Cutting off pot odds

[FishMagician]

Ok, let's take a typical flop situation, you've got tptk, 2 suited on the board, you want to chase flush draws.. When I'm in this situation, I generally bet half the pot. If they call and no third suited card comes, I once again bet half the pot on the turn. My reasoning behind this is that they're getting about 5-1 to make it on the turn and then 5-1 again to make it on the river, so by giving them 3-1 each time, I'm making them make incorrect plays if they call. Am I wrong?

I was discussing this with a poker buddy and he's sure I need to bet more on the flop because he's using my opponent's odds to make it on the turn OR river. But I think the fact that I get to bet again on the turn makes those odds irrelevant.

Note that this is ring games only. I blitzkrieg flush draws in tourneys.

[Pyroxene]

Well, assuming you do not have any cards to the flush then your opponent has 9 outs to the flush with 45 unknown cards (44 at the turn). So he has 4:1 odds or slightly better to the flish.

However, here is something for you to consider. On a reasonably regular basis an opponent will have a flush draw and 2nd or 3rd pair. Something like going in with Jc9c and the board comes 2c 9s Kc (and you have AsKs giving you TPTK). While your opponent has 9 outs to the flush, he has an additonal 2 outs to trips and 3 more outs to two pair. Suddenly he has 14 outs with 45 unknown cards (44 at the turn). This is a 2.2:1 call and your 1/2 pot bet gives him 3:1 pot odds. That is a money making call for him. That is why a lot of people go with the pot bet, lowering the pot odds to 2:1, making it a money losing call for the opponent.

[FishMagician]

Hmm. It's pretty amazing to me that I've been figuring flush draws at 5-1 this whole time. Thanks for the help.

[dalecooper]

I recommend at least a 2/3 pot bet most of the time. I only really use weaker bets to spur action (or to bluff the action bet, against a smart opponent). 2/3 of the pot provides pretty bad pot odds for most draws; it's callable to them but they're essentially paying you to draw. This is a delicate grey area though, where if they call and hit the draw, you have to fold when they hit. If you pay them off too much you end up losing money.

A full pot bet (or even an overbet) will chase them off more regularly, but it also costs you more if you are called and they hit - or if you are raised by a better hand. To me the sweet spot for maximum bang for the buck is about 2/3 to 3/4 of the pot.

[ChezJ]

keep it simple and bet the pot. fish will call you anyway!

the other thing to keep in mind is that if you only bet 1/2 the pot, giving the chaser 3:1, a smart player may call figuring he has implied odds if he catches his flush.

ChezJ

[Iconoclastic]

Of course the caller has implied odds. Are you telling me that whenever the third flush card comes on the turn or river you're check-folding to anything?!?

[dalecooper]

Of course the caller has implied odds. Are you telling me that whenever the third flush card comes on the turn or river you're check-folding to anything?!?

Depends on my holdings and their bet. I don't like blindly throwing money down a hole and crossing my fingers. If I have seen a guy chase a couple flushes already, and he's in a pot calling all my bets with two spades on the board, and then when the third spade comes out he bets big or raises me big - yes, I'm probably throwing my top pair hand away. Sometimes you call because you have sufficient pot odds, even though you think you're beat; sometimes you call because you think he's bluffing; sometimes you call just to keep 'em honest, and because you really don't have a read. But yes, sometimes Mr. Chaser did hit his flush, and if you insist on paying him off every time he hits it, he'll keep chasing.

[RiverMonkey]

Let's agree on the flush-draw card odds first.

If someone flops a 4-flush (2 of one suit in their hand, and two of that same suit on board), then they are 1.86:1 against to hit the 5th card of that suit BY the river. (That's with two cards to come!) (that's a 35% probability. That is, the flush hits once out of every 2.86 draws all the way to the river). "By the river", is equivalent to saying "on the turn OR river".

BTW, the 1.86:1 odds against comes from using the following formula (which deals in probabilities) and converting to odds:

Prob_ByRiver = outs/47 + (outs/46*(1-outs/47))

The next natural questions are:

(i) what are the odds against hitting on the next card with two to come
(ii) what are the odds against hitting on the river card, with one card to come.

(i) 47 (52 - 2 - 3) unseen cards, of which, 9 that help (assuming all 9 outs are clean). So, odds against hitting ON the turn are (47-9):9 or 38:9, or about 4.22:1

(ii) 46 unseen cards (52 - 2 - 3) unseen cards, of which, 9 that help (again, assuming all outs are still clean). So odds against hitting ON the river are (46-9):9, or about 4.11:1

Quite often, I see all three of these numbers get thrown around with ambiguity. That can lead to some poor poker decisions.

Use 1.86:1 if you are on the flop, and you plan on taking your draw all the way to the river, but you need to compare it to your effective pot odds, not your immediate ones. This requires making assumptions about future action in the hand.

Use 4.11:1 if you plan on only taking your flush draw to the turn and compare that to the immediate flop-to-turn pot odds you are getting.,

Use 4.22:1 if you are on the turn, haven't hit your flush yet and you are deciding whether to call to see the river card. Compare this to the immediate turn-to-river pot odds you are getting.

Also, don't forget that implied odds (i.e. getting paid off if you hit) can afford your some forgiveness if the pot isn't currently offering you enough to call.

Hope this helps.

[RiverMonkey]

Hmm. It's pretty amazing to me that I've been figuring flush draws at 5-1 this whole time. Thanks for the help.

This may have come from making the following incorrect calcuation: 47 unseen cards, 9 outs, so my immediate odds against are 47:9, when in fact they are (47-9):9 against.

BTW, in a heads-up situation, I'm pretty sure a 1/2 pot bet on the flop is not enough to detroy a flush draws odds. It's a little more complicated than this, but giving them 3:1 on their call gives them enough overlay relative to 1.86:1 card odds.

Actually, the flush draw has odds to chase if:

outs*(effective pot odds - 1) > # of unseen cards.

The tricky part (I'm too lazy to do it right now) is coming up with an expression for 'effective pot odds' as a function of the protector's flop bet (expressed as current pot size * m, where m is some multiple of the pot size going into the flop). You also have to make assumptions about pot-flop action to determine the eventual pot size. Then it's just a matter of algebra to solve for the value of m that would make the flush draws EV = 0 .... then any m greater than that value would destroy the flush draws odds and make their play EV -'ve.

[FishMagician]

I agree. The fact that I was using incorrect odds completely blows any reasonable argument I could make for betting 1/2 the pot.

[thestrokes]

When I have the flush draw and someone bets half the pot giving me 3:1 should I figure thats bad odds, I am getting 4:1 by the next card, or should I figure that is good odds, I am getting about 2:1 by the river?

Im guessing its the first, because if someone makes a big raise on the run i would be effectively "screwed," but i am just checking

[RiverMonkey]

It depends!

It depends on what you think the future action will be, and whether you plan on taking your draw to the river, or just taking ONE off.

Sure you are getting 1.86:1 against BY the river, and perhaps you're getting the odds to see the next card, but if it doesn't come on the turn, your opponent could make a huge bet on the turn and ruin your odds for seeing the river card.

In other words, this is where you have to consider implied AND reverse implied odds which requires you to make educated assumptions about future action from your opponent(s). You have to think about how the whole hand might play out rather than just each street individually.

I hope this helps.

[jmontis]

it does depend, a lot

on dangerous flops, or small/straight/flush connecting flops, i'll let a big pair go easily. Itll save you money.

TPTK is valuable on a K72 rainbow type flop, but something like JT9 2 suited, ehh just spare yourself the anguish and wait for another hand.