necessarily clean, AK/AQ/KJ/QJ/QT all make you a horrible underdog.

[chardrian]

you should know that KQ is not a very good hand.

KQ is not a GREAT hand - it is a very good hand. Yes it can be dominated preflop, but so can every other hand except AA.

However, this flop was the opposite of good. The guy (although loose) called you - so I would put him on AT suited or higher, PPs, or suited connectors. I don't think Darkwing emphasized the at best part of the at best you have 10 outs enough. This is absolute best case scenario. worst case scenario is 4 outs, but most likely is 7 (4 Ts and 3 of either your Q or K). I.e. the chance of him having JQ or JK is purty good or his having TQ or even TK meaning the Q or K sinks u is also decent. I don't like 7 outs when I still have enough chips to battle with - I woulda checked that flop and hoped for a free card.

[DWDuck]

I've read Harrington's book too and you should know that KQ is not a very good hand. The raise preflop is questionable

Wow. When Harrington talks about KQ not being a good hand, he's referring to early in the tourny with a full table. You're on the final table here with 6 players. KQ in the CO position is a great hand. If you're not raising with this, what are you waiting for? I'm raising with any high card here.

Early in the game when the table folds to me I'm raising with KQo too... I'd just be more careful postflop in that case.

I can see your argument postflop. Personally I think you have to make the continuation bet postflop. The board isn't that scary. Check/folding here is far too weak, and you won't win if you make plays like this. When the button pushes... well this is the only difficult decision of the whole hand I think. If you fold, your chances of winning are slim at best. With only 6xBB left, you're most likely going to finish 6th, which is where you finish if you call and lose. Call and win, and you have a decent chance for first.

With the stack you have left and the odds, I think it's a call.

Darkwing

[DWDuck]

However, this flop was the opposite of good. The guy (although loose) called you - so I would put him on AT suited or higher, PPs, or suited connectors. I don't think Darkwing emphasized the at best part of the at best you have 10 outs enough. This is absolute best case scenario. worst case scenario is 4 outs, but most likely is 7 (4 Ts and 3 of either your Q or K). I.e. the chance of him having JQ or JK is purty good or his having TQ or even TK meaning the Q or K sinks u is also decent. I don't like 7 outs when I still have enough chips to battle with - I woulda checked that flop and hoped for a free card.

True enough... although with the read on this guy, the ranges of hands he could be on vary greatly. It's possible that Hero is ahead here. This still depends largely on the other stack sizes for me. With 34000 left you're under 10xBB. If he folds at all postflop, he's in push/fold territory anyways. Perhaps the other answer is to push the flop instead of just putting out a continuation bet. In this case the result is the same, but perhaps he chases out AK, AQ, AT and pocket pairs in another game.

Darkwing

[chardrian]

Gotta give me a good . I got caught up in the QK thing - I read it as 66 players left - didn't read that you started with 66 and were now down to 6. The 10,000 bet I woulda made at least 12,000 (maybe even just pushed) to start (although not a huge deal). Yes you gotta bet that flop with just six left - every hand is now crucial so no displaying weakness here. And... yes I probably woulda called his push here (you have now shortstacked yourself no matter what so yeah go for the win).

[stragf]

Thanks for the great input. I was out of position, and I guess I got a bit excited. Once I realized I was committed on 50% of my stack, I kept going. And, if you want to hear something really dumb, I've been to final table twice in my first four tourneys, and right now after the beat last night, it feels like I'll never get there again.
I though QK suited was a damn good hand at this point, 5 hours after start and 60 bodies in the ditch. In hindsight, I likely jumped a little quickly. Maybe that's the lesson I will learn.
C'est la vie.

[homerdash]

I've read Harrington's book too and you should know that KQ is not a very good hand. The raise preflop is questionable

Wow. When Harrington talks about KQ not being a good hand, he's referring to early in the tourny with a full table. You're on the final table here with 6 players. KQ in the CO position is a great hand. If you're not raising with this, what are you waiting for? I'm raising with any high card here.

If you fold, your chances of winning are slim at best. With only 6xBB left, you're most likely going to finish 6th, which is where you finish if you call and lose. Call and win, and you have a decent chance for first.

With the stack you have left and the odds, I think it's a call.

Sorry for misspeaking, I wasn't even parroting the book. But it's not a great hand in this situation. You have a player directly on your left who will call your raise with something playable. You're putting 25% of your stack in and it's not even a full 3BB raise. And you don't hit jack shit on the flop. You're behind ace high, any pair, and straight draws are taking your overcards away. Why invest any more money in what is likely a losing situation? Hero had the read on villain that he had been taking big swings for the whole tourney and since villain seems to be on a downswing here with only having ~10BB left, it's reasonable to assume that the villain will not be playing any 2 cards here or pushing without some sort of a hand.

Also, it can't be said that he would most likely finish 6th, we still don't know the stack sizes at the table and the position they're in. If there's other short stacks, it makes sense to fold and try to outlast them. With the amount of the buy-in, I've got to figure that the prize gap between places is pretty large. You've still got chips if you lay it down and you've still got a chance. Remember, a lot of the outs could have very well been tainted.

[stragf]

That's what makes it interesting. No one agrees totally. I think I bruised my ego a bit. LOL I think I'm playing reasonably well given my placement in all four tourneys. I just need to sharpen up a bit and control the jitters. That's assuming my wife let's me play! She thinks it is a total waste of time/money, and I've not been able to explain the nuances of the game. Anyone else have a wife issue? LOL. How do you address it? Anyways, that's another topic. My play wasn't a 10 on that hand, but I think it was better than a four. In the great scheme of things, it really doesn't matter.

[DWDuck]

Sorry for misspeaking, I wasn't even parroting the book. But it's not a great hand in this situation. You have a player directly on your left who will call your raise with something playable.

That's what I think makes it a great hand! I'm still talking preflop here.... most people would make the call with AK, AQ, AA... other great hands. This guy will probably make the call with KJ, KT, QT... lots of other hands. So preflop you love this hand. I'd probably bet a bit more there as well.

Postflop, you're right. I can't assume he'll finish 6th with the stack he has left. I'm making an assumption there are far bigger stacks at the table though. The chances that everybody has less than 10xBB is very small. His chances of winning with a 90K stack are FAR bigger than his chances of winning with a 30K stack. If his odds of getting that 90K stack are good enough, the call has to be made. Apparently we differ on what those odds should be, and that's what makes poker so fun.

Maybe after I read Harrington's sections on inflection points in Volume II I'll be able to make my answer sound better.

Darkwing
[edit: yay, 100th post! ]

[chardrian]

That's assuming my wife let's me play! She thinks it is a total waste of time/money, and I've not been able to explain the nuances of the game. Anyone else have a wife issue? LOL. How do you address it?

My wife too thought this whole online thing was pure luck. I got $200 to play with for my b-day. I turned into $3,000 got cocky and lost it all (I hadn'tfound this site yet about BR management). I got another $200 for Christmas. Have again turned it into over $3,000 (I'm close to $4,000 now) and am purty confident I won't be losing it this time. My wife now calls it funny money. I can do whatever I want with the bankroll, but as soon as I withdraw it it becomes hers/ours (i.e. no longer funny money). After winning my first (and at this point only) MTT in April I withdrew those winnings and we bought a new dining room table - so she is no longer so upset about my playing.

[ZenOffsuit]

Agree witht the pre-flop raise. I would never have called that all-in. Unless you were four to a flush or straight or felt your opponent missed the flop and was bluffing.

What hands did you put him on? Even if he was bluffing with A/10.....you are still behind.

[homerdash]

Maybe after I read Harrington's sections on inflection points in Volume II I'll be able to make my answer sound better.

word to Vol. 2 coming out very soon, I think that book is going to have some fresh stuff in it.

[DWDuck]

What hands did you put him on? Even if he was bluffing with A/10.....you are still behind.

Any drawing hand you're behind on when you call.... if you put the guy on AT or AJ, you have less than 1.5:1 odds to call with the pot laying you better than 3:1 odds. Maybe I'm insane, but at this stage with those stacks, I'm throwing my chips in.

OTOH, if I'm willing to call that, I'd be pushing the flop anyways. I think that would have been a FAR better move then betting $10,000 and calling the push. If you're willing to call his push, get your chips in right away to give him the chance of folding. Let him make the difficult decision.

Darkwing

[Staple Gun]

I think I would have just checked the flop. You cant expect him to just call you 10k, If he dosnt fold its almost always gonna be a push here i think. If he does call then I would say your in even more trouble (99 or JJ maybe). I dont think it was a good flop to bet at, and he might have even checked if you checked.