SMALLEST POCKET I CAN RE_RAISE WITH?

[BILLABONG]

As of right now the only hands I re-raise with are QQ,KK,AA,and AK.

But a situation arrised in a tournament just a minute ago.The tournament just began I had 1500 in late position and my opponent had 1500 in early position and raised 10-20 blinds to 120.I folded,I think calling is weak because if i call,56% of the time, a card higher then a jack (qka) will appear on the flop like ive stated in a previous post. Which means more then likely a overcard will show and when my opponent bets ill be forced to fold losing my money. And hitting a jack on the flop (trips) is about 12% which would be mathemitcally incorrect to call that kinda raise.

now I could re-raise to about 480 and more then likely if he has QQ,KK,AA he'll push and ill have to fold. But if he has a smaller pocket like TT or lower, hell call and probably bet the flop,and if the flop happens to be all unders, I can re-raise but that would pretty much put me all in.Or if he checks and i bet,hell probably come over the top of me, and ill probably have him beat...but then again he could have slowplayed QQ,KK,or AA.......What do I do?

[Fortune 500]

Reraise him to 360 or more. Jacks are a good hand, but you certainly don't want to cold call him here. You've got to reraise (assuming he's a good player) to get a read. If he plays back, you're probably beat here. If he smooth calls, you've got to worry about the slowplay, but it's a less likely option. Let's assume he has aces. He raises to 120. You shove back with 360. If he's got a hand that'll beat you, he's probably putting it all in the middle. If it's mediocre, he'll probably limp and try to set. So, beware that unders board. You've certainly got to bet, but don't discount the fact that he might have tripped up.

It's nothing you haven't already noted, of course... but you've got to remember that you're very early and the opponent is PROBABLY just on a couple overs and trying to buy a pot. if it were later and you had a good read on him, you cn lay it down, but I think you have to reraise. If nothing else, you've got position on him Post Flop and might be able to outplay him there.

[BILLABONG]

SO then if you think I can RE-raise with jacks usually winning off just power from them folding,or I myself folding due to them coming back over the top,...I should be able to RE-raise any pocket pair even deuces no?

[Fortune 500]

No. To lump JJ with dueces is silly. A pair's strength is determined by the number of overs that can hit on the flop. There's a chance you'll see overs on the flop with jacks... but with twos, it's a mathematical gaurantee. 2s are only valuable to hit a set. Js have an inherent value on their own.

In theory you COULD re-raise with dueces... but if your opponent limps, any FLOP scares you. With Js, you're in good position with a limp to win, even if the overs hit. If he's got a lower pair, he has to fold on a QKA board.

So what's the lowest hand you can reraise with? I don't know. At that point with no read, I'd reraise as low as 9s. Later, with reads, the requirements get higher.

Just my opinion... what do I know?

[BILLABONG]

Yes,but if Ak is strong enough to re-raise with in late position and bluff the flop when I miss( power), why cant I re-raise with deuces and bluff the flop when i dont hit a set?

[DaNutsInYoEye]

I folded,I think calling is weak because if i call,56% of the time, a card higher then a jack (qka) will appear on the flop like ive stated in a previous post.

And hitting a jack on the flop (trips) is about 12% which would be mathemitcally incorrect to call that kinda raise.

You're right... but you need to quit thinking like this so much. The statistics are great for you in the beginning, but after awhile you need to learn to rely more on position, your reads (I know it was early in the tournament), stack sizes (Again, I know it's early) and basically just gut feelings. NL is so much more about the feel of the game than if the pot needs to be 11.738 more chips to justify a call.

You seem to be caught up in what to do in this particular situation or that situation. My best suggestion ot you is to play as many hands as you possibly can and to play them in different ways. After awhile things will just be second nature to you.

[elipsesjeff]

smallest possible is 22, only because you cant go any lower.

[JeffreyGB]

I folded,I think calling is weak because if i call,56% of the time, a card higher then a jack (qka) will appear on the flop

I think it was mentioned in the previous post to which you refer, but just because there's a chance that an over can appear, doesn't mean that your opponent will have you beat when it does. He doesn't know that you have jacks. It's not unlikely that he'll be scared when one comes as well. Added to this, if he does hold an over, that decreases the likelihood that his over is going to come. When it's you against one other player, JJ is not a weak hand! It wins well over half the time. Without reads, the hand is neither strong enough nor weak enough to do anything but reraise for more info.

- Jeffrey

[JeffreyGB]

And btw, if I figured it right, there's only a 35% chance that an over will hit on the flop AND your opponent has one (chance he has one [12/50+12/49] * chance one will hit [11/48+11/47+11/46]). And even still, when that happens it's far more likely that one of the overs that is not his will hit.

I know I'm overlooking the possibility of him having two overs, but it's late and I don't want to mess with it right now

- Jeffrey

[JeffreyGB]

Kept thinking after I went to bed. Here are more numbers:
Chance he'll have a specific over is 4/50+ 4/49 = 16.2%. Chance that said specific over will hit = 3/48 + 3/47 + 3/46 + 3/45 + 3/44= 32.7%. Chance that both will happen in the same hand = .162 * .327 = 5.3%. Now then, since there are three overs you're concerned with, we have to do this 3 times which, naturally, gives us 15.9% chance that he'll have any one of the overs above you and it will hit by the river. I'd say your 20.8% chance of a set effectively counteracts this. So your only worries are him having two overs or him having pocket overs.

Even adding in the chance of him having a pocket pair of overs (just add 3/49 to the hit %) only brings the cumulative total to 18.8%. Still covered by the likelihood of hitting a set.

Is it possible for that to happen? Yes. Does his raise make it more likely? Yes. But with the amount of info you have for certain, I can in no way justify folding.

- Jeffrey

[runen]

Your calculations are off. You have to remember that you can't just add probabilities when they are dependant on each other. It might work well for a quick approximation of a simple probability, but when the calculations get more complicated you will be way off.

The chance the opponent has an overcard is NOT 12/50 + 12/49 = 48,5%.
It is: 1 - 38/50 * 37/49 = 42,6%

The chance the opponent has a specific overcard is NOT 4/50 + 4/49 = 16,2%
It is: 1 - 46/50 * 45/49 = 15,5%

The chance the opponent overcard will hit is NOT (assuming he has EXACTLY one specific overcard) 11/48 + 11/47 + 11/46 = 70,2%
It is: 1-45/48*44/47*43/46 = 18,0%

These numbers can't just be multiplied, since you don't take into account if he has 2 of the same overcards.

I'd do it like this:

The chance the opponent has 2 of the same overcard:
(a) 12/50 * 3/49 = 1,47%

The chance the opponent has 2 different overcards:
(b) 12/50 * 8/49 = 39,18%

The chance the opponent has at least 1 overcard:
(c) 1 - 38/50 * 37/49 = 42,61%

The chance the opponent has precisely 1 overcard:
(d) c - b - a = 37,22%

Now you have to look at the chance of one of his overcards flopping if he has 2 identical overcards, 2 different overcards or 1 overcard.

If he holds 2 identical overcards, the chance of one flopping is:
(A) 1 - 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46 = 12,23%

If he holds 2 different overcards, the chance of one flopping is:
(B) 1 - 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 = 33,63%

If he holds exactly 1 overcard, the chance of one flopping is:
(D) 1 - 45/48 * 44/47 * 43/46 = 17,96%

Therefore the chance of the opponent holding an overcard which flops is:
(a) * (A) + (b) * (B) + (d) * (D) = 8,18%

Since you have already lost if he holds 2 identical overcards, it doesn't matter if the overcard flops or not, so the more interesting number is:
(a) + (b) * (B) + (d) * (D) = 9,47%

There might be a simpler way to calculate this, but I couldn't figure it out.

Feel free to correct any miscalculations.

/Rune

[runen]

Made a Java program, which tries to calculate the %'s through iterations. Seems to consistently end up with ~7,5% and ~8,8% for the percentages specified above, so for some reason I am 0,5% off...

Either a bug in my Java code or a fault in the reasoning above... Can anyone see any flaws in the calculations above?

[SteveO]

Screw the calculations. You just need to have a general idea. It was said above but all that matters is position, stack size and stage in tournament.

1. Your image. not very important here b/c the table will probably break up and no one will remember but sometimes you may want to mix it up early to show your opponents that you won't get run over.

2. Stage in game. Do you want to lose a significant # of chips early on w/ JJ? Maybe. 120 raise can mean a lot of wild hands online. You are way ahead of many that come to mind like middle PP, AQ through A10 etc... With that said, it is certainly fine to re-raise w/ the JJ. If he comes over the top AI it is an easy lay down. You definitly want to take a flop especially because he acts first on the flop. If he shows a hint of weakness w/ a weak bet or a check you can fire out at him with a continuation bet and probably pick up the pot.

The only legitimate concern w/ JJ in that situation is you probably don't want to get all of your chips in the pot if overs hit the board.

I've been AI on the first and second hand of a tournament w/ 1010 and JJ. Not a very conservative play and unwise in many situations but I knew my opponents were raising with Amedium and other trash and they would call my big bet. I'll take that chance at a chance for a double up.

[mimmons775]

If you only reraise with AA,KK,QQ,and AK then your giving away your hand everytime, people will eventually catch on to your betting patterns. switch it up a bit

[Joke]

your calculations does not have anything to do with reality im sry to say... If you hold jacks and get re-raised by someone early position its about 100% "risk" that he will infact hold an overcard, if he's not a complete mofo. So those 9% are off, eventough jacks is a very good hand.

/sry spelling ;p

[JeffreyGB]

Early in a tournament, many people do some crazy things to try to start building a chip lead. It may be more likely that he has an overcard than the stats figured above, but it's definitely not a 100% risk. Even if he does, JJ is a made hand at this point. It beats a single overcard unless that same card hits on the board, which is where a lot of the stats above DO figure in to the question. Further, there's that (12% on the flop; 20% by the river) chance of hitting trips. For 120 early on, this is not a fold situation. If the opp re-reraises, it becomes that, but as it stands, no way should you fold.

- Jeffrey