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Damn, the result was posted before I could post. I was going to say I'd do exactly the same thing you did. Without considering his position I'd be putting him on a 4, and with considering it I'd be putting him on a PP (which would likely be lower than yours since he just limped along) or a flush draw.
The reason being is that in my experience players barely ever raise big with a flopped set when they're using a board pair, on the flop. They at least wait until the turn, as they want to make money of the hand and typically a bet like that would scare everyone out of the pot. Putting him on a boat is pretty silly as players almost never reraise on the flop with a boat.
I know it sounds crazy to say that I'd be putting him on a 4, but I really do find that raises in these type of cases (especially if you raised preflop and then lead at the flop) are typically hands with the other card on the paired flop, representing the board set but still having a possibility of having the best hand. Its what I was thinking he had just by looking at his flop raise and not by where he called from preflop, which makes his play a bit strange, but I really think his post flop play is pretty standard for a lot of aggressive players.
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